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Every holiday season, mailboxes fill up with family letters from beloved aunts who tell us about the cousins’ developments, the vacations and pets, goals for the new year—all coated with as much sugar as their cookie trays.

On Wednesday evening, the world was treated to President Donald Trump’s Christmas letter, delivered in a disjointed rant from the White House. It was a self-graded check-in, coming nearly one year into office as the public is increasingly skeptical about what they signed up for when they gave Trump the keys to the White House for a second time. And unlike his position when the year started, Trump now seems to have lost control over his Republican Party, as more lawmakers are starting to realize the prices they might pay for their continued defense of Trump on health care costs, political retribution, economic recovery, even files linked to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

It was, as departing Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene observed on Tuesday, a sign that “the dam is breaking.” Even so, it sure felt like Trump was taking a self-congratulatory victory lap even as those watching were wondering when he might finally get out of his own way.

Trump’s message, delivered in just under 20 minutes from the White House’s Diplomatic Reception Room, would have fit in naturally at a campaign-style rally. But those events are not always carried live by the major networks and treated as primetime must-watch events. So Americans and those around the globe watched as Trump unleashed his favorite set of grievances about Democrats, migration, border policies, transgender rights, wokeness, self-dealing, the environment, the economy—basically every issue or piece of culture war fodder that helped Trump win last year but has proven tougher to address than he promised.

“Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess and I’m fixing it,” Trump said in what often seemed to be a naked plea for his base to stick with him. If it were a late-night selfie, friends might have criticized it as too thirsty. 

Sensing angst over how unaffordable day-to-day life is for many Americans, Trump tried to blame Democrats, who for the last 11 months have controlled exactly zero levers of power in Washington. “This happened during a Democrat administration. And it’s when we first began hearing the word ‘affordability,’” Trump said. “Over the past 11 months, we have brought more positive change to Washington than any administration in American history. There has never been anything like it.”

He pointed to tariffs, which, left unspoken, have sparked a trade war that has helped make the holidays 26% more expensive for millions of Americans. He also touted a no-mercy policy at the border that has cut crossings to the lowest levels in decades, and anti-immigrant policies that have made immigration raids a common occurrence in major cities. For good measure, Trump promised active-duty soldiers a $1,776 bonus—in the mail already, he said—in honor of the United States’ 250th anniversary next year. 

Despite Trump’s puffed-up presentation of unchecked success, his polling is some of the worst seen by any President at this point in his term. The NPR/ PBS/ Marist poll taken last week found 57% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, once one of his assets. Even among Republicans, 30% believe the country is already in a recession.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose last month to the highest level since September 2021, when Biden was guiding the economy out of the pandemic economy. And a monthly check-in on the inflation rate—the first since a record-long government shutdown—is due on Thursday.

Also absent from Trump’s speech was the fact that health care subsidies set to expire in just days. Hours earlier, House Republicans once again broke with Leadership’s wishes, deploying a procedural maneuver that would demand a vote on extending those subsidies, despite Trump’s opposition. (The vote, however, will not come until after the subsidies expire, so it could still mean doubling of premiums for many come Jan. 1. And the Senate has already rejected a version of this same gambit.)

The very fact that Trump chose to deliver this speech shows he understands the majority of Americans are unconvinced that his presidency is a success. And what unfolded Wednesday night was not what will set this right for him. Trump feeds on positive feedback and even some of his longtime apologists are starting to have enough. In the most glaring example of late, his decision to dunk on a murdered Hollywood legend and his wife drew near-unanimous revulsion. At some point, people see what’s in front of them and ignore what is being preached at them.

It’s like the family letter that deploys mountains of euphemisms to cloak disappointment. Just because it’s on good stationery does not mean the positive message is going to be believed—be it family legend or the national agenda. 

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