10 Red Wings thoughts at midseason: What will Detroit's second half bring?
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Max Bultman
It's been a dream first half for Detroit, as the Red Wings sit atop the Atlantic Division with 51 points after a 2-1 win over the Jets.
DETROIT — The Red Wings are at the midpoint of the 2025-26 NHL season after a 2-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday night.
It’s been a dream first half for Detroit in many ways, as the Red Wings sit atop the Atlantic Division with 51 points. For a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, that’s been a breath of fresh air.
So what’s gone well? And what will the Red Wings need to keep it up in the second half?
Here are 10 thoughts at the season’s midpoint.
1. The story of the first half for the Red Wings — besides being atop their division — was the dominance of their top defense pair.
Since Todd McLellan put Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson together on a full-time basis, they have blossomed into one of the truly elite defense pairings in the league, with a five-on-five expected goals share above 61 percent entering Wednesday. That ranked sixth among defense pairings with at least 100 minutes played together, and those two had played 499. The next-highest workload in the top 10 was 313 minutes.
There are some obvious reasons for their success: Their combination of size and mobility makes them a nightmare for opponents on the rush, and both are poised and highly capable with the puck on breakouts. That’s the recipe for an elite shutdown pairing, as Shayna Goldman laid out in more depth this week.
They’ve also chipped in some offense, with Seider up to 31 points in 41 games, and already only two off his career high in goals (nine). That added offense, combined with the elite defense, has made Seider a legit Norris Trophy candidate, and Edvinsson looks headed on a high-end trajectory as well. Those two look like they’ll be the foundation of the Red Wings for a long time to come.
2. While Seider is getting most of the awards attention in Detroit, there is one more candidate whom I’d imagine you’ll hear some buzz for if the Red Wings’ results keep up: McLellan.
The Jack Adams Award tends to find its way to the coach of the team that most exceeded preseason expectations, and the Red Wings are in that mix right now, as division leaders after nine consecutive years outside the playoffs.
McLellan has been in Detroit for a year now, and for me, his impact has been most clear in the Red Wings’ improving mental game. I didn’t like their third period to close out Wednesday’s win, but in general, they’ve kept a much more even keel both in games and going from one game to the next. They don’t stay down long when they lose, and they seem to fight back quicker within games, too.
That award is as results dependent as it gets, but something to keep an eye on in the second half.
3. John Gibson made a big save on Gustav Nyquist late in Wednesday’s game to preserve the 2-1 win and cap what was an outstanding month for him.
After some real struggles early this season, Gibson was excellent with a .925 save percentage in December, including nine wins in 10 starts. That save percentage was eighth in the league among goalies who made at least five starts in the month.
Because of how rough the start was, his season total still sits at .893. But the Red Wings will care much more about where his game is at now (and going forward), and it’s hard to argue with the results of late.
“He’s been really good,” Mason Appleton said. “A lot of winning hockey lately, and when you play for a new team after being in a spot for a really long time, it’s different. And now he’s really, really found his groove here. He’s a hell of a goalie and a great guy, and he’s our backbone right now.”
4. Prashanth Iyer had a great article Wednesday, diving deep into Andrew Copp’s play in December, since he moved up to the second line. That trio (with Alex DeBrincat and one of Patrick Kane or John Leonard) has been clearly the Red Wings’ best line for a few weeks now, even with Kane out for a good chunk of the month. Some of the numbers Iyer pulled are even more dramatic than I’d have expected. It’s well worth a read.
It helps to be playing with premier offensive players, of course. DeBrincat and Kane provide lots of opportunities to pick up points, and Leonard was productive in his time up as well. But there’s more to it than that, as Copp is also a highly intelligent player. Whether it’s his vision and passing, or the way he’s gotten to hard areas of the ice to help create room for his linemates (and find some scoring chances in the process), it’s showing up right now. He’s playing crisp, consistent and, perhaps most importantly, confident hockey.
“I think Copper’s confidence is back to a level where it needs to be,” McLellan said Wednesday morning. “And why did that happen? I think he’s put himself in a situation where he’s using his legs more during the game, and he’s finding ways to be around the net more than he was maybe earlier in the season. And as that happens, and you find a way to score a goal every now and then, you start to feel good about yourself, and this is probably the best he’s felt all year.”
5. On the flip side, it was a down month at five-on-five from the line of Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Emmitt Finnie.
Detroit was outscored 10-4 at five-on-five with Larkin on the ice in December, according to Evolving Hockey — a big drop off from the 22-13 margin in the Red Wings’ favor with Larkin on the ice the rest of the season. Granted, the Red Wings were still above a 50 percent xG share with the top line on the ice in December, so some of the goal margin there is likely fluky. And there are always ebbs and flows to a season.
Regardless, you don’t want to see your top line held down like that for prolonged stretches at even strength. Raymond had just five five-on-five points this month, and Larkin had only two. Finnie had one. That’s mitigated by power-play production for all three, but scoring five-on-five is going to be key the later it gets into the season.
So, as encouraging as it is for the Red Wings to be able to win in other ways lately, they are going to need to get their top line going in the new year.
6. Detroit will also surely be looking for a bit more from two of its young centers in the second half. Marco Kasper is fighting through a big-time sophomore slump, and rookie Nate Danielson has been quiet of late as well.
Both players bring more to the table than points, as responsible defensive forwards and checkers, but the Red Wings will need some more production from the pair of young centers. It doesn’t have to be loud production, like Kasper’s second half last season (when he had 28 points in his final 41 games), but even just finding their way to some ugly goals around the net would go a long way for this group.
Of course, for two young players, avoiding the pressure to produce is probably part of the mental challenge to begin with.
7. Even with the quieter month at five-on-five, Larkin is on pace for 40 goals at the season’s midpoint, as is DeBrincat. That’s a big deal for a Red Wings organization that hasn’t had a 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa in 2009.
DeBrincat fell just short last season, with 39, and Larkin has hit 30-plus for the past four years in a row.
If you’re wondering the last time two Red Wings reached 40 in the same season, that would be 1994, when Sergei Fedorov and Ray Sheppard both topped 50 — though Brendan Shanahan and Henrik Zetterberg had 40 and 39, respectively, in 2005-06.
8. Since it’s now midseason, I figured it would be a good time to check in on my preseason bold predictions column to see how those were trending.
It was nice to get one in the win column early, with the Red Wings winning five of their first six to start the season. But there are a few more still alive, too.
With 43 points in 39 games, Raymond is just off the 90-point pace I predicted for him, tracking for 88 if he plays the maximum 80 games (after he missed two early this season). That means 90 is at least in play with a strong second half.
The Red Wings’ penalty kill entered the night at exactly 16th in the NHL, then went 3-for-3 against the Jets, so my pick for them to finish in the league’s top half is still very possible, too.
Some predictions hanging out in TBD-land: three more prospects debuting after opening night (so far, only Nate Danielson); a winning record in March; a new highest-paid Red Wing by next October; and my long-shot dart throw of Larkin scoring the Olympic golden goal.
9. A couple of those predictions look like whiffs already. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård scoring 20 goals isn’t happening at this point (unless you’ll let me count the AHL!). And considering Albert Johansson’s averaging under 16 minutes a night, it’s hard to see any world where he can finish the season averaging 20.
So, I’ll preemptively take the loss on both of those.
10. The big one I’m watching, though, as always, was the final prediction. I picked the Red Wings to finish with 92 points and miss the playoffs.
When the ball drops, they’ll be on pace for 102 and tied with Carolina atop the Eastern Conference.
Suffice it to say, they’ve surpassed my expectations over the first 41. Now it’s all about how well they can bring it home.