As the deadline that Lebanon’s government set for disarming Hezbollah in the south of the country approaches, the group insists it won’t give up its weapons.

The Lebanese cabinet tasked the military in August with formulating a plan to remove Hezbollah’s arms by the end of 2025 in accordance with a plan put forward by the United States.

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Hezbollah was quick to reject the decree, calling it a “grave sin” and promising to treat it “as if it does not exist”.

In September, the Lebanese military presented a phased approach to disarming Hezbollah, starting with the south of the country up to the Litani River, 28km (17 miles) from the Israeli border and moving northwards to the capital, Beirut, and subsequently nationwide.

Thursday marks the deadline of the completion of the first stage. But a defiant Hezbollah has dismissed the efforts to disarm it as a US-Israeli plan demanded at a time when Israel is conducting daily air strikes on Lebanon.

“To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and America is imposing its will on Lebanon, stripping it of its power, means that you are not working in Lebanon’s interest but rather in the interest of what Israel wants,” Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said this week.

Israeli strikes

While the debate inside Lebanon rages around the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, Israeli attacks against the country have not relented.

On Wednesday, Israeli forces bombed several villages in southern Lebanon and blew up the last undamaged home in the border town of Marwahin, according to the official National News Agency.

Israeli strikes have not been confined to south of the Litani River. In November, Israel bombed Beirut and killed Hezbollah’s top commander, Haytham Tabtabai.

Last week, an Israeli attack killed three people, including a Lebanese army officer, in the coastal city of Sidon, north of the Litani.

Beyond the air strikes and near constant violations of Lebanon’s airspace with surveillance drones, whose buzz can often be heard in Beirut, Israel continues to occupy five points inside Lebanon.

Israel has also been preventing the rebuilding of the villages it all but wiped out in last year’s war, regularly carrying out attacks against the construction sector in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah says that when Israel stops its attacks, it’s ready to discuss a national defence strategy for Lebanon that would incorporate the group’s weapons.

The arguments

Opponents of Hezbollah argue that the group has not been able to deter Israeli attacks, so its weapons only invite further strikes without providing meaningful defence.

They also say the Shia Muslim party should not be able to make war and peace decisions on its own for the entire multireligious country and that meaningful state-building cannot occur with an independent armed force that does not answer to the government.

Critics also underscore Hezbollah’s alliance with Iran, accusing the group of serving as a tool for Tehran’s “axis of resistance” rather than advancing Lebanon’s interests.

Hezbollah, however, says without its resistance, Israel could occupy and build settlements in southern Lebanon with the ill-equipped Lebanese military unable to put up a fight.

The United States, Israel’s closest ally, is the main weapons provider to the Lebanese army. In September, US special envoy Tom Barrack admitted that Washington doesn’t support the Lebanese armed forces to confront Israel.

“We don’t want to arm them … so they can fight Israel. I don’t think so,” Barrack said. “So you’re arming them so they can fight their own people, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is our enemy. Iran is our enemy.”

Hezbollah also calls Israel an expansionist entity that does not need an excuse to attack Lebanon, pointing to the situation in Syria, where Israeli forces have been expanding their occupation beyond the Golan Heights without any provocation.

Hezbollah supporters note that Israeli violations against Lebanon date back to 1948 because of state neglect in the south – long before the group was founded in 1982.

The history

Founded during the Lebanese Civil War and the Israeli invasion of the country with the help of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah rose over the past decades from a ragtag militia to a regional power.

Using guerrilla warfare tactics, it forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000 in what was seen as a rare military win for an Arab side in the history of the conflict.

It then fought Israel to a deadlock in an all-out war in 2006, thwarting the Israeli goals of dismantling or disarming the group.

In subsequent years, Hezbollah intervened in Syria’s war, helping the Syrian government of former President Bashar al-Assad recapture large parts of the country from opposition fighters.

It also sent military advisers to help Iran-backed groups in Iraq in the fight against ISIL (ISIS).

Domestically, Hezbollah has yielded great influence over the Lebanese government since 2006, managed to maintain a strong parliamentary bloc with its allies and elevate individuals close to the group into key positions.

But it all came crashing down for Hezbollah last year. The group opened a “support front” to back Hamas after the outbreak of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

For months, the violence was largely confined to the Lebanon-Israel border region. However, in September 2024, Israel launched an offensive across the country, dealing painful blows to Hezbollah.

Israeli forces killed most of the group’s top political and military leaders, including its chief Hassan Nasrallah, who had attained iconic status for Hezbollah’s followers after the 2000 victory and 2006 war.

The conflict also saw Israel systematically destroy border towns, forcing long-term depopulation of the area, a campaign some analysts likened to ethnic cleansing.

The war killed thousands of people and displaced millions who spent more than two months away from their homes, many taking shelter in schools and other public buildings.

The war ended with a ceasefire that Israel has disregarded and Hezbollah has abided by with the exception of a single attack on an Israeli position in December 2024.

The perils

Hezbollah – beleaguered, bleeding domestic allies and facing a de facto unilateral ceasefire and continuing Israeli strikes – now finds itself at a crossroads.

Lebanese officials say the army is making progress in completing the first phase of the disarmament plan. But Hezbollah says it won’t surrender its weapons – or the fight against Israeli occupation.

But the threat of another Israeli war looms large over the country. US President Donald Trump did not rule out renewing the conflict when asked about it on Monday.

“We’ll see about it,” Trump said in a joint appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida.

“The Lebanese government is at a little bit of a disadvantage, if you think of it, with Hezbollah. But Hezbollah has been behaving badly, so we’ll see what happens.”

Inside Lebanon, efforts to disarm Hezbollah by force could lead to civil conflict. Despite the Israeli hits, Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters and retains a considerable arsenal.

Clashes between the state and Hezbollah would be catastrophic for Lebanon. An internal conflict could also see officers and commanders within the military who may be sympathetic to Hezbollah refuse to “fight their own people”.

Bottom line, Lebanon and Hezbollah sit at a critical juncture with emerging regional domination by Israel casting a painful shadow over the country and no easy solution to the crisis.