Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun while identifying intriguing early wagers on the upcoming week’s NFL action. Thanks for allowing us to have our fun last week with our special holiday edition. As a sign of our gratitude, we won’t make you read a parody of “Auld Lang Syne” this time around (that tune doesn’t need any more nonsense added into it, and there is something weird about continuing to mark the imminent march into the future with a song from the 1700s).

Additional thanks to Week 17, which set up a handful of Week 18 games that will serve as Week 0 for this year’s playoffs instead of next year’s preseason. With motivation murky at best in a majority of contests, we at least have a few games we can count on. Let’s get to it!

All odds referenced as of Monday morning.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Early bet: Seahawks +1.5 (-120)

What a way to welcome the new year! The gym and better eating habits will have to wait as we settle into the couch to feast on a prime-time matchup featuring the two hottest teams in the NFC battling for the conference’s top seed.

If you want to take the Niners, the case is easy to make. They have not only won their last six while averaging more than 35 points per game; they have covered each time as coach Kyle Shanahan continues to work miracles with an injury-riddled squad (their four highest-paid players combined for a single snap Sunday night against the Bears). Also, we saw Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold in this exact same Week 18 spot last season, and he responded with his worst game of the season for the Vikings (18 of 41, 166 yards, 0 touchdowns).

However, the Multivariate Algorithm Deducing Every Ultimate Payday (MADE UP) hasn’t (barely) cracked .500 on the season (34-30) by relying on something as silly as logic and facts, and after 17 weeks of evidence, I just think the Seahawks are the better team. Their defense allows them to win in multiple ways, not just the shootouts San Francisco suddenly finds itself in without its stars. But if it comes to that, they also proved against the Rams in Week 16 that they won’t back down from a high-scoring fight, either. Plus, you are getting a free point, which matters a lot more with teams now readily willing to settle a tight game with a late two-point conversion instead of overtime.

With this season’s NFL title being decided at the Niners’ home stadium, a win Saturday night would allow them to make a Super Bowl run without ever leaving their own beds. But the roads in San Fran tend to be windy, and the road to the Super Bowl is more likely to go through Seattle before the Niners can make it back home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Early bet: Over 39.5 points (-110)

The totals in Week 18 look low upon first glance, as oddsmakers deal with uncertainty over who will even be on the field. However, any lack of intensity tends to be split on both sides of the ball, and if Pro Bowls and Rock N’ Jocks have taught us anything, it’s that this can lead to lots of points (people don’t talk nearly enough about Gary Payton dropping 151 at RNJ 97). As a result, overs went 11-5 in Week 18 last year, including 4-1 in games with totals in the 30s.

This year, the most enticing low total on the board is in Denver, where the Broncos and Chargers are both jockeying to improve their playoff positions. Denver can earn its rest by wrapping up the No. 1 seed with a victory, while the Chargers can potentially get out of the bottom slot with a win. The current total seems to price in Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert taking the week off, but nothing has been announced on that front yet, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him continuing to fight through his injuries, as they aren’t going to heal by next week anyway. If he plays, the total is about six points too low (it was 45.5 in the teams’ Week 3 matchup, and they are averaging a combined 46.7 points per game), so act like every defender who faces the Bolts and rush straight through the line to grab it now.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Early bet: Ravens -3 (-120)

I’ll just admit this up front: I’m irrationally nervous about this pick. It seems so obvious after watching the Ravens steamroll the playoff-bound Packers while Pittsburgh suffered possibly the worst loss of the Tomlin era against the Browns. However, we seemingly suffer through this same scenario each year, with the Steelers entering Week 18 in a do-or-die game after a late-season collapse, and somehow, they’ve ended up covering four years in a row in the season’s final week. You have to remember the credits didn’t roll immediately after the car chase in “Groundhog Day,” there was still more movie to come.

However, this is the first season with Aaron Rodgers behind the wheel, and I just can’t back him with DK Metcalf suspended. Rodgers has spent the entire season trying to get rid of the ball as quickly as he can, leaving little time for his receivers to create separation. That can work when you have a beast like Metcalf muscling smaller defenders, but not so much when it’s the ghost of Adam Thielen and Scotty Miller, who sounds more like a guy in an NSYNC cover band than an NFL wide receiver. So, despite the recent historical trends, I’m far more comfortable taking Derrick Henry in what’s likely to be a rough-and-tumble game as the Steel Curtain comes down on the season and Pittsburgh waives “Bye Bye Bye” to the playoffs.

Bonus: Pepper Brooks Special

Some lines open at such a strange number, it actually makes me want to steer clear while figuring out the bookmaker’s angle. Like iconic commentator Pepper Brooks once said in “Dodgeball” after the Average Joes forfeit the championship game, “Bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.”

Cautious pick: Carolina Panthers +3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s be blunt: It’s hard to believe that a team that has exactly one win since Halloween and that’s attempting to win its division despite a losing record is facing odds this short.

The Bucs come into this Saturday’s NFC South showdown as -165 favorites on the moneyline, but it’s difficult to understand why. The early-season Baker Mayfield magic has faded faster than your New Year’s resolution to get off Instagram (you’re about to click back over, aren’t you?), and they have only covered the spread once in their last eight games, with five outright losses as favorites. But unlike social media addiction, losing money on this team is an easy habit to break. Just stop taking them. Like now. Right now.

While the Panthers’ past few seasons don’t exactly inspire confidence, their wins over the Rams and Packers are far more impressive than anything Tampa Bay has done in the season’s second half, and they just beat the Bucs two weeks ago. So while the song may be mostly gibberish, take one piece of advice from it. Let your old acquaintance with Carolina be forgot and never brought to mind. After winning, you can drink a cup of kindness for auld lang syne (sorry, couldn’t resist in the end). Happy New Year!