A stark new economic analysis reveals the Trump administration’s trade policies are extracting a heavy toll from Main Street, with small-business importers paying approximately $25,000 more per month in tariff costs since April 2025. The report, published Dec. 17 by the Center for American Progress (CAP), a left-wing think tank, details how a “chaotic approach” to trade and the elimination of key import exceptions have created a financial crisis for entrepreneurs during the critical holiday season.

According to the analysis by Michael Negron and Mimla Wardak, the administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement triggered a sharp increase in duties collected from American businesses. From April through September 2025, CAP estimated, the roughly 236,000 small-business importers in the U.S. paid an average of more than $151,000 in additional tariffs compared to the same period in 2024. (CAP cited the centrist Chamber of Commerce’s research on the small-business importer sector of the economy.)

“The Trump administration’s broad, costly, and frequently shifting policies threaten to undermine one of the strongest engines of the American economy,” Negron said in a statement to Fortune. “A season of opportunity for small businesses has turned into one of uncertainty.”

The burden is not limited to larger enterprises. The report found “mom-and-pop” businesses—those with fewer than 50 employees—paid, on average, over $86,000 more per business during this six-month window than they did the previous year. The outlook for the immediate future is equally grim: CAP projects that if current monthly costs persist, the typical small business will face a tariff bill exceeding $500,000 in 2026, potentially resulting in additional layoffs, bankruptcies, and delayed investments. For the holidays, CAP concludes the tariffs are a “costly lump of coal” in American small business’ collective, proverbial Christmas stocking.

Administrative red tape stifles growth

Beyond direct financial costs, small business owners are struggling with a sudden increase in bureaucratic red tape. The administration eliminated the de minimis exception, which previously allowed low-value shipments to enter the U.S. without duties or extensive paperwork. This policy change has forced businesses to prepay new tariff rates and complete complex customs forms for millions of shipments that were formerly exempt.

Jyoti Jaiswal, founder of OMSutra, a small business selling sustainable fashion and home goods, told CAP the changes have forced her to consolidate shipments and block more capital upfront. Jaiswal noted her company now spends 10 to 15 hours on tariff-related administrative work per shipment, up from eight to 10 hours previously, preventing her from passing costs on to consumers without losing competitiveness.