Labour could slump to FOURTH in Scottish elections next year as poll finds SNP are on course for a fifth term in power
A Holyrood seat projection, based on a Find Out Now survey, found the SNPare on course for 59 seats - six short of the 65 needed for a majority.
By GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
Published: 12:21 GMT, 30 December 2025 | Updated: 15:32 GMT, 30 December 2025
Sir Keir Starmer's woes look set to deepen after a poll showed Labour could slump to fourth in next year's Scottish Parliament elections.
A Holyrood seat projection, based on a Find Out Now survey, found the SNP are on course for 59 seats - six short of the 65 needed for a majority.
But they could be set for a fifth consecutive term in power with the Scottish Greens, who also support Scottish independence, projected to have 13 MSPs.
The seat projection, by polling expert Professor John Curtice, showed Reform UK winning 25 seats as Nigel Farage's party enjoy a surge in support in Scotland.
Both Labour and the Tories were tied in joint-fourth place with 12 MSPs each at Edinburgh, according to the research.
There is a growing expectation that a disastrous result for Labour in Scotland, as well as in elections in England and Wales in May, will prompt an effort to oust Sir Keir among Labour MPs.
The Prime Minister is already battling intense speculation over his future in Downing Street following Labour's chaotic first 18 months in power at Westminster.
Some of Labour's MPs in Scotland have even warned Sir Keir they could lead a bid to topple him before May, as they fear being 'slaughtered' at the Holyrood contests.
There is a growing expectation that a disastrous result for Labour in Scotland, as well as in elections in England and Wales in May, will prompt an effort to oust Sir Keir Starmer
At the previous Scottish Parliament elections, held in 2021, the SNP won 64 seats, while the Tories won 31 seats and Labour won 22 seats.
Although the SNP were one short of a majority, they entered a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens.
That deal later collapsed but the SNP have continued to govern as a minority administration.
Reform currently have one seat at Holyrood following the defection of former Tory MSP Graham Simpson in August.
The Find Out Now poll of 1,000 Scottish voters, conducted on behalf of The National newspaper, was carried out between 11 to 19 December.