49ers offense sizzles while Seahawks' Sam Darnold sputters: Week 17 film review
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Ted Nguyen
Also, Malik Willis shows he has starting quarterback potential while filling in for the Packers.
Teams are fighting for playoff spots or to improve their seeding as the regular season unwinds. The intensity is getting cranked up and teams are trying to reach peak form as they enter the postseason.
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the teams peaking at the right time and their offense looks unstoppable. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been elite all season, but can Seattle survive its offense’s sharp regression?
The Green Bay Packers are locked into their playoff seed and hope to get quarterback Jordan Love back soon, but I still want to talk about his backup, Malik Willis, what he’s shown on film and where he could land next season.
49ers offense firing on all cylinders
The 49ers will secure the NFC’s top seed if they beat the Seahawks on Saturday. That would be a massive accomplishment considering they play in the same division as the Rams and Seahawks, who have been rolling over teams. If they pull it off, Kyle Shanahan deserves to be named NFL coach of the year. Coach-turning-around-a-downtrodden-team stories are cute, but Shanahan having this team playing as well as it is with all the injuries it has suffered this season is a monumental achievement that deserves recognition.
Quarterback Brock Purdy looks healthy again and is playing better than he was when the 49ers went to the Super Bowl. He’s executing the offense and hitting the wide-open receivers created by the scheme, but his playmaking ability is taking this offense to the next level.
Week 15 against the Titans is when Purdy started to look like himself and scramble again. In that game, he ran for 44 yards, and now he’s getting to where his short-area quickness looks completely back and he’s making pass rushers miss.
The 49ers running game has been inefficient for most of the season, but found its footing in Week 15 as well. From Weeks 1-14, their rushing success rate was 43.2 percent and the average yards per carry was 3.5. Since then, their rushing success has jumped to 58.3 percent and average yards per carry to 4.7. In those three games, they played the Titans and Bears, who have bad run defenses, but the Niners also rushed for 145 yards against the Colts, who rank third in yards per carry allowed.
Week 17, 14:28 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10
The 49ers are still a two-back team, but they aren’t lining up in a typical I-formation with fullback Kyle Juszczyk lining up behind Purdy. One of their most effective formations has been the flex with a tight end and Juszczyk lined up off the ball. When Juszczyk goes into motion, he can either keep going and lead block to the strong side, pull up and insert to the weak side or reverse field and lead on a toss to the weak-side perimeter. The 49ers have shown all this on film, so defenses must be ready for every possibility when he’s in motion.
On this play, Juszczyk continued to the strong side to lead block for a zone play going to the left, while tight end Luke Farrell shifted to the backside to block the end. With the motion, the Bears linebackers had to bump over to account for the extra gap created by Juszczyk’s motion.
However, the defense flowed too hard to the left, leaving a cutback lane for Christian McCaffrey on the backside underneath of Farrell’s block. McCaffrey scampered for 16 yards on the play.
Shanahan also applies his deft use of eye candy and misdirection to his passing concepts. With the 49ers down by three points with 2:26 remaining, Shanahan had his best shot play designed for the Bears saved for the situation.
2:26 remaining in the fourth quarter, second-and-10
The 49ers initially had receiver Jauan Jennings, tight end Jake Tonges, and Juszczyk lined up on the left, which meant the passing strength was to the left. Tonges motioned over to the right side, which gave Purdy a coverage indicator and switched the passing strength for the defense to the right, forcing them to adjust. No one followed Tonges across the formation, which indicated the Bears were in zone coverage.
The Bears had a Tampa-2 zone called with linebacker T.J. Edwards dropping to the “hole” in the middle of the defense. In this coverage, Edwards has to open to the passing strength, which was the right side with three eligible receivers.
Right before the snap, Juszczyk “fast” motioned outside, which forced the corner to bump outside and gave Jennings a free release. Jennings ran a seam, while Tonges ran an over-the-ball route.
Purdy ensured with his eyes that Edwards would jump Tonges. With the hole player turned to the right, Jennings was left wide open down the seam. Purdy hit him in stride and Jennings did the rest and got into the end zone.
Left tackle Trent Williams was knocked out of the game early and All-Pro tight end George Kittle couldn’t play because of an ankle injury he suffered in the last game. Remarkably, without two of the best players at their positions, the 49ers had their best offensive performance of the season. This game was indicative of what Shanahan and the 49ers have done all season. They haven’t just survived key injuries, they’ve thrived.
Darnold has turned back into a pumpkin
Since the Seahawks lost to the Rams in Week 11, defenses have only played base against Seattle’s heavy personnel on 7.4 percent of plays compared to 17.5 percent in the first 10 weeks. Their explosive play rate has also dropped, going from 16.7 percent from Weeks 1-10 to 12.3 percent from Weeks 11-18. The Seahawks’ inability to create mismatches when teams don’t match them with base has hurt their offense, and defenses don’t fear their rushing attack. They rank 20th in rushing success rate. Right guard Anthony Bradford has been terrible and first-round pick Grey Zabel has been up and down.
If the running game hasn’t improved by this point, it’s hard to see it getting fixed in the postseason. That’ll be problematic because quarterback Sam Darnold has regressed as well. From Weeks 1-10, his EPA per drop back was 0.25, which is MVP-level. Since then, it has dropped to -0.09, which ranks 25th in that time span. He’s also thrown eight interceptions and lost two fumbles since Week 11. Other than his remarkable comeback effort against the Rams, which involved a lot of schemed-up throws, Darnold has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league since Week 11.
12:12 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-10
On his interception against the Panthers, the score was 3-3 and the Seahawks were in the red zone. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had a shot play called with Jaxon Smith-Njigba running a double move. The Panthers initially showed press man, which would be an ideal look for this route.
However, after the snap, the Panthers dropped into a cover 3 zone. Corner Mike Jackson dropped deep and didn’t bite on the move. At this point, Darnold ideally should move on to his next read or find his check-down.
However, Darnold threw the ball anyway and Jackson intercepted the pass, robbing the Seahawks of getting points on the drive.
The Seahawks defense dominated the Panthers and forced two second-half turnovers, which helped put the game away. The defense is good enough to win in the postseason despite the major regression on offense. They don’t have to be the explosive offense that they were in the first half of the season, but Darnold can’t continue to turn the ball over and give offenses short fields. Ideally, Darnold can connect on big plays again, but right now, the focus should be on taking care of the ball, making smarter decisions and building on that.
Willis looks like a starting QB
Willis had all of the tools coming out of the 2022 draft. He had as much arm talent as any recent prospect, able to drill throws and throw with touch. He could run and was exceptional at breaking tackles at 225 pounds. The big knock on him was that he played in a very simplistic offense, even by college standards, and that it would take time for him to acclimate to an NFL system. The Titans drafted him and he played sparingly. The organization ultimately chose to develop Will Levis over Willis.
Going to the Packers and developing under Matt LaFleur as a backup was great for Willis. He’s been impressive and productive in the games that he’s played extensively. In Willis’ first start against the Titans last season, LaFleur had to drastically adjust the offense to protect Willis and built the game plan around his ability to run. However, in his Week 17 start against the Ravens, he primarily was a pocket passer, and he had his best game as a pro.
Malik Willis
2025 rank
EPA per dropback
0.41
2nd
Off target rate
5.10%
1st
Yards per pass attempt
11.1
1st
Rushing yards per game
44.2
1st
Willis has been remarkably efficient in the five games he’s started or played significant spans in the past two seasons. In the chart, the second column shows where his five-game sample from 2024-25 would rank this year. His EPA per drop back would just be 0.01 behind Patriots QB Drake Maye and he would lead the league in rushing yards per game over the Jets’ Justin Fields. He also would have the lowest off-target rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, over the 49ers’ Mac Jones. Of course, these numbers would not likely hold up over a much larger sample size, but they give an idea of Willis’ potential.
What stands out is his deep accuracy, ability to run and pocket presence. The last trait could be the most important. Willis looks poised and unfazed by pressure and he’s exceptional at manipulating the pocket, which is a rare trait.
13:20 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Packers had a four-verticals concept called into a two-deep look by the defense, which was advantageous for the defense.
Willis looked to Christian Watson down the seam first, but he was covered with a deep safety sitting on top of the vertical.
Willis stepped up into the pocket to draw the pass rush inside.
As he spun outside, one of the interior rushers did a good job of getting back outside, but Willis quickly reacted and stepped up into the pocket.
Willis was able to create an opening in the pocket and bought time for Watson to cross the field and get open.
Willis’ biggest weakness, and this has been true since his days at Liberty, is his inability to throw to the middle of the field.
There have been mobile quarterbacks who have succeeded and have been productive without frequently attacking the middle of the field, but this looks like a legitimate weakness that play callers will have to navigate around.
Willis should be in demand as a free agent with a weak quarterback class in this year’s draft. Here are my top three destinations for him:
1. Vikings: They might not be able to afford Willis unless he takes less money, but he’d play in a similar system, going from LaFleur’s to Kevin O’Connell’s. They are both derivatives of Sean McVay’s system and have great weapons on the outside to throw to. They drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round, and he’s shown some improvement this year, but is it enough to commit another season to him with a roster that is ready to win? McCarthy has also had trouble staying on the field.
2. Cardinals: They look set to move away from Kyler Murray and they have big weapons with Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. that excel on vertical routes where Willis likes to attack.
3. Jets: They already have an option offense installed, a talented offensive line and Garrett Wilson. The Jets could be in position to take a quarterback in the draft, but if they aren’t, it would make a lot of sense to go after Willis. He should be wary about inserting himself into one of the more dysfunctional franchises in the league, though.
Some analysts have mentioned the Dolphins, but they should be headed for a full rebuild and it seems like they are warming up to the idea of keeping coach Mike McDaniel. Willis would be a terrible fit in McDaniel’s offense, which primarily attacks the middle of the field. Mac Jones would be a far better fit for the Dolphins, but they would have to make a trade with the 49ers to get him.
We’ve seen fool’s gold with small sample sizes from backup quarterbacks before, but Willis was seen as a top quarterback in the 2022 draft class who just needed development, and it appears he’s gotten the time and coaching he needed. It will definitely be a gamble to bid for his services, but the potential is immense.
