NFL play-off picture - scenarios & big game deciders in season finale
SOURCE:BBC Sport
The final week of the NFL season is here with the final play-off spots, both top seedings and four division titles to be decided, with three huge head-to-head deciders.
NFL play-off picture - scenarios & big game deciders in season finale
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Baltimore v Pittsburgh will decide the AFC North while Seattle and San Francisco play for top seed in the NFC
ByPaul Higham
BBC Sport Journalist
NFL 2025 season: Week 18
BBC coverage: Live text commentary of Sunday's games on the BBC Sport website and app (from 17:30 GMT). Also live radio commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds from 21:00 GMT.
There are just two places left to play for in the NFL play-offs heading into the final week of the season but plenty more to be decided, including both top seeds and four division titles.
The NFL schedulers have come up trumps as the two remaining play-off spots can be decided in two head-to-head matches.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their fierce rivalry for the AFC North spot and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to beat the Carolina Panthers to have a chance of winning the NFC South.
Denver, New England and Jacksonville could all end up as top seeds in the AFC, while the San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks in a straight-up fight to claim top spot in the NFC.
The winner of Pittsburgh against Baltimore will get the fourth seed, with division champions rewarded with a home game in the wildcard round regardless of their record.
Buffalo and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcards while Houston need a win and Jacksonville defeat to jump from fifth to third.
Denver will finish top seed with a win but if they lose then New England or even the Jaguars could pinch that coveted top spot.
NFC Standings
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Chicago Bears (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
Carolina or Tampa Bay will get the fourth seed and home tie depending on who wins the NFC South, but there's an added wrinkle as the Panthers could lose and still claim the division depending on Atlanta's result.
Green Bay are locked in seventh and Los Angeles could still get fifth - which when you consider could be the difference between a trip to the Eagles or Panthers/Buccaneers is well worth fighting for.
That top spot match-up between Seattle and San Francisco is the highlight though, with the difference being a first-round bye and considerable home advantage or having to go on the road being huge in the play-offs.
What is the NFL play-off format?
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The winners of the two conferences in the NFL meet in the Super Bowl in February.
The top seed in the NFC and AFC both get a first-round bye and home advantage throughout the play-offs.
The remaining six teams take part in Wildcard Weekend, with three division winners playing at home against three wildcard teams - the second seed playing seventh, third hosting sixth and fourth facing fifth.
From there, the top seeds enter the fray by hosting the lowest remaining seed left, with the next highest seed at home against the next lowest seed in the Divisional Round.
The Championship games are then contested with again the highest seed remaining hosting the game - which is why finishing in top spot can be so important.
AFC North on the line in game 272
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Image caption,
Aaron Rodgers scored a rare rushing touchdown when the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens in week 14
These two teams really do not like each other and they have had some street fights in their time - so a bare knuckle battle for the division will be a brutal ending as the 272nd and final regular season game on the schedule.
Baltimore started 1-5 and have lost three of the past five while the Steelers have been consistently inconsistent all season, yet thanks to an unusually weak division this year one side will make the post-season.
Aaron Rodgers almost clinched a play-off return on Sunday but the 42-year-old just couldn't find a late touchdown pass against lowly Cleveland.
Missing dominant receiver DK Metcalf, suspended after an altercation with a fan, could cost Pittsburgh dear.
Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is a doubt for Baltimore with a back injury, but running back Derrick Henry exploded for over 200 yards and four touchdowns in his last game.
Henry could be the x-factor here in a straight play-in game - the winner goes to the play-offs, the loser goes home.
NFC top seed decided in San Francisco
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Image caption,
Brock Purdy has gone 7-1 with 23 total touchdowns in his eight starts for San Francisco this season
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
The NFC West title is up for grabs but more importantly all the trappings of the top seeding as San Francisco host Seattle at Levi's Stadium - which also hosts February's Super Bowl.
It looks like attack versus defence here with the 49ers the league's top scorers since Brock Purdy returned from injury in week 11, coming off their first back-to-back 40-point games in 30 years.
And they need it as without star defenders Fred Warner and Nick Bosa they've also been leaking points - as witnessed during their wild shootout win over Chicago on Sunday.
Seattle's defence is the second best in the NFL with just over 18 points a game allowed and the team moved to 7-1 on the road this season after smothering Carolina on Sunday - allowing Bryce Young to pass for just 54 yards.
Quarterback Sam Darnold is the only man ever to have successive 13-win seasons with two different teams, but he leads the league with 20 turnovers after an interception and fumble in Carolina.
Darnold was in this position last season with Minnesota, but lost in Detroit before having a play-off nightmare against the Rams. He needs to avoid sloppy turnovers to avoid a repeat.
NFC South sees Carolina hold the edge
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Baker Mayfield was in the early MVP race but the Buccaneers have fallen off a cliff since with four straight defeats making it seven losses in eight games.
Carolina have also fluffed their lines though when given the chance, so one team will stumble over the line - and not much will be expected of either in the play-offs.
For the Panthers it is a win-and-in game as victory will book a play-off spot, but not for Tampa Bay as even if Carolina lose they will still take the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans.
That's because wins for the Bucs and Falcons would see all three teams finish on 8-9 - the first three-way division tie since 2011 - and Carolina hold the best record in head-to-head matches.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver should really get the job done here as Chargers boss Jim Harbaugh has already said he will rest quarterback Justin Herbert and any other starters that need it with a wildcard the best they can do.
The Broncos have the tiebreaker edge on the Patriots so just need to win, but should Denver stumble, New England can bag top spot with a win over Miami.
Jacksonville need to beat the Titans, as they should, and have the Broncos and Patriots both lose to claim an unlikely top seed.
The Jags will just have to focus on victory though, as they could suffer a big trapdoor fall if they suffer an upset defeat with Houston waiting in the wings.
A Jacksonville loss and Houston victory will give the Texans the AFC South title, third seed and a home play-off tie with the Jags hitting the road as a wildcard.
All three sides are big favourites to win so things really should stay as they are, but funny things can happen in the NFL.
Media caption,
Are the Jags legit?
NFL week 18 full schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Image source, Getty Images
Image source, Getty Images
Image source, Getty Images