NFL executives weigh in how Dante Moore, other QBs in CFP can boost their draft stock
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Jeff Howe
With the heightened intensity and competition of the new playoff format, NFL evaluators have a better chance than ever to grade QBs.
The remainder of the College Football Playoff will have unique ramifications on the upcoming NFL Draft class, with the three quarterbacks in contention to be first-round picks all still in the field and needing strong performances to distinguish themselves among team evaluators.
For the first time in five years, three quarterbacks in the tournament have a chance to become opening-round selections in the ensuing draft. And Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson have opportunities for extended auditions in the second year of the 12-team playoff format, as long as they can get through the quarterfinals this week.
“These are the top three quarterbacks — if you’re in that market, these are the guys,” said a team executive who was granted anonymity so he could speak openly. “How do they handle failure or adversity? How do they respond to something they haven’t seen before? Starting with the conference championships, these games are more key to the evaluations than anything else.”
To be clear, all three are underclassmen who still need to declare for the draft. They could opt to return to school, as Texas’ Arch Manning and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers have already announced. Both are expected to be in consideration for the top pick of 2027.
Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, is viewed as the safest of the three remaining candidates, and he’ll get his first postseason action Thursday in the Rose Bowl against Simpson and the Crimson Tide, who upset Oklahoma in the first round. Moore and Oregon already breezed past James Madison, but they’ll have a much more rigorous test Thursday in the Orange Bowl against Texas Tech. Miami’s Carson Beck is a mid- to late-round candidate who could desperately use a quality showing Thursday in the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State, but he isn’t expected to earn first-round consideration.
What more can Mendoza show?
Mendoza already solidified his standing as a first-rounder with an impressive victory against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, which was the exclamation point on the 22-year-old’s strong season. The 6-foot-5, 225-pounder won’t face as strong a defense against Alabama, but a victory would set up more difficult tests in subsequent rounds.
If Mendoza can run with more purpose in the playoffs, one high-ranking evaluator believed he’d be the draft’s QB1.
“He’s going to have the opportunity to do that because he’s going to keep playing in big moments,” the executive said.
Teams have been discussing Mendoza with the expectation that he’ll be in the 2026 draft. They’re also salivating over the possibility of Mendoza getting another shot at Ohio State in the national championship, purely to evaluate how he’d counterattack Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s adjustments.
“I want to see him do what he’s been doing, manage the game, make smart decisions and make a play when they need him to,” another executive said. “Indiana should dominate, although Alabama has talent. You just want to see him be consistent.
“(Running) is part of managing and controlling the game. If he’s able to make plays with his legs to keep drives alive, to make plays in the red zone, it’s an added threat for a quarterback of his size. All these guys need to do that at some point. It just adds another wrinkle for the offensive play caller and a lot more for defensive coordinators to prepare against.”
A new No. 1?
While Mendoza’s stock as a top-two QB feels secure, this postseason is shaping up to be a much bigger showcase for Moore. The 20-year-old has steadily improved throughout the season and appears to have the highest potential ceiling of the trio because of his athleticism. But he has been inconsistent, and evaluators have agreed it’d be better for his long-term development to return to the Ducks for another season.
However, there are already teams considering Moore as QB1 because of his potential. If he plays well against Texas Tech’s defensive front, which is loaded with NFL talent, Moore will continue to sway teams.
A run to the national championship, coupled with high-octane play, could turn Moore into a virtual overnight sensation. And after playing well with key teammates out with injuries, Moore might have too much potential to pass over with the No. 1 pick.
“He has the most upside physically of the three (QBs) in terms of being able to move, throw on the move, escape, horsepower in the arm,” an executive said. “But he’s started (13) games. He’s a baby in terms of playing the position.”
Moore was described to The Athletic as an old soul who is process-oriented with high-end intangibles. Teams believed Moore had long intended to return to school in 2026, but that hasn’t sounded like as much of a certainty for the past month or so. If the 6-foot-3, 206-pounder plays poorly against Texas Tech, a return to Oregon could be more likely.
In that scenario, Moore might be the immediate favorite to become the No. 1 pick in 2027.
“He’s helped himself a lot the last month and a half,” another executive said. “His next test is Texas Tech against some edge rushers who will give him problems like NFL guys. He’ll be under more stress with their front. If he plays well, he’ll push Mendoza for QB1. But he may still go back to school. I wouldn’t fault him for that.”
Can Simpson close the gap?
Simpson probably had the best tape of the three quarterbacks for most of the season, but the 6-foot-2, 208-pounder struggled over the final month before a resurgence against Oklahoma. The 23-year-old first-year starter is viewed as a first-round pick, but he’s a safe distance behind Mendoza and Moore.
Simpson wins at the line of scrimmage, breaking down defenses before the snap and identifying where to go with the ball. He’s also been using his legs more of late. Teams want to see how he’ll handle pressure, as he was flustered in the pocket in the loss to Georgia.
“He is really special identifying everything pre-snap and getting the ball out quickly,” an executive said. “That’s his superpower.”
The opposite of Moore, teams have believed Simpson was intent on declaring for the draft. But a poor showing against Indiana could pause that plan.
“He’s the one who needs to play the best,” an executive said. “He had a great start to the season, stumbled over the back half, wasn’t great and had a nice comeback game (against Oklahoma). He’s the one who needs to come out and play well. That’s a good Indiana defense. If he can manage and control the game, minimize mistakes and make timely plays, it really helps his stock. If he stumbles and turns the ball over, it’s giving you proof he’s a guy who should go back to school.”
Another executive added, “If this were a decent year for quarterbacks, Ty and Dante should go back. They don’t have the reps. They’re going to get thrown to the wolves if they have to play early.”
There are always external factors with these decisions. For Simpson in particular, a return to school might benefit his long-term development, but it could derail his imminent earning power if Manning, Sellers and others with superior traits happen to leapfrog him. Worst case, an injury could sabotage his stock altogether.
However it plays out, there’s so much more on the line for the quarterbacks than the inaugural 12-team playoff a year ago. Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (third round), Ohio State’s Will Howard (sixth round), Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (seventh round) and Texas’ Quinn Ewers (seventh round) were never in first-round consideration during the 2024 tournament.
It’s somewhat comparable to the 2023 national championship when Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy topped Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., before both were first-round picks, but that was a four-team playoff. But this year is the deepest class of quarterbacks in a playoff since 2020, when Alabama’s Mac Jones, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields battled it out before becoming first-round picks in 2021.
With the heightened intensity and competition of the new playoff format, NFL evaluators have a better chance than ever to grade quarterbacks over a longer, more meaningful stretch.