Keys to a Bears playoff run? Goal-to-go challenges? Mailbag plus Week 18 picks
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Kevin Fishbain
Being able to sustain long drives and punish an opposing defense will be key for the Bears to make a run in the playoffs.
Ben Johnson accomplished something in three years with the Detroit Lions that no one had done with the Chicago Bears in nearly half a century: run a top-five offense.
The Lions finished second, third and fourth in total yards in Johnson’s three seasons running the offense. You have to go back to 1977 to find the last Bears team to finish in the top five in total offense. That team, led by MVP Walter Payton, finished third … in a 28-team league and a 14-game season.
Entering Week 18, the Bears are third in total offense, averaging 375.8 yards per game.
We’ll have a lot of statistical milestones to reflect on when the season ends, but the most obvious example of Johnson’s impact is right there. For more context, the Bears haven’t even been better than 15th in total offense since 2013. One season with Johnson, and they’re eyeing a top-five finish.
Now, on to your questions.
What do the Bears need to go right to make a run in the playoffs? — John R.
It can be hard to find common threads when the team has had so many wacky, late-game finishes. And one of them even included stats that usually translate to a win. They allowed zero sacks and threw zero interceptions while scoring 38 points in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Since 2000, teams are 189-4 with those numbers, with the Bears being loss No. 4.
It’s no surprise, though, that taking the ball away has been a good recipe. The Bears are 9-0 in games with at least two takeaways. That helps mitigate a defense that is 29th in yards per play allowed.
Takeaways can be fickle, though. You can’t rely on them. What the Bears can rely on is their run game, and that’s what carried them on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, their most complete win of the season. Being able to sustain long drives and punish an opposing defense will be a key.
What they used to rely on was their third-down defense, which has fallen to 19th in the league. The Bears have only one quarterback hit in four of their past five games. To make a run, they’ll need Dennis Allen’s exotic looks and pressure packages to have the success they had earlier in the season.
The one thing this team does have is the confidence that, if it’s down to the wire, it has the experience, coaches and players to come through. That doesn’t mean the Bears will win every tight playoff game, but they won’t be fazed in crunch time.
To make a playoff run, the Bears will need Dennis Allen’s exotic looks and pressure packages to have the success they had earlier in the season. (Denny Medley / Imagn Images)
Which Bears would benefit most from a reduced snap count in Week 18? Would the Bears rest certain players at positions where they trust their depth? — Trevor N.
It doesn’t seem to be in line with Johnson’s process to rest anybody, but then again, if the game is in hand — or if the scoreboard watchers see the Washington Commanders putting the Eagles away — it might be prudent to take a few guys off the field.
Veterans such as Joe Thuney, Grady Jarrett and Kevin Byard come to mind first, and then anyone who has dealt with injuries this season — Jaylon Johnson, T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds and Luther Burden would be in that category.
The run game has become the cornerstone for the Bears offense, but they went away from it against the 49ers. The Bears used 42 pass plays versus 22 runs (49ers were 33 pass-34 run). I’m curious about that balance: Was that just how the game played out? Did they scout something about the 49ers defense that led them to go pass-heavy? — Tim K.
Johnson was asked specifically about the first-half discrepancy, when the Bears had 12 passes and seven runs. Based on how the first half went, he wasn’t bothered by that ratio.
“My guess is we probably had less than 20 plays in the first half, and a handful of those would have been second-and-longs and third downs,” he said. “And so if you take those out, we’re probably about 50/50 run to pass, which is probably what we typically average.”
As for the overall numbers, I think it speaks to your point about the 49ers’ defense. Johnson wants the Bears to be a team that can morph its style week to week. In this game, the matchup against a 49ers team that was last in the NFL in sack rate meant more time for Williams in the pocket, and we saw him take advantage. The 49ers have been better against the run in terms of yards per play allowed than the pass.
However, Johnson did seem disappointed in his own play calling on the Bears’ field goal drive, when he called three passes from the 10-yard line.
“I wasn’t very happy with how I called that,” he said.
Happy New Year to you and your family. What is the Bears success rate of scoring a TD versus a FG or turnover on downs when they get inside the 10-yard line this year? It seems like we have consistently had issues in that part of the field no matter what point in the game it is. Personally, I think Ben’s play calling in that deep red zone area is questionable at best, and we hear him blaming himself pretty often for bad decisions in that area. — Bob A.
Good segue into this question from Bob. The Bears are 19th in the NFL in goal-to-go percentage. They’ve converted 72.4 percent of goal-to-go situations into touchdowns. Though Johnson has been self-critical in those situations, the Lions were second in goal-to-go touchdown rate in 2022 and 2024 with him calling plays.
The Bears have scored points on 86.2 percent of goal-to-go drives, which ranks 27th. The loss to the 49ers was the second time the Bears ended a game at the goal line — the other was the loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Coaches and players talk about how it gets tougher the closer you get to the goal line because everything is condensed and the back line serves as a 12th defender. It’s surprising the Bears haven’t leaned on the run more often in these setups, but then again, that’s when defenses load the box.
Johnson has acknowledged his responsibility in a couple of those empty drives. But it’s hard to pin a lot on him when he’s got a track record of being very good near the goal line. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on in the playoffs. It is worth noting that the Bears’ improved offense this season has meant more goal-to-go drives — 29 in total, tied for the fourth most for the franchise this century (per TruMedia).
Bears-Lions fun facts
• The Bears lead the all-time series 105-81-5. The Lions are 16-9 in the series since 2013.
• Sunday’s game will be the seventh time the Bears and Lions have met in a season finale since 1984, and first since 2015.
• The Bears have not won a season finale at home since 2007. They’re on a four-game losing streak when ending the regular season at Soldier Field.
• Jared Goff is 2-3 all-time at Soldier Field, including 1-2 in the winter. He had his second-best game against the Bears out of 12 in December 2024 in Chicago (137.0 rating).
• A win would give the Bears their ninth season all-time with at least 12 wins.
Game picks: Bears (-3) vs. Lions, 3:25 p.m. (CT) on Fox
Kevin Fishbain: Bears 26, Lions 24
(12-4 straight up, 8-8 against the spread)
Goff should be able to find some success against this Bears defense for a while, but at some point, the team that has seeding at stake versus the team that had a disappointing season becomes a factor. Johnson will attack a depleted Lions defense, and the home crowd could help push the Bears past the finish line for a 7-1 home record.
Dan Wiederer: Bears 27, Lions 23
(10-6, 10-6)
It’s an odd thing to say, what with the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs still not fully secured. But this feels like the lowest-stakes, lowest-buzz game the Bears have played in some time. Still, no one knows the pride of the Lions better than Johnson, who faces the challenge of getting his team fully locked in and ready for a street fight against a reeling team that is eliminated from playoff contention. The Bears have been terrific all season at establishing and maintaining purpose and will understand what’s needed for this finale. A chance for a seventh consecutive victory at Soldier Field is no small deal, either.
Dan Pompei: Bears 28, Lions 24
(12-4, 11-5)
The Bears have motivation to win this game with the No. 2 playoff seed still undecided, and the game’s result is likely to reflect that. The Bears should expect extra effort from the Lions as always, but these Lions aren’t the Lions they were supposed to be. They aren’t clicking and have lost three straight and seven of 11. The Bears have been one of the better rushing teams in the league, and the Lions have struggled to stop the run when they’ve needed to. That could be a deciding factor.
Jon Greenberg: Bears 27, Lions 17
(10-6, 7-9)
Dan Campbell isn’t coming to Chicago to lay down for his buddy, but the Lions are flagging down the stretch. I have no doubt Johnson will have this team raring to go after last week’s loss in San Francisco, and Chicago will start 2026 off with a win in front of a ravenous home crowd.
The Lions are saying the right things — about ending the year on a high note, finishing with a winning record, all that jazz — but this feels like a team that’s ready for the offseason. The letdown on Christmas eliminated the team from playoff contention, in one of the sloppiest efforts of the Campbell era. Though it sounds like their available starters will play, I don’t see it being enough to beat a Bears team rounding into form ahead of the playoffs.
