Four CFP quarterfinal X-factors, from Miami's ground game to Georgia's deep throws
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Ralph D. Russo
The elite level of competition on display at the Cotton, Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls means even one weak spot could be the difference.
No matter which conference a school plays in or how its schedule broke, this can be said of every team still alive in the College Football Playoff: Rarely if ever has it played an opponent as good as the one it will face this week in the quarterfinals.
This is all good-on-good now. The elite level of competition on display at the Cotton, Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls can muddle the accuracy of statistical assessments. But we gave it a shot anyway.
Here is one aspect of each matchup that could decide which teams move on to college football’s final four.
Cotton Bowl: Miami’s breakthrough on big runs
Miami beat Texas A&M in the first round because it did something it hasn’t done much of this season. The Hurricanes had two runs of more than 20 yards and another five of at least 10 yards. Before their trip to Kyle Field, they had just seven runs of 20 or more yards all season. Even with last week’s breakout game by Mark Fletcher (17 carries for 172 yards), the Miami offense ranks 110th in the Football Bowl Subdivision in gains of 20-plus on the ground.
Allowing explosive runs had been a problem all season for Texas A&M, and Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson found ways to exploit the weakness. Ohio State has no such issue.
The Buckeyes have allowed only 31 runs of at least 10 yards this year, sixth fewest in the nation. Only three runs this season against the Buckeyes have gone more than 30 yards, and zero have gone for 40 or more.
The simplest way to explain what makes All-America safety Caleb Downs, linebackers Arvell Resse and Sonny Styles and the Silver Bullets so good: They don’t miss tackles. Ohio State’s missed tackle rate against the run (3.6 percent) ranks No. 2 in the nation, according to College Football Graphs. Meanwhile, Miami runners don’t force many missed tackles. The Hurricanes’ missed tackle rate on offense (5.3 percent) ranks 122nd.
Miami also ranks 111th in yards before contact per rush at 1.61.
The regular season’s struggles seemed to be part scheme, part personnel. The Hurricanes really like to run between the tackles — between the guards, even — and have had a difficult time stretching defenses sideline-to-sideline to create space in the middle of the field. In addition, injuries scrambled their running back rotation for much of the regular season.
Dawson found solutions late in the season and against Texas A&M by emphasizing getting fabulous freshman receiver Malachi Toney involved in the offense, even if some of the gadgets themselves didn’t work out too well against the Aggies.
Replicating those results against the most talented defense in the country is probably too much to expect from Miami, but the blueprint for an upset has to include popping a few long runs.
Orange Bowl: Oregon, Texas Tech and the danger zone
The Red Raiders have crushed just about everyone in their path on the way to the Orange Bowl, leading the country in scoring margin at 29.2 points per game. But they have struggled converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
Overall, Texas Tech ranks 96th in the country in touchdown percentage in the red zone at 56.2 percent, according to cfbstats.com — for reference, 70 percent or above would rank in the top 25 nationally. Of the other quarterfinalists, only Ole Miss (58th) ranks outside the top 35 in red zone touchdown percentage. The Rebels have scored touchdowns on 62.5 percent of their red zone trips.
Not surprisingly, those issues have been most pronounced against Texas Tech’s best opposition. In five games against teams with winning records, the Red Raiders have scored touchdowns on only eight of their 25 red zone trips (32 percent).
Texas Tech beat Big 12 rival BYU twice by a combined score of 63-14, but in both games the Cougars were able to hang around into the second half because the Red Raiders had to settle for field goals: four in the red zone in game one in Lubbock and three more in the Big 12 title game.
Behren Morton’s red zone completion percentage of 53.2 is the lowest among quarterfinal quarterbacks by more than five percentage points. Texas Tech’s 2.82 yards per rush in the red zone is second-worst average among the remaining CFP teams, ahead of only Alabama (2.63).
Against an Oregon team that averages 39.2 points per game, with a potential high first-round draft pick at quarterback in Dante Moore, Tech’s red zone problems seem destined to be its undoing. Too many 3s, not enough 7s. Right?
Well, maybe not. The Ducks’ defense ranks 120th in the nation in keeping teams out of the end zone on trips into the red zone. The trick is actually getting inside the 20-yard line. Oregon has allowed touchdowns on 21 of 30 opponent red zone trips (71 percent), but those 30 red zone trips are tied for the ninth-fewest in the FBS.
Another note that should buoy Texas Tech hopes: The Ducks have faced three defenses ranked in the top 20 in yards per play this season (Indiana, Iowa and Washington) and scored only four offensive touchdowns in those games.
Rose Bowl: Alabama under pressure
Ohio State has allowed 11 sacks in 13 games; five came in the Big Ten Championship Game against Indiana. Oregon has allowed 14 sacks in its 13 games; Indiana had six of those at Autzen Stadium in October.
The Hoosiers average three sacks per game, sixth in the nation, with linebackers Rolijah Hardy, Isaiah Jones and Aiden Fisher combining for 17.5 sacks. They also rank third in pressure rate (41.2 percent) and eighth in sack rate (9.3 percent) and do it with minimal blitzing. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines’ unit ranks 106th in the country in blitz rate (21.8 percent).
Alabama doesn’t lack for raw material on its offensive line. Left tackle Kadyn Proctor has all the makings of a first-round draft pick. There are former blue-chip recruits everywhere. But Kalen DeBoer and his staff spent a lot of the season tinkering with different combinations, ultimately landing on a lineup with freshman Michael Carroll at right tackle.
Overall, Alabama isn’t a terrible pass blocking team. The Tide are allowing two sacks per game (89th in the country) and, according to TruMedia, rank 49th in pressure rate allowed (29.6 percent) and 62nd in sack rate allowed (5.6 percent). Oklahoma got to Simpson four times in Alabama’s first-round victory in Norman.
The more serious issue is the running game. Alabama averages 3.43 yards per carry, good for 125th in the nation right between Colorado and Syracuse. Getting that fixed against an Indiana defense that ranks among the best in the country at stopping the run seems unlikely.
The lack of a running game makes staying on schedule difficult for the Crimson Tide, which then gives opposing coordinators the opportunity to get into their pressure packages more freely. Simpson ranks 48th in passer efficiency rating (107.5) when pressured and 81st when blitzed (133.6).
Protecting Simpson has become even more challenging throughout the season as back issues have seemingly limited his mobility. Saying the key to any game is protecting the quarterback is obvious, but Alabama’s offense is such a one-trick pony that it will likely have no choice but to put the game on Simpson’s right arm.
How Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb keeps Simpson upright likely will determine whether the Tide can beat the No. 1 team in the country.
Sugar Bowl: Will Ole Miss avoid getting burned?
That cliche about the quarterback being a point guard, distributing to his playmakers? That’s Georgia’s Gunner Stockton.
According to Pro Football Focus, Stockton’s 111 pass attempts that don’t cross the line of scrimmage are the third most in the country. Zachariah Branch is Stockton’s top target, with 73 catches for 744 yards. Forty-one of Branch’s receptions were behind the line of scrimmage.
Georgia averages 4.83 yards after the catch, eighth best in the nation. That type of offense puts a ton of pressure on defensive backs and linebackers to tackle in space.
Notably, offenses tend to attack the Ole Miss defense this way: The average depth of target against the Rebels is 8.95 yards, 106th in the nation, and they allow 3.64 yards after the catch, which ranks 79th in the country.
Defensive backs Chris Graves and Sage Ryan have been shaky tacklers, with above 20 percent miss rates, according to PFF.
Stockton is not going to take many deep shots, especially in the middle of the field. But here’s the twist: In the first meeting between the teams, a 43-35 come-from-behind victory by Georgia, Stockton had one of his best games of the season when he did go downfield, going 3-of-5 for 98 yards on passes that went more than 15 yards downfield.
It’s safe to assume Georgia will have success moving the ball against Ole Miss’ defense. What will likely determine whether Georgia pushes 40 points or can be kept within range for an upset bid is the Rebels’ ability to avoid getting burned on the rare occasions Bulldogs offensive coordinator Mike Bobo does open it up for Stockton.