What do I know, anyway? A year ago in this same column, I made some good calls, including predicting that the U.S. TikTok deal timeline would go into overtime and concert ticket prices would continue to rise. I also whiffed on a few things, including a prediction that the Trump administration would settle the Justice Department’s antitrust case against Live Nation. So: A little. In fairness, though, Trump doesn’t do predictable. As recently as late-2025 — it feels like last week because it is! — he hadn’t even said anything about running Venezuela.

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By next year, AI might be writing this column. For now, though, here are 10 predictions for the music business in 2026.

Everyone will keep talking about the potential of AI

At some point, AI will change the nature of work — at least office work, anyway. For now, expectations are sending the values of some technology stocks high enough to affect the entire market. So the potential of AI to change music will remain a vital topic. In 2026, though, it will remain just that — potential. It’s a valuable creative tool, at least until more creators use it in more interesting ways.

The Live Nation case will heat up

Yes, this is the opposite of what I said last year. But if the Justice Department didn’t settle the case last year, it’s hard to imagine it doing so now. Fanimal’s recent case against the company shows there could be more lawsuits ahead, and high ticket prices will keep fans upset, even though that has more to do with the appeal of live entertainment than the industry’s business practices.

Universal’s Downtown deal will go through — as will others

UMG’s acquisition of Downtown, now being scrutinized by European regulators, has been portrayed as the worst thing in the history of ever, as well as not such a big deal after all. Neither of these things are true. But it looks like the deal will be approved, although UMG may be required to sell off parts of the company. This could spark another round of corporate acquisitions in the music business — especially now that U.S. regulators’ attention is focused on the sale of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Distributors will become labels — and vice versa

Once upon a time, there was a clear line between distributors and labels — and only the latter made big investments and took big risks. Now, both distributors and labels pursue deals that blur the lines between them — the former want higher margins, the latter more market share. In some cases, this will be great for artists, who will have more ways to negotiate agreements that work for them. In others, acts will find these deals harder to leave in a practical way than they initially thought.

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Hip-hop will keep sliding — but remain very popular

This fall, on the chart dated Oct. 25, there were no hip-hop singles in the top 40 of the Hot 100 for the first time since 1990, and the market share of current R&B/hip-hop has fallen. But this is partly a matter of measurement: Fewer songs moving down the Hot 100 qualify for the chart if they fall below a certain number after a certain amount of time. Hip-hop still thrives as catalog, which now dominates streaming. This could very well continue as genres like Latin and rock gain market share. And hip-hop, like rock before it, has become so popular that its influence can be heard in every genre.

The world will keep getting bigger

The music business isn’t big on “America first” — international music is gaining market share around the world. That’s also true of music from the Anglosphere that once shaped pop culture. Latin music is booming, but most countries in Europe are also consuming more of what they call “local repertoire.” This isn’t a return to tradition — in many places the biggest gains have gone to local-language hip-hop — but rather the inevitable result of more mobile populations and more competition from more countries. Foreign-language global superstars, like BTS, will probably remain the exception — but local stars will become more dominant.

At least one big artist will look out on some empty seats

Since the pandemic ended, concert ticket prices have skyrocketed, without much of a fall in demand. This will continue — mostly. But in 2026, at least one big artist will put tickets on sale, only to find that his or her team has overpriced them, overestimated demand or some mix of the two. This will be embarrassing, and it will be cited as evidence that ticket prices have peaked. That may not be so, generally speaking. But promoters will start to price more carefully, keep dynamic options open for the downside or think more carefully about the economics of different markets.

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The physical business will stay K-shaped – and K-pop-shaped

Music has never been cheaper — or more expensive. Even as more people than ever use streaming services, either for free or about $12 a month, labels and licensing companies are introducing audiophile vinyl products that cost more than $100. Records and CDs are becoming part of the merchandise business for some acts. This is a good thing — fans are best served with products at every price point — but some fans will feel left out.

Synchs will continue to drive streaming gains

There may never be another “Running Up That Hill,” an old song that becomes a huge hit after its use as a synch, partly because so few popular series rely so much on music. But as the sheer amount of music available online continues to grow, synchs are becoming a more important way to boost the popularity of older recordings — and get paid for it at the same time. The latest evidence: A streaming boom for David Bowie’s “Heroes,” which played over the end credits of the final episode of Stranger Things. I think ‘80s and ‘90s catalog will do especially well.

Artists’ politics will upset some fans — without serious consequences

Safest bet ever: Nicki Minaj will not be deported. Indeed, what has been made to seem like a significant backlash against Minaj for appearing at a Turning Point USA event just isn’t that big a deal: The petition to deport Minaj has just over 50,000 signatures, which is fewer people than the rapper drew to four New York shows last year. Most fans like their favorite artists’ music enough to forgive their missteps.

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