Edmonton Oilers 2025-26 midseason assessment: The good, the bad and the ugly
The Oilers entered 2026 atop the Pacific Division with a 20-15-6 record but their flaws are apparent.
The Edmonton Oilers took fans on a wild roller-coaster ride during the first half of the 2025-26 season. In August, I predicted the Oilers would score 282 goals and allow 236. The belief at the time was that Edmonton would thrive on the power play and hold its own at even strength. In the first half of the season, the Oilers scored 137 goals (right in the range of expected) and allowed 136 goals (far more than predicted).
The recent shuffle of goalies has helped the situation, but several players are well off the pace management expected of them. Here’s a look at the summer predictions compared to the actual results. The gap from ceiling to floor on this team is historic.
The skill lines
December saw the good kind of regression at the top of the roster. Connor McDavid’s first two months were well below his established level of ability. He posted a searing December (13-21-34 in 15 games) and is now ahead of his predicted number:
Player
Predicted
Actual
Connor McDavid1.64
1.71
Leon Draisaitl1.47
1.39
Zach Hyman0.79
1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.71
1
Vasily Podkolzin0.33
0.32
Points per game
Most of the players projected to play on the top two lines thrived. McDavid and Draisaitl drove the offence, with significant contributions from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. Vasily Podkolzin is delivering on expectations and is on track for the best offensive season of his young career.
McDavid’s scoring and outscoring at five-on-five are both down this season. His 2.43 points per 60 in the metric is the lowest of his career, as is his five-on-five goal share (51 percent), via Natural Stat Trick. For any mere mortal, these totals represent career peaks, but for the best hockey player in the world, five-on-five scoring and outscoring are slightly below average, even with his fantastic December.
The rest of the team’s skill players struggled in the first half, save for a late signing.
Player
Predicted
Actual
Matt Savoie0.49
0.26
Andrew Mangiapane0.43
0.28
Ike Howard
0.36
0.18
Jack Roslovicn/a
0.71
Points per game
Matt Savoie is off the pace and is especially worrisome at five-on-five. His 0.75 points per 60 in the game discipline is poor, but certain circumstances impacted Savoie’s performance in the first half. In the early stages of 2025-26, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch used Savoie in a depth role and on the penalty kill. In the first 21 games of the year, Savoie’s points per 60 at five-on-five was 0.49 across multiple lines. Since then, he has raised it to 1.01. That’s still a far cry from replacement-level production and should be considered a disappointment. Look for a spike in the second half. Savoie is too talented; he will move the needle offensively.
Veteran Andrew Mangiapane has had a tough time, and rookie Ike Howard was sent to the AHL Bakersfield Condors early in the season. Part of the reason for Savoie and Mangiapane’s struggles is due to the late free-agent signing of Jack Roslovic. He represented a perfect fit for the roster, with Stan Bowman announcing the signing shortly after the regular season began.
Look for more chances to play on the skill lines for Savoie and a Mangiapane trade. Roslovic has a good chance to run on the Draisaitl line with Podkolzin, the way things are shaping up currently.
The depth forwards
This is the Achilles’ heel of the roster currently. Edmonton’s third and fourth lines meet at the corner of poor production and no-movement clauses. The Oilers have several players in this area and can’t move them due to the contracts signed.
Player
Predicted
Actual
Adam Henrique0.41
0.23
Trent Frederic0.38
0.08
0.36
0.23
Curtis Lazar0.28
0.1
Kasperi Kapanen0.27
0.33
Mattias Janmark0.2
0.24
0.16
0.2
Roby Jarventie0.22
DNP
Max Jones0.2
0.25
n/a
0.33
Connor Clattenburgn/a
0.2
Points per game
Adam Henrique is the lone pure centre in this group, and his scoring number is not close to good enough. What’s worse, the Oilers are scoring at a meagre rate while Henrique is on the ice. The result is a 32 percent goal share at five-on-five with the veteran.
Something’s gotta give
Trent Frederic has barely touched the scoreboard this season, while David Tomasek and Noah Philp are no longer with the club, in part due to a lack of offensive production. Kasperi Kapanen’s return is much anticipated, and his speed plus size are badly needed on the third line.
Recalls Quinn Hutson, Connor Clattenburg and Max Jones showed well in small samples and could return soon. In looking at the depth veterans on this list, Kapanen and Mattias Janmark shine like diamonds. Those no-movement contracts to depth forwards are provably unwise, as we see with the Oilers currently.
Mangiapane is reportedly willing to waive; that’s the next logical step. Look for continued turnover and possibly a surprise promotion or demotion soon. The situation has reached a pressure point, and the depth lines must show some progress soon.
Defence
Edmonton’s defence was projected to be a real strength, but it took time for things to come into view. Offensively, Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman are tracking well head of expectations, while Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse are in the range of normal.
Player
Predicted
Actual
Evan Bouchard0.71
0.9
Mattias Ekholm0.44
0.41
Jake Walman0.44
0.59
Darnell Nurse0.4
0.37
Brett Kulak0.23
0.06
0.21
0.19
Troy Stecher0.18
0
Alec Regula
0.16
0.13
Points per game
Spencer Stastney and Riley Stillman have also played for the Oilers this season, but neither man has scored a point in limited action. When evaluating the defence, five-on-five expected GA-60 is a valuable metric to use when discussing defensive success. The shots against, the quality of chances surrendered all find their way to the expected GA-60. Here’s a look at this year’s five-on-five expected GA-60 for each of the current roster defencemen.
Player
X-GA per 60
Ty Emberson
2.42
Spencer Stastney2.47
2.55
2.62
Oilers average
2.63
2.64
2.79
2.99
Five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The third pairing often has the best numbers in this kind of examination, and Stastney and Ty Emberson show up well here. One of the reasons third pairs do well is the quality of competition. These men are often playing the other team’s depth personnel. Posting strong numbers in those situations is vital in moving up the depth chart. Stastney would appear to be doing exactly that currently.
The top pair comes in around average for Oilers defencemen this year. However, Ekholm and Bouchard face the opposition’s best a high percentage of the time, via Puck IQ. This season, the tandem is facing elites 37 percent of the time, a major spike from last season (29 percent for Bouchard). The duo is flourishing.
Nurse, Alec Regula and Walman represent the second pairing here, and there’s work to do. However, Nurse played 33 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites in the first half (25 percent last season), so there’s some explanation there.
All defencemen were better in December, and that bodes well for the rest of the season. If Walman can stay healthy, this Oilers defence should boast the highest quality and the most depth the team has had in several years.
Goaltending
Goaltending isn’t that big of a deal, unless you don’t have goaltending, and then it’s everything. The Oilers ran with two goalies (Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard) for the last two Stanley Cup runs. It was a good bet the team would make a change before the 2026 playoffs began, and this fall, Bowman made two deals to address the situation.
Here are the totals from the incumbents, and the results from the newcomers.
Player
Predicted
Actual
Stuart Skinner0.901
0.891
Calvin Pickard0.887
0.874
Tristan Jarryn/a
0.887
Connor Ingramn/a
0.881
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The new goalie rotation involves all but Skinner, who is now a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The save percentages haven’t improved, but the wins have come more often. There is no doubt the organization received a boost with the change in net, and Jarry projects as the starter when back from injury. He won his three starts with Edmonton in the week that followed his acquisition.
Bottom line
I projected this year’s Oilers team to score 46 more goals than allowed; through midseason, the club has scored just one more goal (137-136).
The Oilers’ problem is five-on-five play, specifically when the third and fourth lines are on the ice. The team is 62-52 (54 percent share) when McDavid and or Draisaitl are on the ice at five-on-five. When both men are off the ice, the goal count is 19-43 (31 percent). The drag on results is such an albatross that the top talents can’t overcome it.
You could make the case that this team has the most drastic gap between floor and ceiling any true Stanley Cup contender has ever shown. It’s dire. That said, the hard part for any franchise is finding McDavid and Draisaitl. Losing championships due to poor choices in support players is unacceptable.
That’s the job for Bowman, the coaching staff and the players. The top end of this roster is elite. The bottom end is below expansion level.
How did the Oilers get here? More importantly, how can they fix this problem in the next 63 days? Fans have a right to expect a concerted effort to fix the problem. A recall of Howard or Hutson would be an excellent first step.