Eagles-49ers preview: Kyle Shanahan-Vic Fangio matchup, Niners vs. Saquon Barkley
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Zach Berman, Matt Barrows, and Vic Tafur
The 49ers are dealing with a rash of injuries, while the Eagles have been inconsistent on offense despite deep talent.
Throughout the week, The Athletic’s San Francisco49ers reporters and Philadelphia Eagles reporters exchanged messages previewing Sunday’s Wild Card Round playoff game. Here’s an excerpt of the correspondence between Zach Berman, Matt Barrows, and Vic Tafur:
Berman: Matt and Vic:
It seemed like this game would happen eventually, right? The Eagles and 49ers both entered the season in the top 10 in Super Bowl odds. One of these teams has represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in each of the past three seasons and five of the past eight seasons. You figured there’d be a good chance they’d meet on the path to the Super Bowl.
This line has moved this week and the Eagles were 4.5-point favorites on Tuesday night, which speaks to the homefield advantage, the rest from the season finale and the health of the roster compared to the 49ers. (Note: The Eagles were six-point favorites on Friday afternoon.) It appears the Eagles will have 21 of 22 starters on the field, with right tackle Lane Johnson and linebacker Nakobe Dean trending toward playing. Still, the 49ers won 12 games this season and have one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses (No. 2 in DVOA, No. 8 in EPA/play, No. 4 in success rate.) They’re also a bona fide heavyweight.
The questions in this game — at least in Philadelphia — are whether Vic Fangio’s defense can slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and whether an inconsistent Eagles offense can take advantage of a depleted 49ers defense. It’s a fascinating matchup for two playoff-tested rosters and coaching staffs.
What are you focusing on this week?
Barrows: Wow — 21 of 22 starters! The 49ers would leap for joy with that level of health, although they’d probably turn an ankle upon landing. Injuries once again were a dominant theme for Shanahan’s team in 2025, with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and first-round pick Mykel Williams going on injured reserve by the midpoint of the season. The injuries have been particularly bad at linebacker. Warner’s backup, Tatum Bethune, is out for the game, and the linebacker starters could be 11-year veteran Eric Kendricks and recently added Garret Wallow.
That seems to bode poorly for stopping Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ ground game. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ pass rush has been tepid without Bosa. Former Eagle Bryce Huff seemed to be in a perfect role as a pass-rush specialist when Bosa was healthy. Injuries, however, have given him a larger role, and he hasn’t risen to the occasion. The 49ers ranked last in the league with 20 sacks, which is a franchise low (in a non-strike-shortened season.) I know the Eagles’ offense hasn’t exactly been humming, but it’s capable of taking advantage of a compromised defense, right?
Berman: Based on talent, absolutely. Based on performance, it depends on the day — or the half — considering their in-game inconsistencies. This is the least efficient and least productive offense during Nick Sirianni’s five seasons, which has gone over with Eagles fans as you would imagine. The offense might hit another gear for the postseason, though. In 2022 and 2024, they averaged nearly eight more points per game in the postseason than in the regular season.
Part of what’s been so vexing with the Eagles’ offense is you don’t need to squint to see what it can become. Jalen Hurts had the three best passer ratings of his career this season (Week 7 against the Minnesota Vikings, Week 15 against the Las Vegas Raiders, Week 8 against the New York Giants). Saquon Barkley averaged 100 yards per game in December. They have the best red-zone offense in the NFL. When it’s framed that way, it’s head-scratching that this offense ranks No. 19 in EPA/play and No. 17 in DVOA. The problem has been that a league-worst 30.5 percent of their offensive drives have gone three-and-out. If they can sustain drives — and as Brooks Kubena wrote, get to the red zone — they can be dangerous.
You mentioned Barkley. His production improved in December, and he had a big postseason run last year. The Seattle Seahawks’ ground success last week offered a template, even if the run scheme is different. However, this is not simply on Barkley. He’ll get the yards if they’re available. The return of Johnson on the offensive line is critical, and the Week 18 rest should (in theory) help left tackle Jordan Mailata, left guard Landon Dickerson, and center Cam Jurgens near the top-of-league form.
One other key part of this: Hurts’ legs. Hurts rushed for a career-low 26.2 yards per game — down 15.7 yards per game from last season. Perhaps it’s helped him stay healthy, but it would behoove the Eagles to take the straitjacket off (to borrow a Hurts postseason term from last season) and let Hurts be Hurts. The Eagles are 9-7 since 2021 when Hurts rushes for fewer than 20 yards, including 3-3 this season. They are 6-2 this season when he tops 30 rushing yards, and 42-16 in his career. A mobile Hurts will benefit Barkley and the entire offense.
If the Eagles can take advantage of the undermanned 49ers defense, they should be able to put up points. But like any 49ers game, Kyle Shanahan’s offense can take over. You know Vic Fangio well. (And, it seems, came close to covering him again if he had returned to San Francisco under Shanahan.) What do you make of the Shanahan-Fangio matchup?
The Eagles will have to try to slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense. (Sergio Estrada / Imagn Images)
Tafur: It’s clear they’re big fans of each other, with Shanahan calling Fangio “the best” defensive coordinator schematically. Fangio is 3-1 head-to-head against Shanahan, allowing a total of 41 points. But they haven’t faced off since 2018, and Shanahan didn’t have a lot to work with in those games.
Now he has Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle playing at a high level, and the offensive line was starting to play well before Trent Williams missed last week with a hamstring injury.
I know the Eagles defense does a great job covering tight ends, but how are they matched up with a running back who can catch a swing pass as well as line up outside and run a route?
Berman: Good question. It’s a key to this game. The Eagles allow the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL this season (618 yards), including the second-most yards per catch. Two of the three longest receptions the Eagles allowed were to running backs (Bucky Irving had a 71-yarder in Week 4, Kimani Vidal in Week 14). From a personnel perspective, the Eagles have outstanding linebackers. Zack Baun is a Pro Bowler. Nakobe Dean will return this week and has been a big-time player this season. But their safeties are not the strength of the defense. A key player will be Cooper DeJean, who might be the NFL’s best slot cornerback and is a do-it-all player. Fangio knows the threat McCaffrey presents.
“He’s always a threat that way, and they do like to scheme plays for him in the passing game,” Fangio said.
I’m curious to see the Eagles’ personnel packages. The Seahawks stayed in nickel even against the 49ers’ two-back look. It would make sense for the Eagles to do the same, which would allow DeJean to play closer to the ball.
I’m also curious about your perspective on this:
The 49ers win if ____.
The Eagles win if ___.
Barrows: Every so often, Shanahan plans a “40” game, which is one in which he and the offense strive for 40 carries. Even if the 49ers have more than 30 carries, it suggests that the game is close and they’ve done a good job controlling the clock. I’m sure the Eagles fans realize their team has a decided advantage in talent and health. If the game stays close late, that might lead to some uncomfortable shifting in seats or perhaps a smattering of polite boos? All of that would play into the 49ers’ hands as underdogs.
The Eagles have been good, not great, at stopping the run this year, and the 49ers’ zone-running concept is usually better against teams that don’t see it all the time. Of course, that plan is easier said than done, especially when someone like Fangio knows it’s coming. The 49ers’ rushing attack stunk against the Seahawks last week. San Francisco had just 12 total rushes.
As for the Eagles, I think they win as long as they don’t make any colossal blunders. The 49ers don’t put pressure on quarterbacks, they’re not good at stopping the run and they don’t create a lot of turnovers. Even if Philadelphia’s offense sputters early and the game is close, it seems like the Eagles’ talent and rest advantage will take over at some point. For example, the San Francisco defense is especially vulnerable to quarterback runs. If the Eagles take the governor off of Hurts, he could easily pick up three or four first downs and a touchdown with his legs. How do you guys see it playing out?
Berman: Good insight!
The Eagles are more talented, healthier, better-rested and playing at home. Those advantages will show up Sunday. I see the Eagles winning both lines of scrimmage, which will determine the game. They should be able to protect Hurts and block for Barkley on offense, and they can menace Purdy on third downs on defense.
The path to losing this game would be if the Eagles have one of those silent spells that they’ve been prone to this season. The 49ers fans might not realize this, but Eagles fans know it well: The Eagles have had halves this season with -1 yards, 4 yards, and 33 yards. If that happens in the playoffs, especially against a team capable of putting up points, you get sent home early.
If this game is played into the 30s, my guess is it favors the 49ers. They’ve scored in the 40s three times this season. The Eagles are better positioned for a game in the teens or 20s, so they need to play good defense, not turn the ball over and convert in the red zone.
That’s how I see this game playing out. I’m expecting a better offensive performance against the 49ers defense, particularly taking advantage of those linebackers. Look for Barkley to top 100 rushing yards and Hurts to reach 40 rushing yards. On defense, the Eagles need to get the 49ers off the field on third down. That’s easier said than done, as the 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in third-down offense, but the Seahawks were adept in this area last week. The Eagles’ interior defensive linemen will push the pocket against a lighter offensive line, with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis leading the way. I’ll take Eagles 24, 49ers 21.
What are your final predictions?
Barrows:Eagles 30, 49ers 20
Tafur: 49ers fans love going back to the Purdy money, and whether or not he is really worth $245 million. Many — not to mention San Mateo native and famous broadcaster/owner Tom Brady — were calling for the Niners to stick with Mac Jones after he won five games for an injured Purdy. Purdy obviously came back and won six straight games, scoring 10 touchdowns over a two-game span.
This is a high-stakes game for Purdy, who has to outplay Hurts for the 49ers to win Sunday. Part of that will be leaning on McCaffrey (30 touches?) and taking advantage of his great chemistry with Kittle, despite the Eagles’ success covering tight ends. Getting back Williams (likely) and Ricky Pearsall would be a huge help.
The 49ers’ defensive woes are well-documented. They don’t rush the quarterback well, miss tackles and they’re down to their fourth starting middle linebacker. Even when it is at its worst, though, the defense has shown a penchant for making a key third-down or red-zone stop, and they have a lot of confidence in coordinator Robert Saleh to find them an edge. Rookie cornerback Upton Stout is coming off his best game (which is saying something) and could make a name for himself Sunday.
San Francisco has a lot of belief in themselves, and the team chemistry is off the charts, all of which leads to giving the Eagles a real scare. However, the health and talent disparities are just too much to overcome. Eagles 27, 49ers 24.
