The new year starts with U.S. jobs data, a rebalancing of commodity indexes and an OPEC+ meeting. Markets are gearing up for more IPOs and much of the enthusiasm that ‍fuelled market peaks in 2025 is seemingly intact.

But there are plenty of risks on the horizon, with a U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling and new Federal Reserve chair announcement imminent.

1. TAILWINDS AND RISKS

In 2025, almost every bet on global markets was a winner. And investors' year-ahead outlooks are broadly optimistic about 2026, despite caveats about AI bubbles and possible fresh turmoil ahead with the U.S. Supreme Court poised to rule on the legality of President ‌Donald Trump's sweeping emergency ‌tariffs and a new Fed chair announcement expected soon. Some say money managers may have fallen into the hot hand fallacy trap, where winning streaks make gamblers more optimistic instead of worried their luck will run out.

Others have decided it is most ‌rational to back hot-handed U.S. retail investors, who have bet on Wall Street dips and become a more dominant force as they keep doubling down. Investors' fear of missing out could extend December's positive trends, although markets driven by sentiment are vulnerable to small shocks. The potential for turbulence is rising.

2. PERUSING PAYROLLS

The new year brings the next instalment of key U.S. jobs data on January 9.

Concerns over a softening labour market paved the way for the Fed to cut rates by a total of 175 basis points in 2024 and 2025. Investors expect more easing in 2026, though that will depend in part on the health of the labour market as inflation remains above its target.

A Reuters poll forecasts that 55,000 jobs were created in December. That comes after 64,000 new jobs in November and the biggest drop in nearly five ‌years in October following government-related ‍spending cuts.

Latest minutes showed Fed policymakers agreed to cut rates in December only after a deeply nuanced debate about economic risks.

3. CRUDE CALL

Major ‍oil producers grouped in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, dubbed OPEC+, are likely to leave ‌oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026 unchanged at a Sunday meeting, sources say.

Such a decision would moderate a push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut and after oil prices fell more than 15% over the course of 2025.

But the gathering also takes place amid rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen - any disagreement between the two OPEC+ powers could hamper consensus on oil output.

The eight countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand.