Fantasy trends and hidden gems: Emil Heineman, Simon Nemec and more risers to target
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Shayna Goldman
Shayna Goldman offers help for fantasy hockey managers, be it a short-term fix or a player who offers upside for the long haul.
Sometimes managers use their adds and drops to shake up one or two roster spots every week, quickly turning over a couple of lineup slots with timely short-term picks. Others try to play the long game, targeting risers who’ll produce more consistently over time.
This week, I’ll help with both strategies.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, BUF | 39% Yahoo
Luukkonen has taken over the Sabres’ net, with Alex Lyon sidelined for at least the next 7-10 days. That means Luukkonen could start up to three games next week, with Colten Ellis likely stepping in for one of Buffalo’s back-to-backs. After some ups and downs in the first couple of months of the season, UPL has been really solid as of late — he has earned four quality starts in his past five appearances, which add up to a GSAx of 8.34.
Jared McCann, C/LW, SEA | 32% Yahoo
McCann likely wouldn’t be this available if it weren’t for two injury stints that have limited his season to just 17 games. But when he is healthy, he has been an efficient scorer with 14 points. When accounting for minutes played, it shakes out to 3.02 points per 60, which leads the Kraken and ranks 45th among forwards with at least 100 all-situation minutes played. Since returning in late December, McCann has been shooting the puck a lot, generating quality looks, and converting — three goals and six points in his past five games.
Josh Doan, LW/RW, BUF | 20% Yahoo
Doan has roved between a short-term pick up and a lineup staple this year in Buffalo. Just when he started to make a more consistent impact on the scoresheet, he experienced a seven-game stretch in December (during the Sabres’ win streak) when he only mustered one point. But there are positive signs — his four points in the past three games, and his overall two-way impact in Buffalo. The Sabres’ xG rate is up by 0.78 per 60 with Doan on the ice relative to his teammates; it’s just a matter of turning those chances into goals more often.
Simon Edvinsson, D, DET | 20% Yahoo
Some offensive red flags are emerging in Detroit at even strength lately, with the first line struggling to produce. The Alex DeBrincat line has been the most productive, which makes his center, Andrew Copp, an option for next week. But it doesn’t hurt to look at someone whose value isn’t driven solely by scoring. Edvinsson is helping thread the needle from the backend this season, but his fantasy impact tends to come from the peripherals. His shot blocking could be especially useful against a team like the Hurricanes on Monday, as they generate a ton of shots.
Speaking of the Canes, Miller has picked up the pace offensively with six points in his past six games. His underlying numbers have been solid all season, and the tide is finally starting to turn on the scoresheet on both ends of the ice. It will be interesting to see whether he can keep that up when Jaccob Slavin returns, since that should take some defensive zones off Miller’s plate.
Bobby McMann, LW, TOR | 14% Yahoo
Is Auston Matthews back? The Maple Leafs’ star has scored seven goals and 11 points in his past five games, which is good news for the team around him. At even strength, that’s Max Domi and McMann. That trio has earned a 60 percent xG rate and outscored expectations lately — with a pace of 4.43 goals per 60. So, while there are some long-term sustainability questions, it may be worth buying in while the shooting is this hot.
Pavol Regenda, LW, SJS | 6% Yahoo
Another week, another deep pick from San Jose. Last week, I looked at Igor Chernyshov, who is playing well alongside MVP-candidate Macklin Celebrini on the top line. This week, the focus is on second-liner Regenda. He hasn’t played a ton of minutes this season, but he has made the most of his opportunity with 4.57 points per 60, which ranks fourth in the entire league. Small samples can blow rates out of proportion, and that is definitely the case here. Still, as much as you should expect his numbers to regress, he is making a case to stay at the NHL level with his recent play. The Sharks’ second line may not have made an impact on the scoresheet on Wednesday night, for example, but they controlled play in their minutes. The trio generated seven scoring chances, according to NaturalStatTrick, and didn’t concede one.
Mavrik Bourque, C/RW, DAL | 1% Yahoo
Bourque is getting another look with the Stars’ dynamic duo of Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Bourque’s fantasy potential changes by association alone, considering what an offensive force Robertson has been so far this season at five-on-five. Since reuniting this trio, the Stars have earned a 56 percent xG rate and outscored opponents 5-4 in their minutes. It’s not the most eye-popping pace, but their ability to generate quality looks stood out on Wednesday night. If that was a sign of what’s to come, Bourque’s fantasy outlook could improve ahead of the Stars’ California swing.
With the latest fantasy ranking update from Dom Luszczyszyn, we can take a look at the biggest swings in value in the first half of the season. The first on that list is Darren Raddysh, who has taken over as the Lightning’s top offensive defenseman in Victor Hedman’s absence. Since he is already rostered in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues, most don’t need advice on whether to pick him up.
The second player on that list, however, isn’t as much of a slam dunk with just two points in his past seven games. Heineman’s the kind of player who can boost a lineup in a depth role — he shoots the puck a bunch and hits a ton, but doesn’t consistently score enough to be a fixture. Maybe his recent shift back to Mathew Barzal’s wing will change that, since he has scored at a rate of 2.17 points per 60 in their shared five-on-five minutes.
Tyler Bertuzzi, LW/RW, CHI | 58% Yahoo
Bertuzzi was such a bright spot for managers who invested early this season. His shot volume and ability to drive to the scoring areas made an impact on the scoresheet on a fairly consistent basis until the Blackhawks hit a wall in mid-December. That scoring slide for Bertuzzi, unsurprisingly, coincided with a Connor Bedard injury. But there are a few positive takeaways for managers considering how to proceed with Bertuzzi or add the winger: he is starting to find his footing again on the scoresheet without Bedard, and the star center is set to return soon. For managers who want in on the Bertuzzi-Bedard action but need a deeper pick, look to Andre Burakovsky.
Luke Evangelista, RW, NSH | 11% Yahoo
The Predators’ early-season woes rightfully scared off many fantasy managers, but this team has picked up the pace offensively, and Evangelista is a key reason. The winger has earned a 60 percent xG rate at five-on-five, and matched that share on the scoresheet. Nashville has gone up 26-17 in Evangelista’s minutes, and they could actually have more in the tank — the team is generating chances at a rate of 3.23 per 60 with him on the ice.
Denton Mateychuk, D, CBJ 28% Yahoo
Those in deeper leagues can struggle to find productive defensemen to round out their blue lines. Sometimes the simplest method is leaning on the Good Teammate Effect. It’s the best way to piggyback off some of the top-scoring defensemen in the league, like Cale Makar, Lane Hutson, Quinn Hughes and, in Mateychuk’s case, Zach Werenski. Werenski is the Blue Jackets’ engine from the backend — despite playing tough minutes, he thrives in all three zones and drives play right into the offensive zone. Columbus has earned a 54 percent xG rate in their shared minutes and outscored opponents 17-12.
Simon Nemec, D, NJD | 16% Yahoo
Due to some defensive concerns, the process has been far from perfect in Nemec’s minutes this season. But the team also scored 1.07 more goals per 60 with Nemec deployed, relative to his teammates. So his return from a 12-game absence will be much-welcomed, considering how often this team has struggled to score lately. The pressure is on for the Devils to turn things around, and with this group finally getting closer to full strength, they have the best chance to rebound.
