In brief

• Bitcoin is bouncing in the new year, giving hope to crypto bulls.
• BTC is now trading above its average price over the last 200 days, a trend not seen since October.
• Bitcoin could now be poised to exit the dreaded "death cross" formation, a bearish pattern that formed in November.

The new year has started off with a bang—and one that initially had nothing to do with crypto. When U.S. Delta Force operators dragged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of his fortified compound in Caracas on January 3, financial markets erupted into chaos. Gold surged above $4,400 per ounce, the S&P 500 rallied on tech momentum, and Bitcoin—after spending weeks trapped in a suffocating range—finally broke free.

Today's price action shows BTC trading at $93,958, up 2.69% on the day. But it's not the percentage gain that matters here. It's where that price sits: above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since October. If the trend persists, Bitcoin could break free from the “death cross” formation it painted on charts back in November.

That's a big deal for traders who've been watching Bitcoin struggle through what was supposed to be a triumphant year under a crypto-friendly Donald Trump administration.

Despite a pretty bullish first semester last year, Bitcoin ended up with a negative 6% performance in 2025. After a 125% rally in 2024 that sent BTC screaming past $100K, the market sold the news once Trump actually took office. All those policy changes and regulatory shifts were already priced in by the end of 2024, and 2025 ended up being the usual "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario that left crypto investors nursing losses while gold and silver posted their best years since 1979.

Traditional safe havens have been crushing it while Bitcoin—the supposed "digital gold"—has struggled to hold $90K. The geopolitical backdrop has provided markets with a mixed bag. With Maduro now detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, oil markets are in FUD mode, and investors are piling into anything that looks like a hedge against chaos.

But here's the thing about chaos: it cuts both ways. The same geopolitical uncertainty that's driving institutional money into gold is also reminding crypto natives why Bitcoin was invented in the first place. When governments can capture sitting heads of state in midnight raids and declare they'll "run" entire countries, suddenly the idea of an asset that governments can’t easily seize or control starts looking pretty attractive again.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: The squeeze finally breaks

Bitcoin had been coiling tighter and tighter for weeks, trading in a narrow band between $85,000 and $90,000. Today, it gave in to the upside, starting the week at $91,498 and spiking to its current price of $93,925 with no upside wicks. Today’s candlestick is strong, all body no wicks, decisively breaking its most important resistance.