With the United States in debt to the tune of $38 trillion, President Trump has decided now is the time for the White House to also “run” another country. While the U.S. will not incur the costs needed to keep Venezuela’s economy moving, the action taken over the weekend will no doubt come with price tags attached.

This, says UBS, will be a key concern for investors evaluating the risk premium for U.S. debt going into 2026. America’s fiscal trajectory, namely its debt burden, has been a growing concern for the likes of JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as droves of economists and Wall Street analysts.

These concerns are made sharper by recent changes to Trump’s tariff policies, some of which he has recently delayed. In the face of increased outlays, the Oval Office is also reducing its income. Last week the White House ordered the delay to an increase in tariff rates for upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities that was set to take place on Jan. 1, 2026. It was pushed back by a year.

A seeming falter on tariffs—an unusual but significant policy in helping rebalance America’s books—is likely to cause investors to question how reliable the income stream will be. Indeed, cash is needed all the more at the outset of a new geopolitical upheaval.

At UBS this morning, chief economist Paul Donovan highlighted that the delay to new tariffs comes as the latest political lightning rod—affordability—continues to concern the electorate. Speaking in an audio note to clients, he added: “Reducing tariffs is a fiscal stimulus; delaying tariffs is a delayed fiscal tightening in the States, which has some marginal growth implications. It’s also important in its implications for the size of the U.S. fiscal deficit.”

A fiscal deficit is the shortfall between a government’s spending and its revenue. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, as of November, the government’s cumulative deficit for the fiscal year 2026 was already $439 billion (it ends on the final day of September). Any deficits the government incurs year to year are added to the national debt, which currently exceeds $38.5 trillion.

“This may also be a consideration from the recent U.S. action in Venezuela,” Donovan said. “While it is not clear what, if anything, is meant by statements that the U.S. will ‘run Venezuela,’ military adventures cost money. That might be the most significant consequence of the weekend’s activities: Social media warriors may get excited about other geopolitical threats, but these are likely to be less of a focus in financial markets.”