Everything fantasy football managers need to know for Week 17
It's championship time. Lock in. Here's how to win your title.
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Season’s greetings and whatnot. Ho-ho-ho, good cheer, yuletide joy, etc. We truly hope you had a wonderful holiday, but it’s time to refocus on your fantasy football squad. We already have three games in the books and two more on the schedule today.
Given the vast majority of fantasy leagues conclude in Week 17 (a figure that rises to 100 percent when you exclude masochists), this will be the final Saturday fantasy edition of Scoop City for the season. Win or lose each week, hope you’ve enjoyed the ride with us.
Now, let’s get this final W, then celebrate like champions.
📰 Lineup News
Loveless and Lamar-less
- Lamar Jackson is listed as doubtful for Baltimore’s must-win game today at Lambeau after suffering a significant back contusion. It’s gonna be Tyler Huntley at the controls against the Packers’ damaged-yet-dangerous defense.
- Josh Jacobs (knee) practiced in a limited capacity this week and doesn’t have an injury designation for that date with the Ravens. Green Bay clinched a playoff berth via Detroit’s loss on Christmas, but the division title is still in play, so the team isn’t likely to reduce the usage of key offensive playmakers, including its lead RB.
- Sticking with that same game, Jordan Love will not be available for the Packers, but Malik Willis has proven to be a capable Plan B for Green Bay. Willis deserves superflex consideration, given his rushing upside.
- Woody Marks (ankle) returned to full practice sessions this week and appears good to go for today’s matchup with the Chargers. Let’s remember he’d taken over the featured role in Houston, seeing no fewer than 16 touches in five straight games before the injury.
- Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) shed the non-contact jersey in yesterday’s practice, a great sign for his availability ahead of a layup matchup with the Jets.
- The Raiders’ Brock Bowers was placed on IR on Wednesday, ending his season. He’s battled a knee issue since opening week. TE Michael Mayer should see a bump in opportunities in the closing weeks.
- Dylan Sampson (hand) is practicing ahead of tomorrow’s meeting with the Steelers, a much-needed development for Cleveland following Quinshon Judkins’ season-ending injury. Sampson and Raheim Sanders will presumably lead the Browns backfield this week.
- TE Harold Fannin Jr. suffered a groin tweak in Cleveland’s practice yesterday, but he told reporters he still plans on facing the Steelers. David Njoku (knee) has already been ruled out.
- George Kittle (ankle) is headed for game-time decision status this week — not ideal, since the Niners are involved in the second-to-last game on the slate. Fortunately, if you keep scrolling, you will find several potential replacement options.
Toolkit
Week 17 wisdom
📈 Championship Week rankings: Joe Burrow sits atop the QB ranks again, just one week after all the shouty national sports shows wanted him traded and/or shut down.
📝 Cheat sheet: Jess Bryant sets the table for Week 17 in far greater detail than this newsletter is willing to go. (We have a firm no-Jets policy here.)
➕ Waiver wire: Cardinals RB Michael Carter and Bears WR Luther Burden lead a deep collection of widely available players who deserve serious flex consideration.
Brain Freeze
Don’t sweat the weather
One of the defining traits of the clutchest athletes across all sports is their ability to process the biggest on-field moments as if they were mundane — to not become skittish and glitchy when the lights are brightest.
Right now, you need to do the same. Summon your inner Joe Montana. Roster management in Championship Week requires a clear head and steady hands. This is not the moment to get weird.
In fact, the best way to manage your squad in December is to proceed as if this is merely some random weekend in October. Make decisions in the manner that got you here. Pretend it’s Week 8. We just discussed the importance of all this a few weeks ago as the fantasy playoffs were getting underway. Fantasy galaxy-braining is a fatal problem in the postseason.
Personally, I can tell you the worst lineup decisions I’ve ever made have been related to weather, which of course also means most of those terrible choices happened in must-win weeks. Even veteran fantasy managers can be rattled by wind, rain, cold and snow. We simply do not give elite athletes enough credit for being able to function normally in situations where the rest of us would not.
We’re likely to see precipitation at several outdoor NFL venues tomorrow, with rainfall ranging from light to (potentially) torrential. Several of you have woven weather forecasts into your sit-start questions this week. But we aren’t expecting blizzard or monsoon conditions anywhere, so none of you should be making any wild lineup swaps.
I’ll remind you that three weeks ago, the Bengals and Bills combined for 73 total points. And if that again repeats, you may well celebrate like this …
As a general rule, inclement weather leads to more bad fantasy decisions than poor fantasy performances. Over to meteorologist/fantasy expert Jake Ciely for more …
💬 Jake’s take
I have a Fantasy 101 on this topic that includes a weather study and breakdown of effects. To give the quick version, wind is much more of an issue than precipitation ever is. Once we start talking 25-plus mph winds and gusts into the 35-plus range, it’s time to start considering alternatives. Mixing precipitation with wind means it’s time for a full pivot outside of our studs — and maaaaybe even them.
Precipitation in its own right is only worth your attention if it’s heavy rain or constant snow covering the field. Both affect the passing game the most. Running backs have a distinct advantage, often making defenders Tokyo Drift. The best YAC wideouts can do the same, as long as their QBs have the talent to play/throw through the weather.
Rankings outliers for Week 17
If you’re looking for someone to blame if things go horribly wrong guidance on your most difficult fantasy decisions, Jake is here for you. His weekly rankings are among the most accurate in the business.
Without fail, we find a few names in unexpected places each week.
- Jaxson Dart definitely now seems risky and unplayable in Championship Week, and it’s reflected in his rank (QB17). The Giants had no interest in exposing their rookie quarterback to any sort of negative outcome last week, as he attempted only 13 passes and ran the ball twice. That sort of usage won’t pay the fantasy bills.
- Ashton Jeanty is screaming up the ranks (RB10) after detonating against Houston. He finds himself in a much friendlier spot this week, with his Raiders facing a Giants defense that allows a league-worst 5.5 YPC.
- Terrance Ferguson clearly has Jake’s attention after reaching the end zone against Seattle last week. The Rams have been living in 13-personnel, which has resulted in the young tight end playing 73.1 percent of the team’s offensive snaps over the last three games. He lands at TE17 on Ciely’s board, a whopping 14 spots ahead of industry consensus.
Matchups to embrace 🤗 and avoid 😨
KC Joyner explores the best and worst individual matchups every week at The Athletic, searching for fantasy opportunities. Here’s a sampling of the strongest and weakest plays for Week 17:Start with confidence
- QBs Drake Maye (at NYJ) and Matthew Stafford (at ATL), RBs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell (at CLE), Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (at CAR), WRs Drake London (vs. LAR) and Tee Higgins (at ARI) and TE Darren Waller (vs. TB)
Exercise extreme caution
- QB C.J. Stroud (at LAC), RB Rico Dowdle and WR Tetairoa McMillan (vs. SEA), WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin (at MIA), Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen (vs. HOU)
Stream big 💪
All season, we’ve used this pocket of the newsletter to list players who are droppable from fantasy rosters. But at this late stage, you can pretty much cut anyone you don’t intend to start (and who you wouldn’t mind facing if your opponent scoops them up). So let’s not worry about drops and instead focus on a trio of widely available names to help you patch roster holes:
- Tyler Shough has quietly cleared 20 standard fantasy points in four straight games, playing his way into the circle of (semi) trust. He’s the QB who gets to throw to Chris Olave, so that helps. The Saints’ signal caller also has a dash of rushing ability and a matchup with Tennessee.
- Naturally, the right answer to “Audric Estime or Evan Hull?” turned out to be Taysom Hill. I’m embarrassed to have not seen it coming. In New Orleans, all roads lead to Taysom. He operated as the centerpiece of the offense in last week’s win against the Jets, carrying the ball a dozen times, catching four balls and throwing a 38-yard dart of a touchdown pass. He’s a cheat-code TE once again.
- Elijah Higgins has played over 60 percent of the snaps for the Cardinals in each of their last three games, and he erupted against Atlanta last week, catching seven of eight targets for 91 yards. This week, both Higgins and Trey McBride should be able to feast against Cincinnati, a team that’s been historically generous to opposing tight ends.
Sleeper of the week 💤
Last Monday night, 49ers TE Jake Tonges made one of the filthiest non-catches we have seen all season. It was ruled incomplete on the field and went unchallenged, mostly because no reasonable person would have believed it possible. He’s simply a terrific pass-catching tight end, an unfair luxury for the Niners. Earlier this season, when Kittle was on IR with a hamstring injury, Tonges produced a three-week stretch in which he caught 16 passes for 157 yards and two scores. He’s a threat to reach the end zone in any week in which Kittle is compromised.
💬 From the Discord
The Athletic’s fantasy analysts have been conducting regular AMA sessions in our Discord server throughout the season, doing our best to help guide your squad to Championship Week. Here’s a relatable question from Christmas Day:
cmosguy: My fantasy championship has completely imploded. CeeDee Lamb is a dud today. I cannot decide between Corum, A.J. Brown (wisdom teeth?), Romeo Doubs, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Need 2 of them in flex. What do you recommend?
Let’s take a deep, calming breath, Cmos. We have plenty of fantasy action still ahead of us. You got this. Brown is really on a heater right now, with 90 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s just about un-benchable for me. Brown returned to practice yesterday after having wisdom teeth removed earlier in the week, so he’s not at risk of missing tomorrow’s game at Buffalo. Tracy would be my other play against a vulnerable Raiders defense. He looked excellent against Minnesota last week in a degree-of-difficulty matchup. Tracy has also averaged 18 touches per game over his last six.
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