NBA Rewind: Are the Thunder struggling, or are the Spurs just that good?
Plus, who's hot (Keyonte George) and not (Rockets' defense) around the league this week.
Every Monday, we catch you up on the happenings in the NBA. This week, the big story is what the San Antonio Spurs have done to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the past two weeks. The Thunder now look somewhat vulnerable after previously looking invincible. Should we reconsider the Spurs’ championship odds? Also, the Los Angeles Lakers appear to have some internal doubt and turmoil. How do they rally to right the ship? Normally, we start with the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox.
Instead, we’re going to start with the Spurs shocking the world and beating the Thunder three times in 12 days. But should it be a shock now? Let’s rewind!
The Big Story: The Spurs are contenders?
Before the Spurs faced the Thunder in the NBA Cup semifinals on Dec. 13, OKC was on pace to go 78-4. That would have shattered the record for wins in a season (73) by five. The Thunder became the second team in league history to start 24-1 and had everybody wondering just how dominant the defending champs’ season could be. Especially when you factor in that their 17.48 margin of victory was obliterating the record they set last season (12.87).
Since then, the Spurs have beaten the Thunder three times and knocked OKC down to “only” a pace of 68-14 (the same record as last year’s championship season) and a victory margin of 13.94. The Spurs have brought the Thunder back down to earth, in other words, and in the process made the rest of the league wonder if San Antonio might factor into the 2026 title picture. Prior to the second half of December, the Thunder were the heavy favorites, with teams like the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets and New York Knicks behind them. Now?
The Spurs went from the 11th-best title odds going into the season at plus-2200 to currently the fourth-best title odds at plus-1200 (according to BetMGM). They’ve even moved ahead of Houston on the board. The Spurs are outperforming all expectations, which is doubly impressive considering Victor Wembanyama missed 12 of their 31 games so far. Also, it’s worth acknowledging that I started writing this section before San Antonio lost at home to the Utah Jazz on Saturday night. But the optimism surrounding this team remains justifiably high.
• The Spurs have the second-best record in the West at 23-8.
• They have the third-best winning percentage (.742), behind OKC and the Detroit Pistons.
• They have the fifth-best offensive rating, fifth-best defensive rating and sixth-best net rating.
• With Wemby on the court, they have a better defensive rating (101.7) than the Thunder (104.6). By a lot.
• They’ve done all of this with the sixth-toughest schedule and the most unlucky schedule with opponents being healthy.
The Spurs aren’t just beating up on bad opponents, even though they’re 14-1 against below .500 teams. They have also beaten the best in the NBA, with wins over OKC (three), Houston, Denver, the Orlando Magic and the Lakers. They’re 9-7 against teams with a .500 record or better. Considering the age of this team and the profile on offense and defense, I decided to compare them to the Thunder team we saw in 2023-24.
That OKC team won 57 games after going 40-42 without making the playoffs the previous season. Those Thunder were great on both ends of the floor. They were dominant. They were young. The through line between their two rosters is Lindy Waters III, who was on OKC then and is on San Antonio now. Check out how close this comparison is:
That Thunder team got beat in the second round of the playoffs before coming back with a vengeance in 2024-25 to win the championship. There’s a lot of this season left, but the Spurs are playing with a moxie that changes their outlook. If you can assume Wemby is going to be healthy the rest of the way, he has an impact on the floor like few superstars in today’s league. He’s also clearly not scared of any of these matchups and has no problem being vocal in his philosophical approach to assessing the style of basketball being played. He’s almost intentionally dismissive of anything that isn’t “pure” basketball.
It’s an open challenge to the best around the league that a straight-up game without trying to exploit loopholes in rules or officiating will not end well for them. That’s pretty bold for someone who turns 22 next week. Much like that Thunder team from a couple of years ago, the Spurs have interchangeable parts with great versatility throughout the roster. But remember, that was the Thunder before they acquired Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein — additions that catapulted them into a historic basketball stratosphere.
We didn’t expect San Antonio to take this leap yet. That was supposed to happen a year or two from now. But the Spurs are contenders right now. Maybe that’s not going to last. But maybe they’ll continue this and advance farther in the playoffs than expected. Their play of late forces us to consider that possibility. How could it not?
NBA Stock Report Extended
📈 LA Clippers (10-21). Don’t look now, but the Clippers have won four straight games! This season has been a disaster until now, but they’ve at least managed to rally in the past week and find a little bit of what made them a top-six team in the West last season. Their wins are legitimate, too. They’ve beaten the Lakers, Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers and Pistons in this streak. That’s a good week for anybody, let alone a team that has struggled as much as the Clippers. Both ends of the floor have been working superbly for them, but rediscovering their defensive identity has been the encouraging trend.
In their last four games, the Clippers have the NBA’s fourth-best defense. That’s a stark contrast from the 26th-ranked defense they showed in their first 27 games, when they were just 6-21. It’s also impressive when you remember that Ivica Zubac has missed three of these games with an ankle injury. The Clippers are blitzing opposing offenses and forcing the highest turnover rate in the league during this stretch. It doesn’t hurt that Kawhi Leonard went for 55 points on Sunday against Detroit. I don’t know if the Clippers are back, but at least they’re showing fight we didn’t see earlier this season.
📉 Lakers (20-10). JJ Redick does not seem jolly this holiday season. Not with the way the Lakers are playing and defending. Especially not with the way they’re defending. We know the trio of Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and LeBron James can score. But this team has the defensive resistance of a saloon door. The Lakers have lost four of their last seven and have been smoked in a few of those. Redick talked about how uncomfortable things were going to be in their next practice and film session after Houston embarrassed them on Christmas Day.
There are only five teams worse at defense than the Lakers: the Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Utah and Washington Wizards. That’s it. The Lakers are 27th in effective field-goal percentage allowed and tied for ninth in opponent turnover rate. Basically, if they don’t force a turnover on their defensive gambles, they’re giving up a bucket. They are one of the best teams at preventing a high free-throw rate. Why? Probably because they’re rarely in position to be close enough to foul their opponents. They can’t guard the perimeter at all, and that’s what Redick will have to try to solve on the fly. The Lakers will also be without Reaves for the next four weeks.
📈 Golden State Warriors (16-16). Things were looking pretty bleak for the Warriors last week when they lost three straight and nine of their last 13 to fall two games under .500. But to its credit, Golden State rallied with a great week, beating the Phoenix Suns, Orlando and the Dallas Mavericks at home before dropping a tough overtime game in Toronto. Things are not fixed, but the Warriors are getting back to homeostasis. Or so it appears. The important thing during this small stretch is that Steph Curry hasn’t had to carry the team. He hasn’t been anything special by his absurd standards.
We’re seeing Jimmy Butler score almost 20 points per game with incredible efficiency. We’re also seeing the role players like Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and rookie Will Richard step up on that end of the floor. Al Horford came back and had an immediate impact after a slow start and injuries. The Warriors are shooting abysmally from deep (32.2 percent) this past week, but they’re winning with defense, buckets in the paint and execution in tight games.
📉 Thunder (27-5). I jokingly put the Thunder into the trending down column after the Spurs snapped their 16-game winning streak. But Oklahoma City has actually been struggling the past two weeks. Most of that is thanks to the Spurs, as mentioned above. But the Thunder also lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Dec. 19, making them just 3-4 in their last seven games. That’s noteworthy.
The most confusing thing about this stretch is that it has come with OKC finally being healthy. That was the awesome thing about the 24-1 start. The Thunder hadn’t debuted their full starting lineup, which they intended to use to crush teams. The lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t dominating the way we expected. They’ve given up a defensive rating of 116.7 points per 100 possessions and are 1-4 with that starting lineup. Obviously, this is just a glitch in the matrix, but it’s still stunning to see.
📈 Keyonte George. Sometimes, a player is simply not performing despite looking good in so much of what they’re doing on the court. George has been that player for me since he was a point guard at Baylor. You’d watch him create a shot in college, and it looked good, along with the form. But the shot often didn’t fall (George made just 37.6 percent from the field for the Bears). The same thing happened in his first two seasons with the Utah Jazz. A lot of what he created, along with the shooting form, looked like good offense. But the shots didn’t fall (39.1 percent both seasons). Going into his third season, George needed to show marked improvement if he was going to be a valuable member of Utah’s core. Or just a member, period.
This season, we’re seeing much better results for George, especially over the last month. Over his last 18 games, George is averaging 25.7 points on 47.7/42.4/88.6 shooting splits. That’s good for a 63.9 percent true shooting rate. To put that into context, Curry had a 64.8 true shooting percentage during his dominant 2014-19 stretch. George is also giving the Jazz 6.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game during that span. His season averages are now up to 24.2, 6.8 and 4.2 with 45.0/36.7/90.4 shooting splits. Keyonte George has finally arrived.
📉 Houston’s defense. The Rockets’ identity is built on being stronger than most teams, more physical on the interior and the boards, and playing defense as well as pretty much everybody. But that hasn’t been the case for Houston over the last couple of weeks, when we’ve seen a massive drop-off in its defense. That trend is out of character for a team that was fifth in defense last season and ranked second in defense through its first 21 games. The Rockets have gone 3-4 in their last seven and have posted the 21st-ranked defense.
The only thing they’ve done well during this time is rebound. They’ve been one of the worst teams at forcing turnovers, keeping opponents off the free-throw line and, most importantly, preventing shots from going in. They’ll get back to Rockets basketball soon enough, and looked to get there with the Christmas Day win over the Lakers. But it’s alarming to see opponents score so easily against them.
📈 Boston Celtics (19-12). The Celtics are on fire, winning nine of their last 12. Yes, some of those have come against weak opponents. They beat the Indiana Pacers twice and the Wizards once during that stretch. But the Celtics are also more than holding their own against good opponents this season. Boston is 11-8 against teams with a .500 or better record. That’s tied with the Knicks for the most wins against non-losing teams so far. Boston’s offense is back to being a nightmare for opponents, and the Celtics are creeping up on the Knicks for second place in the East. No wonder Jayson Tatum wants to come back this season.
📉 Pacers (6-26). This was already a lost season for the Pacers, but they’ve now slid all the way down to 15th in the East. Indiana is on an eight-game losing streak, its second losing streak of at least eight games this season. The team is pretty difficult to watch because of injuries. The offense is putrid without Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin. The Pacers are last in offensive rating at 107.7 points per 100 possessions. They’re last in effective field-goal percentage at just barely 50 percent, and they’re the only team under a 55 percent true shooting percentage. If you doubted Haliburton’s stardom or effectiveness before, just go watch the Pacers for one half.
The Week Ahead: Giannis is back. What does that mean?
We are roughly five and a half weeks away from the 2026 NBA Trade Deadline. And while there will be plenty of deals regardless of whether a superstar gets moved, all eyes are on the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
On Saturday night, Giannis came back from a calf injury that raised concerns for him and his future with the Bucks the second it happened. Instantly, people wondered if that was the last game he’d ever play for the Bucks, and if he’d request his way to a different franchise.
On Dec. 18, Giannis spoke to the media and had some pretty uninspiring quotes about his situation. He made it clear he hadn’t personally requested a trade. He also said he couldn’t control what his agent talks to the Bucks about. He said he doesn’t work for his agent; his agent works for him. Confused? Yeah, same. It keeps sounding like Giannis would love for this decision to be taken out of his hands so he doesn’t have to be the bad guy. But he will have to be the bad guy on some level if his goal is, in fact, to find his way to a different team.
The Bucks went 2-6 in his absence and are just 3-11 when he doesn’t play this season. They’re 10-8 when he does play — still not exactly championship level. Here’s your reminder that the Bucks do not benefit from tanking, as they do not control their first-round pick in every upcoming draft from 2026 through 2030. They want to remain competitive, whether or not they keep Giannis.
Antetokounmpo returned Saturday with 29 points against the Chicago Bulls and called questions about whether he wants to remain with the Bucks “disrespectful.”
Giannis will be back to being in front of the media, with seven of Milwaukee’s next 10 games and 10 of its next 18 games being on the road before the Feb. 5 trade deadline. Will he request a trade before then?