AFC North Whiparound: Delving into the Steelers-Ravens division title game
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:The Athletic NFL Staff
Also, awards season, regrettable decisions this season and whether Myles Garrett will get the sack record vs. the Bengals.
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers tackle the pressing questions and biggest storylines around the division. This week, we discuss what to expect from the division championship on Sunday night and one final look back at what went wrong in 2025.
The division is on the line on Sunday. Let’s lead with a view of what matters most when the Ravens and Steelers take the field. What will be the most, perhaps underrated, factor that determines the game? Take quarterback play and the obvious health of stars out of it. What do you think tilts the game one direction or the other? And, of course, who ya got?
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): Will Derrick Harmon’s addition or DK Metcalf’s absence be more impactful on Sunday? Maybe those aren’t “underrated” storylines, but in a matchup like this one with two teams that know each other so well, those are the two biggest questions worth addressing.
The Ravens have surpassed 200 rushing yards in each of the last three meetings against the Steelers, including a 299-yard outburst in last year’s playoff game. Acknowledging they had what defensive coordinator Teryl Austin termed a “Baltimore problem,” the Steelers invested their first-round pick in Harmon. The Steelers are allowing 3.5 yards per carry when the rookie defensive tackle is on the field and 4.6 yards per carry when he’s been out. Harmon isn’t the whole story, but his presence should help bolster the run defense.
On the flip side, the Ravens’ defense dared Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to throw deep in Week 14, deploying man coverage on 35.3 percent of plays, their fourth-highest rate of the year. Against man coverage, Rodgers was 7-of-12 for 163 yds (a season-high vs. man) with a TD, an EPA per attempt of 0.58 and a passer rating of 130.6. Metcalf was the biggest beneficiary, catching two long passes for 80 yards. However, in Week 17 without Metcalf, Rodgers was 2-of-10 for negative-1 passing yard, -1.15 EPA/attempt and a passer rating of 39.6 against Cleveland’s man coverages, per TruMedia.
My head tells me the Steelers will lose. However, the fact that Vegas made the Steelers a home underdog and this has been such a classic Mike Tomlin season (including last week’s loss), I think Tomlin’s team somehow wins a weird, last-second thriller.
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): It’s always about turnovers when the Steelers and Ravens play, specifically whether the Ravens can avoid them. The Steelers’ wins over the Ravens seem to always include several instances of the Ravens giving the ball away.
From a less obvious standpoint, it’s going to be critical that the Ravens are productive offensively on first and second downs. People wonder why the Ravens haven’t run Derrick Henry 30-plus times every week, as they did in bludgeoning Green Bay last week. There’s no disputing that they have curiously gotten away from the run game in a few instances this year, but one of the reasons for that is that they haven’t been as productive on early downs. They rank 14th in EPA and success rate per play on first and second downs. They’ve gotten behind the sticks or been in too many second- and third-and-longs where you’re just not going to run in those situations. As for a prediction, Ravens fans will be happy to know that I’m picking Pittsburgh. I just haven’t had a feel of this Baltimore team all year, but the Ravens’ history in big games like this has left a ton of scar tissue.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): The lack of DK Metcalf feels important here. Can Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers find enough explosive plays without him? He caught seven passes for 148 yards in the last game and nobody else for Pittsburgh posted more than 49 yards. If they can manufacture two or three explosive plays from the rest of the cast, that should be enough to take advantage of the Ravens’ flaws. If they can’t, suddenly the Ravens can turn this into a Derrick Henry showcase and play the type of game they hope it will be. I’ve been on the Ravens all year, despite how many times they’ve made me look silly. I liked enough of what happened in Green Bay to say I’ll go down with the ship and pick them to win one more time.
Zac Jackson (Browns): The Steelers abandoned the run last week too often when it was clear that they had no shot to succeed with the downfield pass game. Well, Metcalf is still suspended and Darnell Washington is out, so the challenge will be either winning with the run or more successfully adapting to their circumstances. Twenty points should win the game, and I think both teams know that. I just don’t know if Pittsburgh can get enough of its pass game to get there. I’ll take the Ravens, 19-14.
The season ends Sunday for three of the four teams; thus, award season starts. Let’s take the major awards off the table. Beyond MVP, pick any award (or make one up) that you feel like one player, coach or executive associated with the team deserves and explain.
DeFabo: Cameron Heyward leads NFL defensive tackles with 747 defensive snaps and 71 tackles. Among players at his position, he’s also fifth in pressures (49) and tied for fourth in tackles for loss (nine). Not bad for a 36-year-old. The ageless veteran has become the NFL’s ironman. Considering his dad Craig’s nickname, we’ll give him the Ironhead Award. The way Heyward has played at a high level late into his career has become a defining part of his legacy and may help him one day earn a Hall of Fame nod.
Zrebiec: I can’t see any Ravens being candidates for major awards this season, so I’ll have to go the make-one-up route. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton won’t win Defensive Player of the Year, but if the league gave out an award for the NFL’s most versatile defensive player, he’d win it hands down. Hamilton has been Baltimore’s best player and team MVP this season. He’s lined up just about everywhere, from deep safety to dime linebacker to nickel cornerback to edge rusher. He helped settle down the Ravens pass defense, played closer to the line of scrimmage to solidify the run defense and aided the pass rush with his blitzing ability. This isn’t one of the Ravens’ better defenses historically, but without Hamilton, who has played through several injuries, Baltimore wouldn’t stand a chance.
Dehner Jr.: Can we give Comeback Player of the Year to somebody who performed the comeback midseason? Should we then just name the award after Joe Burrow? The fact that he came back from the toe injury two months ahead of schedule, supplied hope and offensive fireworks and played at as high a level as the best points in his career in the process doesn’t get enough credit for the degree of difficulty. The pick six in Buffalo and the dud against the Ravens clouds the picture, but Burrow and the Bengals offense have largely looked capable of running up the score on anyone since his return. Too many parallels to last season exist here, but that doesn’t take away from Burrow pulling himself off the mat and finishing strong in what felt like a lost season back in Week 2.
Jackson: I’ve been waiting 18 weeks to just make up an award. Thank you. I accept the honor of most outstanding Whiparound contributor, but I couldn’t do it without you, the loyal reader. Oh, we’re talking on the field? I’m going to go with the coordinator of the year and award it to Jim Schwartz of the overworked Cleveland defense. Schwartz’s unit has been on the field for five months and keeps going. It keeps producing with little help from an impotent offense. I don’t know what’s next for Schwartz or anyone atop the Browns’ organization, but he’s been Cleveland’s best hire in years.
What is the one game or decision the team you cover would like back this season? And maybe Paul and Zac should consider compiling a top-10 list.
DeFabo: The Steelers didn’t add an established WR2 this offseason because they were hoping Calvin Austin III or Roman Wilson would step up to provide depth behind DK Metcalf. Austin has endured three different injuries this year — an oblique in training camp, a shoulder in Week 4 and a hamstring most recently. Meanwhile, Wilson was inactive for three consecutive games, beginning in Week 14 in Baltimore. Pittsburgh has tried to re-make its receiver room on the fly, adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen. It’s probably too little, too late. A team that never really answered its question at WR2 is now trying to overcome the loss of WR1.
Zrebiec: From a team perspective, blowing a 15-point lead in the final four minutes in Buffalo in Week 1 took a tremendous toll on the Ravens. Players may deny it, but the disappointment certainly seemed to linger and contribute to the 1-5 hole that they’ve struggled all year to completely dig out from. From an organizational perspective, not doing more in the offseason to solidify the trenches has to be regrettable for GM Eric DeCosta and company. The Ravens have had to overcome poor offensive guard play and an inconsistent pass rush all year. Those very well could be fatal flaws for this team.
Dehner Jr.: The game would be easy, blowing a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead against the winless New York Jets (!) and Justin Fields (!!) in Week 8 is one of the all-time season-killing meltdowns. The Bengals would have recovered from the Burrow injury and ridden Flacco fever back to .500 — suddenly, the momentum for the entire season feels different. Perhaps they’d have ended up in the same spot, but that loss is the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man of haunting ghosts. As for a decision, it’s hard not to look back at Zac Taylor’s call to bench Logan Wilson in favor of Barrett Carter in Week 6, committing himself to playing two rookie linebackers for the duration of the season. The fallout on the field was catastrophic. Even though the defense has stabilized lately, that experiment doomed the decisive middle months of the season.
Jackson: There’s the Joe Flacco trade, there’s the botching of the Minnesota game two days before the Flacco trade, there was the Cincinnati game in Week 1, there was the whole construction of the offense … let me stop and think. The Browns clearly never had a sound plan at quarterback. And I know there’s no ideal world for a team that’s been outscored by around 300 points since the Deshaun Watson trade that will continue to haunt the franchise, but pulling the plug too quickly on Flacco to go to a rookie who everyone knew had little to no chance just took things from bad to worse. Going back many months, the Browns needed a clearer quarterback plan, better quarterback evaluation and more patience to see it through. There was never a full embrace of how poorly this offense was constructed, and the strong play of the defense highlighted that even more. To make a long answer longer, the Browns either should have been riding a veteran or riding one rookie and never should have drafted two rookies or tried to develop them in the order they tried. Absolute malpractice.
Myles Garrett needs a half-sack on Sunday to tie the single-season record of 22.5 held by T.J. Watt and Michael Strahan. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
Browns at Bengals, quick answers to three questions: how much should Burrow play, will Myles Garrett get the sack record and who wins?
DeFabo: Burrow should play as much as he wants, Garrett will break the record and the Bengals will win.
Zrebiec: I’m not close enough to the Bengals’ situation to know what these last two wins have done for Burrow’s psyche, but I would have leaned toward sitting him the rest of the way after the Ravens’ shutout win in Week 15 eliminated the Bengals from the playoffs. So, yeah, I’d keep him on the sideline Sunday in a warm and comfy sweatsuit. I do think Garrett will get the sack record. Burrow, assuming he plays, is too competitive to consume himself with denying Garrett. He’ll hold onto the ball long enough to give Garrett some chances. The Bengals will win Sunday. The only question is how far out of the top-10 they’ll fall in the first round of April’s draft.
Dehner Jr.: I would not play Burrow. He showed all he needed to show and checked all the boxes desired over the last five weeks. He found his fun, reestablished the potential dominance of the offense, regained health and jump-started momentum for 2026. Now, enjoy Sunday in a hat. I fully understand the organizational tenet of trying to win every game, but the concept of Burrow returning to rehab and setting back an offseason that is fairly simply set up at this point, trying to beat the Browns in a meaningless game, is a tough pill to swallow. Ultimately, it probably won’t matter. And if they post a big number on a great Browns defense, that would be a nice bow on the final month, but everyone at Paycor Stadium will be holding their collective breath as long as he’s out there. Since he is playing and the Browns have been rough away from home this year, the Bengals win by double digits.
Jackson: He should play until the fourth quarter, at which point Flacco should enter and be asked to do nothing but throw 65-yard bombs. Yes, Garrett will get the sack record. And if it comes with the Browns down 17, he’ll still celebrate wildly. Bengals win, something like 24-10. The Browns can’t score unless Burrow gifts them points.
