‘High probability of failure’: Former top official’s dire AUKUS warning
The shambolic state of the UK’s submarine service could destroy Australia’s plan to build a fleet of AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, a retired rear admiral warns.
Plans to develop a new class of nuclear-powered submarine for Australia and the United Kingdom under the AUKUS pact are likely to collapse because of the shambolic state of the UK’s submarine service, a former top British defence official has warned.
Under the “optimal pathway” for AUKUS announced by the Albanese government in March 2023, the British and Australian navies would introduce a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines known as the SSN-AUKUS from the late 2030s, with at least five to be built in South Australia.
Retired rear admiral Philip Mathias, a former director of nuclear policy with the UK Ministry of Defence, said he feared Australians were not adequately informed about how the troubles plaguing the British navy could sink both nations’ AUKUS ambitions.
The new SSN-AUKUS class of submarine is set to replace Britain’s Astute-class attack submarines.Credit: Royal Navy
Mathias said British politicians had enthusiastically embraced the industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS and wanted to expand the UK’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
“But policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines. People do that and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience,” Mathias, an ex-nuclear submarine commanding officer, told this masthead.
“Whilst the United States may sell some [nuclear-powered submarines] to Australia, there is a high probability that the UK element of AUKUS will fail, making the international row in 2021 over the cancellation of the plan for Australia to build French-designed submarines look like a non-event.”
Mathias, who led a 2010 review of the UK Trident nuclear-weapons system, said: “It is clear that Australia has shown a great deal of naivety and did not conduct sufficient due diligence on the parlous state of the UK’s nuclear submarine program before signing up to AUKUS – and parting with billions of dollars, which it has already started to do.
“In the last four years there have been plenty of announcements and political grandstanding, plus numerous international visits, forums and discussions but very little substantive progress on actually developing the industrial base needed to build and support nuclear-powered submarines.”
The US is slated to sell Australia three second-hand Virginia-class submarines under the AUKUS pact, while the UK and Australia are to separately develop the SSN-AUKUS, a replacement for the British navy’s retiring Astute-class nuclear-powered submarine.
