Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are primed to win their first AFC South title since 2022. By defeating the Indianapolis Colts 23-17 and pushing their record to 12-4 on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Jaguars maintained their one-game lead over the Houston Texans (11-5) and now only need to beat the lowly Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to lock up the division crown.

If they lose to Tennessee, however, a Texans win over the Colts in Week 18 would make the Texans the division winners for a third straight season, so there will be plenty on the line next week.

As for this week, the Jaguars rode an excellent performance by their defense to victory over Indianapolis. The Jaguars sacked Philip Rivers twice, intercepted him once and limited the Colts to 204 yards of offense and just 4.1 yards per play.

On offense, Lawrence was a little uneven through the air, though he racked up 263 yards on 23-of-37 passing, but the performance also included one bad end-zone interception and a couple of other near-picks. But Lawrence more than made up for any deficiencies as a passer Sunday with his legs, rushing for 26 yards and both of the Jaguars’ touchdowns.

Running back Travis Etienne chipped in 76 yards on 17 carries, while Parker Washington finished with a game-high eight receptions for 115 yards.

While it would be a long shot, the Jaguars still have a chance at winning the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they would need to win and have both the 13-win Broncos and Patriots lose next week.

As for the Colts, who lost their sixth straight game Sunday and fell to 8-8, their season effectively ended Saturday when the Texans officially eliminated them from playoff contention by beating the Los Angeles Chargers.

It’s been an incredible collapse for the Colts, who started the season 7-1. Injuries, including an Achilles tear for starting quarterback Daniel Jones in Week 14, can certainly be blamed, but their fall from AFC contenders to out of the playoffs has been nonetheless stunning.

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only five teams had won seven of their first eight games and missed the playoffs. The Colts became the sixth. The Colts’ playoff odds were as high as 98 percent in Week 10, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, and they were in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Now, the Colts are left on the outside looking in for the fifth straight season.

Making matters worse, they traded their 2026 first-round pick to the New York Jets at the trade deadline for cornerback Sauce Gardner. That means that all this losing won’t even benefit them come April’s NFL Draft. Needless to say, it’s been a tough season in Indianapolis.

Lawrence does just enough

Lawrence had been on fire in his last four starts entering Sunday. The 2021 No. 1 pick had racked up 14 total touchdowns with zero turnovers during that span, but he regressed a bit against the Colts. Lawrence’s brutal interception in the end zone at the end of the second quarter left Jacksonville trailing 10-7 at halftime.