Attacking Putin's home would be 'stupid' move by Ukraine, say experts
SOURCE:ABC Australia|BY:Brianna Morris-Grant and Ahmed Yussuf
A defence analyst tells the ABC an attack on the Russian President's state residence would be "technically" possible but would not make sense strategically for Ukraine.
A Ukrainian drone strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin's home would be "technically" possible but strategically "stupid", experts have told the ABC.
Moscow alleged on Monday, local time, that Kyiv launched an attack on Mr Putin's state residence in Russia's Novgorod region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has denied Moscow's allegations, dismissing them as "another round of lies from the Russian Federation".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Kyiv launched the attack using 91 long-range drones.
As a result, Mr Lavrov said Russia would be reviewing its position on peace.
But experts who spoke to the ABC said the alleged attack "made no sense".
The accusation comes just days after what were described as progressive talks between the US and Ukraine on Sunday, local time.
"It is clear … for [Russia] it is a failure, because they do not want to end this war," Mr Zelenskyy told media after the Kremlin's claim.
"I am sure [Russia is] simply preparing the ground for strikes, probably on the capital, probably on government buildings."
Putin's Valdai residence 'heavily protected'
The Dolgiye Borody residence — also called "Valdai" and "Uzhin" — is Putin's home on the shores of Lake Valdai in the Novgorod Oblast, which was allegedly targeted.
The 40-hectare property sits on a government vacation resort inside Valdai National Park.
On three sides, it is surrounded by water. On the fourth, a fence keeps access heavily restricted.
Moscow appeared to have upped security around the residence as of May 2024, according to an independent think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Satellite imagery collected on May 6 indicates that Russian forces have concentrated at least seven Pantsir-S1 medium-range air defence systems around [the Valdai property]," the ISW said in their 2024 report.
Pantsir-S1 systems are designed to combat short-range cruise missiles and drones.
Other "unidentified" military technologies have also been seen on the property via satellite.
They noted such coverage was "meaningless at scale" because it allowed Ukrainian drones to "bypass Russian air defence coverage and strike from uncovered directions".
It was these systems that Mr Lavrov claimed destroyed the missiles allegedly fired by Ukraine at the residence.
He did not state whether Mr Putin was in Novgorod at the time.
Peter Dickinson is the editor of the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert and the publisher of Business Ukraine and Lviv Today magazines.
"There was no suggestion that there was any major damage, but the idea was that Ukraine had … essentially tried to kill Putin," he told ABC News Radio.
"This is the narrative. There is no evidence at all for this. They've provided none.
"But broadly speaking it doesn't make any sense [because] he is known to concentrate air defences around his residences.
"So they are probably the most heavily protected spaces in Russia.
"You're not going to get many drones through.
"And even if you did, these are big, sprawling estates, so the chances of hitting one person there, and knowing where he is, are almost zero."
Attacking Putin's would-be home 'strategically and politically stupid'
The idea of Ukraine targeting Mr Putin's properties, according to defence analyst Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, was "technically" possible.
"They've got the means to do so," Dr Davis said.
"But it would be strategically and politically stupid to do so because in doing so they would scupper any good will they've built up with the Trump administration.
"[Attacking his home] would play into Putin's hands.
"Putin would then be able to use that attack to justify escalation towards Ukraine in terms of attacking government buildings.
"And indeed that's exactly Putin is now suggesting will happen."
Mr Putin informed US President Donald Trump of the alleged attack in a call on Monday local time, according to Russian state media.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.l (Reuters: Kremlin.ru)
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed Mr Trump was "shocked" and "outraged" by the news.
Dr Davis suggested going public with the accusations was likely "Russia trying to sabotage the peace process".
"When you look at what Russia's response has been to the peace process, it's been to continue attacks on Ukraine," he said.
"As the negotiations were occurring at Mar-a-Lago between Zelenskyy and Trump, Russia was attacking Kyiv over a 10-hour period with missile and drone attacks.
"So it does indicate to everyone that Putin is not interested in peace."
The sprawling and secretive properties of Vladimir Putin
Putin's other residence, the suburban property of Novo-Ogaryovo west of Moscow, was allegedly also targeted by drones in May.
According to the ISW, independent Russian outlets claimed Ukrainian drone strikes had "predominantly targeted areas near [Putin's Novo-Ogaryovo residence] and other elite neighbourhoods" in Moscow.
Satellite images of the secluded property in 2021 showed a private helicopter landing pad, greenhouse, and church.
A 6-metre-high wall runs the perimeter of Mr Putin's residence.
The property became the source of some conspiracy in November, when a report by independent outlet RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty's Russian investigation team suggested Mr Putin was hiding his location.
Their investigation claimed three "nearly identical" offices had been built — one in Novo-Ogaryovo, one in Valdai, and one in Sochi, on the Black Sea coast.
The Novo-Ogaryovo state residence is used as a frequent background for meetings and public statements. (Sputnik: Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters)
Slight differences in the placement of the door handles, the panelling on the walls and the colour of the desks pointed to Mr Putin not being at his Novo-Ogaryovo home, despite claiming to be.
The Sochi property was allegedly Bocharov Ruchei, the presidential summer residence.
Russian independent investigative outlet Proekt reported that property's main building was demolished in early 2024.
Fears of a drone attack, they alleged, had largely kept Mr Putin away from the property since March of last year.
Trump 'very angry' about alleged attack
Asked about the alleged attack, Mr Trump told media it was "not good".
"I was very angry about it," he said, adding he would "find out" whether there was any evidence to support the attack.
In Europe, Dr Davis said, most believed the attack was a "false flag" by Russia.
"I think virtually everyone in Europe is on Ukraine's side in this regard," he said.
"They do not accept Putin's claim that these attacks actually happened."
Meanwhile, Russian strikes on Ukraine have been steadily increasing in the last several months.
Mr Dickinson, who spoke to the ABC from Kyiv, said attacks were "almost nightly".
"[Big attacks] usually involve hundreds of drones, perhaps as many as 500 drones," he said.
"And it's worth underlining here, we're not talking about little handheld gadgets.
"We're talking about massive, three or four-metre wide, jet-propelled … flying bombs, essentially. Flying torpedoes.
"If you live in a high-rise building, then you've really got to think: 'Do I go down to the basement [or the] metro station for the night or not?'
"It's extremely dangerous. It's scary and it's very, very disruptive."