While it is far from the New England way historically be content with simply a playoff appearance, this year might be different. Don't tell that to Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye or anyone within the organization but many New England fans are thrilled to be back in the postseason, especially having laid a foundation for future success.
Is this season a success already for the Patriots or does this team need a playoff win to validate its turnaround?
Even at age 32, returning from a torn ACL, Stefon Diggs’ arrival in New England paid immediate dividends for Drake Maye and the Patriots, providing consistency at wideout that was critical throughout the season.
He finished the season catching 85 passes for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns, logging five games with at least 100-plus receiving yards. Diggs’ most prolific game of the season came against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5, catching 10-of-12 targets for 146 yards.
While he has not been targeted as heavily as he has been in previous years, keep an eye on Diggs tonight in critical moments.
It has been a while!
Los Angeles needs more from Ladd
After an impressive rookie season, Ladd McConkey came back down to earth in 2025 despite getting a similar number of targets.
Last year as a rookie, he caught 82-of-112 targets for 1,149 yards with seven touchdowns. This season, he caught just 66-of-106 targets, totaling 789 yards and six touchdowns. McConkey appeared in 16 games in both seasons.
While his production is certainly related to the Chargers’ offensive line struggles, Los Angeles will need McConkey to step up tonight in New England.
Patriots have to be efficient
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Five words from Drake Maye this week sum up how the Patriots are going to need to play if they’re going to beat the Los Angeles Chargers and win their first playoff game since Super Bowl LII over the Rams.
“Don’t get bored being efficient,” the quarterback said.
That’s because in this fascinating matchup between a great Patriots offense and a great Chargers defense, no team is better at taking away what the Pats do best than the Chargers. The Chargers have the best expected points added per play on throws beyond 10 air yards.
Essentially, the Chargers take away the deep passes exceptionally well and dare you to beat them with long drives, hoping their opponents will make a mistake along the way.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have built an offense that thrives on the deep ball. No team has a better EPA per play on passes beyond 10 air yards than the Pats.
So it’s another example in this matchup of a strength against a strength. But if the Chargers effectively take away the deep ball, the Patriots will have to be OK slowly moving down the field.
Analyzing New England’s backfield
While the usage splits between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have been a talking point all season, both running backs have earned their roles in New England’s backfield.
Stevenson overcame issues with fumbles early in the season to put together a productive season, rushing for 603 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games, adding 32 catches for 345 yards and two scores through the air.
Henderson, the dynamic rookie, likely would have eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing if it weren’t for injuries late in the season, instead totaling 911 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He also caught 35 passes for 221 yards.
In addition to Drake Maye, Los Angeles will need to slow down this duo tonight.
Will Chargers lean on Hampton?
Omarion Hampton’s rookie season was mostly defined by a fractured ankle that kept him out of the lineup for more than two months, halting what could have been a promising campaign.
Only appearing in nine games, the 22-year-old still managed to rush for 545 yards and four touchdowns, tacking on 32 receptions for 192 yards.
On the road tonight, I would expect Hampton to be a significant part of the Chargers’ game plan, especially considering the team’s struggles to protect Justin Herbert on his dropbacks.
Maye has been marvelous
You probably have heard it a bunch, especially this week, so I am not saying anything new by underscoring that Drake Maye has put together a special, MVP-worthy season that helped propel the Patriots to an AFC East crown and their first playoff appearance since 2021.
The 23-year-old finished the regular season fourth in the league in passing yards (4,394), third in touchdowns thrown (31) and threw only eight interceptions. He also rushed for 450 yards and four scores. His decision-making, command of New England’s offense and consistency have been remarkable for a young quarterback, hence the MVP buzz.
He will be tested tonight in his first postseason start against Jesse Minter’s defense.
Chargers need to help O-line
If the Chargers' offense can successfully establish the run early in the game, it will alleviate some pressure on the offensive line. The line is in a healthy spot, relatively speaking. They are without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, who both suffered season-ending injuries. But the Chargers’ primary backups — left tackle Jamaree Salyer and right tackle Trey Pipkins — are healthy for this game.
The important matchup will come on the interior against defensive tackle Milton Williams, the Patriots’ best pass rusher. Left guard Zion Johnson, center Bradley Bozeman and right guard Mekhi Becton will have to limit Williams’ impact on the game as a rusher. If that happens, quarterback Justin Herbert should have time to attack downfield.
The Patriots are a man-heavy defense. Their cornerbacks should match up well against the Chargers receivers — Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Tre’ Harris. The advantage matchup in man looks will be rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden against the Patriots safeties and linebackers. I am anticipating at least one explosive reception from Gadsden against New England’s man looks.
Running games will be key
Despite this game featuring two star quarterbacks, I think the rushing attacks on both sides will be big factors in the game. The Patriots have used six offensive linemen on 62 snaps since Week 13, the fifth-most in that span, according to TruMedia. Last week against the Dolphins, the Patriots rushed for 202 yards on 26 designed rushes, and they have improved in that phase over the second half of the season.
Since Week 10, New England ranks fourth in expected points added per designed rush, according to TruMedia. Chargers coordinator Jesse Minter prefers to play in lighter boxes so he can devote more resources to the back end and his two-high-safety shells. If the Patriots can come out and run the ball successfully early, it could force Minter to change those structures, move additional players into the box and shrink his coverage menu. On the flip side, the Patriots' defense is missing its best interior run defender in Khyiris Tonga.
The Chargers should have an advantage up front in the run game, and I am expecting offensive coordinator Greg Roman to lean into the rushing attack early. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton said Friday that he plans to play in this game after missing Week 18 with an ankle injury. Whichever defense defends the run better will have an upper hand.
Herbert propels Chargers to playoffs
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While Justin Herbert did not end the season with MVP-caliber numbers, the value he provided to the Los Angeles Chargers this season cannot be overlooked. Despite numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, including both offensive tackles, Herbert was able to will the Chargers to the postseason with a 12-5 record, taking countless hits along the way. He even continued to play through a broken hand, refusing to let his team down despite the clear pain he was in.
Herbert finished the season throwing for 3,727 yards (9th in NFL) with 26 touchdowns (T-7th in NFL) and 13 interceptions. He also rushed for a career-high 498 yards and two scores.
Keys for Chargers' defense
From a pass defense standpoint, the Chargers must execute in two key phases. They have to protect the middle of the field, where Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been outrageously productive this season. According to TruMedia, Maye averages 0.48 EPA per dropback on passing attempts between the numbers, by far the highest mark among passer-rating-qualified quarterbacks.
His favorite target in that area of the field is receiver Stefon Diggs. When the Chargers drop into zone looks, their linebackers — Daiyan Henley, Denzel Perryman and Troy Dye — will have to get consistent depth to try and close the windows between those backers and the deep-field safeties. If they can force Maye to hit his check-down consistently, they can rally to the ball, and that is a winning script for the Chargers.
Secondly, the Chargers must limit Maye as a scrambler. The Chargers, at times this season, have been leaky when defending mobile quarterbacks. They have allowed 293 scramble yards this season, according to TruMedia, 11th-most in the league. When the Chargers are in man coverage, they will be using Henley as a spy on Maye. How Henley fares against Maye in these open-field situations will be key. Maye is a big, tough, physical runner who does not go down easily.
Prediction: Mike Vrabel wins COTY
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He took a listless team that had deteriorated on Bill Belichick’s watch and continued its spiral in one season under Jerod Mayo, and in one season’s time, Vrabel has elevated the quarterback, gotten the defense right and has quickly restored the Patriots to one of the leading teams in the league. The Patriots boast the third-best offense, a top-10 defense and an impactful special teams unit and now appear to have as legitimate a shot at contending for a Super Bowl as anyone.
The competition was thick this year. The 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan easily could have taken this honor home after keeping his team afloat despite a swarm of injuries that would have wrecked any other organization. Ben Johnson took the Chicago Bears’ job last winter and now has Caleb Williams playing like a franchise quarterback as Chicago won its first division title in seven seasons. Coen took a 4-13 Jaguars team and pulled off a turnaround that saw them post a 13-4 record and win the AFC South after closing the season on an eight-game winning streak, winning those games by an average of 19.1 points per game.
Prediction: Drake Maye wins MVP
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Back in training camp we were wondering if Matthew Stafford’s back would allow him to make it through the first month of the season. Now, here the 37-year-old stands, the NFL’s leader in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) while directing the top-rated Los Angeles Rams offense and a team that ranks among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Any other year, Stafford would be a slam dunk for MVP. And yet, there is another.
Drake Maye took a massive leap forward in Year 2 and has served as the catalyst for the Patriots’ surprising success. Passing for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, Maye registered some big-time performances down the stretch to help New England earn the AFC’s No. 2 seed. He’s also used his legs to buy time and escape pressure behind a shaky offensive line and has run for 450 yards and four touchdowns.
Josh Allen also has delivered another MVP-worthy season while leading a Buffalo Bills team that offers probably the weakest supporting cast he has had in years. But Maye’s season has been pretty special.
With the Bills winning, we now know the Patriots would play the winner of Texans-Steelers if they win, likely next Sunday.
Why New England will win Super Bowl; why it won’t
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Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl
Because Drake Maye is incredible, and when you pair that with good coaching, you get a team that can beat anyone. Maye is one of two candidates for the MVP, and it's easy to see why. He finished first in EPA/dropback, second in dropback success rate, and the Patriots offense was fourth in series conversion rate (the percentage of times a team turns a first down into another first down or touchdown). That's an elite offense, and yes, they played a cupcake schedule — only three games against playoff teams, including the Steelers — but nobody has really slowed them down. As for the coaching aspect, we saw Mike Vrabel win a ton of games in Tennessee with lesser quarterback talent than Maye. Vrabel knows how to coach, and pairing him with an elite quarterback is a recipe for a Super Bowl.
An elite coach and QB in New England? Man, that sounds familiar.
Why they won’t
Because I'm not sure if the defense is good. Average? Most likely. But it's a weakness for a team that needs to win four games to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots' defense finished near the top 10 in almost every major category, but it plummeted to 18th in success rate. Now, a caveat is that the rush defense really struggled when defensive tackle Milton Williams went down with an injury. He's back, and that's a big boost as their defensive success rate dropped to 26th with him off the field this year versus 17th with him on it, according to FTN Data. Still, this is not a defense that will put fear into its opponents, and no matter how many points you score, if you can't get stops, you aren't going to win the Super Bowl.
Why L.A. will win Super Bowl; why it won’t
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Why the Chargers will win the Super Bowl
Because Justin Herbert is awesome, and coach Jim Harbaugh knows how to win football games, and if you pair those two with a good defense, anything is possible. Despite having one of the worst offensive lines in football this season (due to injuries), the Chargers still won 11 games. They ranked 24th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate on offense, so if they can squeeze out any more production from the offense, they'll have a chance to make a run. If you're banking on anything, bank on Herbert's ability to put his team on his back and Harbaugh's success as a head coach. The Chargers are 6-2 in one-score games, and while that usually reverts to 50-50 in the postseason, I am willing to give Herbert and Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt in those situations because we have seen elite quarterback and head coach combinations thrive in the past.
Why they won’t
Because the offensive line is in shambles. Good quarterback play and coaching can only go so far. I'd say the Chargers are similar to the Patriots in that they have the quarterback and coach combination, but the Patriots are putting up top-of-the-league stats, while the Chargers' offensive metrics are nauseating. The defense finished around the top five in just about every metric, but the Chargers are not elite enough for me to get behind this offense. No matter how good your defense is, you can't win a Super Bowl with a bottom-seven offense, and that's what they've been since offensive tackle Joe Alt went down with his season-ending injury in Week 9.
How Maye took a Year 2 leap
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At the end of this year’s NFL MVP race, it’s the perfect time to give Patriots quarterback Drake Maye his flowers.
The 23-year-old showed promise as a rookie, but he truly blossomed in his second season, leading New England to a dominant season and an AFC East title. Maye’s poise, decision-making and leadership are well beyond his years and will be tested tonight. Regardless, he has a lot to be proud of entering the postseason.
How did Maye take such a massive leap this season?
Chad Graff of The Athletic provides insights in this engaging feature, which you can read here.
Herbert’s toughness defines Chargers’ season
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Behind a battered offensive line and navigating injuries to his skill position players, not to mention substantial injuries of his own, Justin Herbert led the Chargers to the postseason with his toughness and determination. His season began with warranted MVP hype, and while that faded throughout the season, the 27-year-old navigated adverse circumstances to will Los Angeles into the playoffs again, setting up tonight’s matchup in New England.
Ahead of kickoff, check out this story from Daniel Popper of The Athletic, which illustrates the toughness of the Chargers quarterback and the respect he's earned from his team as a result.
