Fantasy trends and hidden gems: Steven Stamkos' resurgence; Igor Chernyshov's opportunity
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Shayna Goldman
Shayna Goldman points fantasy hockey managers towards the best waiver wire help while offering guidance for the tricky NHL holiday slate.
The holiday season is winding down, so it’s time to get back on track. After this special Wednesday edition of “Fantasy Trends,” expect more consistency for future Wednesdays. As normal as January may be after these past few weeks of chaos, there is a little extra pressure on the next few weeks with the Olympic break coming in February. So let’s start stacking wins in these next few matchups.
Weekend Picks
Steven Stamkos, C/LW/RW, NSH | 68% Yahoo
The Stamkos resurgence is real over the past month of action. This isn’t just some flash in the pan — for the first time in his Preds’ tenure, the coaches are actually maximizing his skillset. Stamkos is on the wing, with a defensively-conscious center who generates a lot of high-danger passes at five-on-five. And that’s setting him up to shoot the puck more often and more efficiently, with more of his attempts going on goal and coming from the quality areas. The Predators play on a lighter New Year’s Day, and then a busy Saturday, but Stamkos still has some value if you have any openings — he’s eligible at all three forward designations.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW/RW, COL | 48% Yahoo
Two players stand out in Colorado: Landeskog and Brock Nelson. While Nelson has the scoring edge right now, Landeskog 1) shoots the puck more often, 2) has a higher xG rate, 3) brings an element of physicality, and 4) is currently slotted alongside Nathan MacKinnon at even strength. He just needs to get his shooting above seven percent. If that can rebound, it should help close the gap between his expected (14.6) and actual (six goals) scoring. The Avs’ schedule won’t be easy this weekend, with the Canes and Panthers on the docket, but it’s a good test for the clutch forward.
Jackson Blake, RW, CAR | 22% Yahoo
With Logan Stankoven jumping up to Sebastian Aho’s wing, Blake and Nikolaj Ehlers have a new center — Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The trio has generated some chemistry over the past couple of games. Against the Red Wings on Saturday, they produced a 14-6 edge in shots, earned a 74 percent xG rate, and broke even in scoring. They stayed in control against the Rangers, with a 13-3 advantage in shot attempts and a 65 percent xG rate. That even-strength role, plus Blake’s role on PP1, is worth keeping an eye on against the Canadiens on New Year’s Day and the Devils next Sunday.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, BUF | 20% Yahoo
It’s not clear how much time, if any, Alex Lyon will miss in Buffalo, but if the Sabres give him a few games to get healthy, expect Luukkonen to take over the starter’s net. While the team isn’t generating a ton of offense on its nine-game streak, the defense has been really solid. So that should give UPL the support he needs to extend this streak. He is coming off two of his strongest games this season, saving a combined four goals above expected against the Devils and Bruins.
The Lightning are a contender to watch, especially on this California swing. The Kings may have Darcy Kuemper back, but they don’t have the offensive juice to match the Lightning. The Ducks and Sharks, on the other hand, have been a bit leakier in net lately. So it’s a good opportunity for Tampa Bay to play to its offensive strengths. Goncalves is currently slotted in a very favorable position alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
Blake Coleman, C/LW/RW, CGY | 34% Yahoo
Coleman’s scoring is streaky and tough to count on, but he brings a lot more to the table, between his shot volume and physicality. Pair that with the Flames’ upcoming slate, which includes the Kraken, Bruins, and Penguins, who are all bottom-10 teams in goals against in December, and there is potential for him to chip in more next week.
Mikael Granlund, C/LW/RW, ANA | 31% Yahoo
After the Ducks’ top line of Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson, and Granlund was on the ice for three goals against the Sharks on Monday night, the coaches made changes for the third period. Cutter Gauthier jumped up in Kreider’s place, and the new-look combo tilted the ice in limited ice time and combined for a goal. So keep an eye on whether this trio gets another look — that could make a versatile forward like Granlund gain more offensive value.
Claude Giroux, LW/RW, OTT | 19% Yahoo
Fabian Zetterlund has some fantasy value thanks to his role on the Senators’ top line with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. But the third line is worth keeping an eye on, with a healthy Shane Pinto back in the fold. The trio of Michael Amadio, Giroux, and Pinto outscored opponents 12-6, while earning 68 percent of the xG share in tough minutes before Pinto was sidelined. Giroux was already on an offensive roll before the center rejoined the team, with two goals and six assists in his past five games, so it’ll be interesting to see if these three can find that chemistry again. The Senators have big Atlantic Division matchups on light nights next week.
Sean Durzi, D, UTA | 12% Yahoo
The Mammoth, once again, have one of the best schedules from a fantasy context. The team will be in action four times next week, all on light nights. And their slate of opponents only adds to that schedule strength. The Senators have to lean on their No. 2 and 3 goalies while Linus Ullmark is out, the Blues have had their own goalie issues, and the Blue Jackets game is on the second half of a back-to-back. So that could open the door to someone like Durzi picking up a few extra points — he has been a pretty consistent source of shot volume and assists lately.
Igor Chernyshov, LW, SJS | 6% Yahoo
Just when it seemed like the Sharks hit a wall with three straight losses they reeled us all back in with two exciting wins. Macklin Celebrini has been at the heart of San Jose’s surprising success this year, with an impressive 60 points — good for third in the league. So the best move is looking at who is skating on his wings — and on the right, it’s rookie Chernyshov. In 77 minutes together, the duo has earned a 57 percent xG rate, while outscoring opponents 10-6. Chernyshov already has two goals and four points in six games, so if he can prove that he belongs at the top of the Sharks’ lineup, there is long-term potential here.
Stefan Noesen, LW/RW, NJD | 1% Yahoo
The Devils’ power play wasn’t nearly as efficient without Jack Hughes, which exposed the team’s scoring depth issues at even strength. The hope now for New Jersey is that the return of Hughes will help get the offense back on track. Noesen is a pretty low-risk option to pick up on a lighter night, thanks to his current role on the top power play unit. The Devils are in action twice this weekend, against teams dealing with key injuries. Saturday’s opponent, the Mammoth, is without their No.1 goalie, while the Canes are down Jaccob Slavin.
