Data reveals surprising areas where baby populations are falling fastest in the US amid terrifying birth rate slump
The baby boom helped shape modern American housing after World War II with the birth of roughly 79 million babies nationwide. Today, the US fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 children per woman in 2024.
Baby populations have hit an all-time low in the United States - and surprisingly, family-friendly Utah is leading the decline, new data reveals.
The baby boom helped shape modern American housing after World War II, fueling rapid suburban expansion, the rise of single-family homes and the birth of roughly 79 million babies nationwide.
Fast forward to today, and the US fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 children per woman in 2024, according to a Realtor.com analysis.
The gap is striking: the US fertility rate of 1.6 is well below the replacement rate of roughly two - the number of children each woman needs to have to sustain the population - and below the 2.1 average in other developed countries.
Over the past decade, the share of Americans under five has plunged, signaling that adults now outnumber children in nearly every state.
A recent analysis of the US Census American Community Survey, comparing 2010 to 2024 data across nearly every metro, found that the steepest declines in the under-five population are clustered in the West.
Five of the largest falls are unexpectedly in Utah, despite the state’s reputation for a family-friendly culture, according Realtor.com's findings.
The accelerated wave of decline has also reached smaller cities in both Colorado and Nevada.
Baby populations have hit an all-time low in the United States, and surprisingly, family-friendly Utah is leading the decline, according to a new data analysis from Realtor.com
The US fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 children per woman in 2024 - a stark difference from the 79 million babies born nationwide during the baby boom
Five of the largest falls are in Utah: Logan, Ogden, Provo and St. George saw the biggest drops in their under-five populations, falling 3.2 percent
In the midst of a countrywide drop, a few cities stand out for bucking the trend - most notably Kokomo, Indiana, where the under-five share rose from 5.4 percent to 6.4 percent.
It’s important to note, however, that this data doesn’t measure the number of babies born or living in a city - instead, it shows the share of children under five relative to the total population.
There are usually two reasons for this phenomenon: either fewer young children, or faster growth among other age groups.
In many Western metros, including Utah’s cities, an influx of working-age adults and retirees has grown the population, which in turn lowers the share of children under five.
Logan, Ogden, Provo and St. George saw the biggest drops in their under-five populations, falling 3.2 percent, with Salt Lake City close behind at 3.1 percent.