Matthew Stafford picked the absolute wrong time to have his worst game of the 2025 season.

The Los Angeles Rams veteran quarterback threw a season-high three interceptions (including a pick six) during Monday night’s upset loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Playing his final standalone game of the regular season, Stafford’s underwhelming Week 17 performance dropped him to second place in BetMGM’s odds to win NFL MVP.

Drake Maye, the new leader for MVP, threw a career-high five touchdowns in only three quarters to guide the New England Patriots past the Jets on Sunday. In the process, New England clinched the AFC East while staying in the mix for the AFC’s top playoff seed.

Stafford and Maye have dominated the MVP discussion and stayed atop the odds since Week 10. After Week 17, the odds shifted considerably in Maye’s favor.

Maye becomes favorite ahead of Stafford

The MVP race looked like Stafford’s to lose over the last two months. Lifted by a ridiculous mid-season heater, Stafford developed a sizable lead over Maye in BetMGM’s MVP odds over the last two months. Even entering Monday night’s matchup against Atlanta, after Maye’s stellar five-TD performance against New York, Stafford was the clear favorite, keeping -250 odds to Maye’s +200.

Monday’s loss for Stafford and the Rams shifted everything. Maye jumped into the top spot with -500 odds for MVP with Stafford dropping to +325 odds. Previously sitting at +2500 odds as the only other viable remaining MVP candidate, Josh Allen plummeted to +25000 odds after Buffalo’s home loss against Philadelphia — effectively making MVP a two-man race.

Nate Atkins, Rams senior writer for The Athletic, discussed Stafford playing below his normal 2025 standard in the unexpected loss to the Falcons.

“Stafford got his final chance at an MVP statement on national TV against the Falcons and it didn’t go as planned,” Atkins said. “Stafford entered with just five interceptions in 15 games but threw three to Atlanta, including a pick six. He was trying to play without two starting linemen and Davante Adams, but the missed downfield placement and risky play were too erratic for his standard, even as he made a couple clutch plays to try to lead a comeback.

“Stafford still leads the NFL with 42 touchdown passes, and the Rams have played the toughest schedule of any team this season and significantly tougher than Drake Maye and the Patriots have. But in a loaded NFC West, the Rams will be playing on the road to start this postseason.”

With only one week left in the regular season, both Maye and Stafford sustain credible statistical cases for MVP. Maye paces the league in completion percentage and QB rating while sitting third in TD passes and fourth in passing yards. Stafford leads touchdown passes by a whopping nine over second-place Jared Goff. In his 17th season, Stafford is second this season in QB rating and passing yards while fourth in completions. Los Angeles and New England are also both credible Super Bowl contenders with double-digit wins and high postseason expectations.

So with both Maye and Stafford stockpiling quality numbers for winning teams, narratives are beginning to take shape. The difference in strength of schedule between Maye and Stafford is the current hot issue in the MVP debate.

New England’s .383 strength of schedule is the easiest in the NFL this season while the Rams’ .555 strength of schedule is third-toughest behind only Arizona and Tennessee. Los Angeles also owns the NFL’s top strength of victory mark (.517), and as Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy pointed out, Stafford’s opposing pass defenses faced this season are also a lot tougher compared against Maye’s.

Complicating the MVP discussion:

Matthew Stafford has played the third-hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. (Harder: TEN, SF)

Drake Maye has played the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses.

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) December 30, 2025

The strength of schedule narrative certainly favors Stafford to a large degree. A loaded NFC West featuring two other Super Bowl contenders — the Seahawks and 49ers — means Los Angeles faced title contenders four times within its own division. If Baltimore wins the AFC North, the Rams will have played nine games against teams that made the playoffs compared to only four such games for New England.

But the metrics don’t factor that Week 18’s matchup against Arizona will be the seventh time this season a backup quarterback is starting against the Rams. Los Angeles never faced Kyler Murray nor Brock Purdy this regular season. Lamar Jackson and Michael Penix Jr. also missed starts against Los Angeles. Rookie Tyler Shough made his first career NFL start when Los Angeles hosted New Orleans. Los Angeles faced plenty of proven playoff contenders but also received some notable breaks in the schedule.

There’s no sugarcoating New England’s weak schedule. The Patriots played five games against the four worst teams in the NFL this season.

But Maye also stepped up when it counted, including a notable road win over last year’s MVP, Josh Allen, and the Bills. New England’s 8-0 road record is impressive regardless of schedule. The Patriots are only the 12th team in NFL history to finish 8-0 on the road — an unexpected result for a young team with modest preseason expectations.

Of course, Week 18 still looms for both Maye and Stafford. The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator gives New England a 17 percent shot at the No. 1 overall seed and the bye in the AFC. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel said Monday morning on WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” that he intends to play healthy starters against Miami.

According to the Associated Press, Los Angeles coach Sean McVay indicated postgame Monday night that Rams starters will play Week 18 against Arizona. Locked into either the No. 5 or No. 6 playoff seed in the NFC, it’s uncertain how long Los Angeles starters might play with not much to play for. Stafford threw for 281 yards and three touchdowns the last time the Rams played Arizona in early December. Ending a brilliant 2025 regular season on a high note is something Stafford could want after back-to-back losses.