College Football Playoff oddly specific predictions: Will Miami upset Ohio State?
Can Ole Miss win in a rematch with Georgia? Why Indiana's run game will be the difference and more oddly specific Playoff predictions.
As we near the start of the New Year, it appears college football’s head coaching carousel has closed its doors for business.
Kyle Whittingham filled the opening at Michigan this week, and Marcus Freeman looks like he’s passing on the NFL this cycle to stay at Notre Dame. That means we’ve had 32 head coaching changes, including 17 at Power 4 programs.
Which one will turn out to be the best hire? Probably Lane Kiffin at LSU because it won’t be long before the Tigers are in the College Football Playoff and well-positioned to win a national title.
But don’t sleep on Whittingham at Michigan. He’s got Bryce Underwood, a healthy NIL budget, and he’s proven he can win at Utah playing the kind of football Wolverines fans love. The game is still won at the line of scrimmage, and Whittingham has a stronger record doing that than Kiffin.
Which teams in the current playoff field are strongest on the offensive and defensive lines?
Miami, Oregon, Texas Tech and Ohio State rank first, third, seventh and 10th in lowest pressure rate per dropback with the Buckeyes and Hurricanes both in the top-10 in fewest sacks per dropback allowed.
Defensively, Indiana, Miami, Ohio State and Texas Tech rank third, seventh, ninth and 10th in pressure rate with the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Hurricanes ranked in the top 10 in sack rate.
Oregon, meanwhile, is the only Playoff team ranked in the top-30 in rushing, coming in second, averaging 5.9 per carry. Texas Tech, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Indiana all allow fewer than three yards per rush and rank in the top-10 in rush defense.
Will any of this mean anything when our next national champion is crowned in Miami in three weeks? I think so. But what do I know?
I went 4-0 picking straight-up winners to open the Playoff and improved to 84-57 on the season. All that probably means I’m due for a setback in this week’s quarterfinal round.
College Football Playoff
No. 5 Oregon (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Dan Lanning’s team gave up 28 points in the second half to James Madison after leading 34-6 at halftime in its 51-34 opening round victory over the Dukes at home. The big question heading into this Orange Bowl matchup is whether the Red Raiders have enough offense to beat the Ducks. The answer: Yes.
Texas Tech averaged better than 30 points per game against the FBS-winning teams it faced and 32.3 points per game in its three wins over ranked opponents. The better question here might be, will Oregon’s defense show up? The Ducks allowed 30 points to Indiana, 27 to USC and had arguably their best day holding Washington to 14 points. This will be Oregon’s fifth game against a top-20 scoring offense.
Texas Tech? The Red Raiders have only faced one top-40 scoring offense all season: Utah. Shiel Wood’s unit limited the Utes to 101 rushing yards and 263 yards of total offense in a 34-10 win on the road. Dante Moore and the Ducks, however, are a different animal. Utah and BYU were also the only top-40 scoring defenses the Red Raiders faced. Oregon’s defense is stingier than both of those.