NFL Week 18 confidence picks: Steelers and Giants can pull off upsets
KC Joyner makes his straight-up and against-the-spread picks for the final weekend of the NFL regular season.
After my Week 17 against-the-spread picks went 9-6-1, such selections are 20-10-2 over the past two weeks. It’s time to close the regular season out on a high note!
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-16 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 17 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 8-8 in Week 17 (173-82-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 4-7 (103-64-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-1 (70-18) - Overall to cover the spread: 9-6-1 (130-117-9)
Cover-the-spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 8-4-1 (107-93-8)
Cover-the-spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-2 (23-23-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 18 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
These teams rate roughly even in nearly every area I review. Carolina does have a slight pass game and pass coverage edge over the past month. Tampa Bay is in free fall, having lost seven of its last eight games. I’ll take Carolina for the win and cover.
- Pick to win: Carolina (Confidence level: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Carolina (Confidence level: 3)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco grades much better offensively, but Seattle has a huge edge in defensive metrics. The Seahawks also have a solid special teams advantage, but San Francisco nullifies that with home-field advantage. This is a classic split-pick situation. I’ll take Seattle for the win but the 49ers for the cover.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 1)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Saints coach Kellen Moore has quarterback Tyler Shough playing at a very high level. New Orleans also does a very good job in pass coverage. As strong as those advantages are, the Saints don’t have anyone of the caliber of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons’ running back is playing at an MVP level. That sends my pick to win to Atlanta, but it’s close enough that I’ll take the Saints to cover.
- Pick to win: Atlanta (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: New Orleans (CL: 2)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Joe Burrow could have just mailed it in after the Bengals were eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, he decided to show the world that he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Cincinnati has other stat advantages to go along with Burrow. I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Cincinnati (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 6)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
The NFC playoff teams are breathing a sigh of relief that they don’t have to face the Vikings’ defense in the postseason. Minnesota has fantastic pass coverage and pass rush metrics of late. Green Bay may end up sending a third-string quarterback against that defense. That makes this an easy pick.
- Pick to win: Minnesota (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 7)
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
This was the most surprising result in my weekly stat review. The Giants have significant metric advantages on defense and actually keep up with Dallas in many areas on offense. Those edges are enough for me to pick the Giants for the outright upset win and corresponding cover.
- Pick to win: New York (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 7)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
Tennessee was the worst team in the NFL earlier this year. The Titans have been anything but in the past four weeks. Tennessee’s offensive and defensive metrics over the past month go toe-to-toe with Jacksonville’s. It’s not enough for me to pick the Titans for an outright win, but I’ll take Tennessee for the cover at a solid confidence level given the 12.5-point spread.
- Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: Tennessee (CL: 5)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10.5)
The Texans are playing exceptionally well right now. They have strong pass rush and pass coverage metrics, the best special teams numbers in the NFL over the past month and above-average passing offense numbers. With Indianapolis ending the Philip Rivers experiment, and with coach DeMeco Ryans indicating the Texans will not rest their starters, my pick easily moves to the Houston column.
- Pick to win: Houston (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 7)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Bills have an edge in just about every metric area for this game outside of special teams. The problem is that Sean McDermott may rest some starters. That’s why Buffalo is only a seven-point home favorite despite a huge talent disparity. The uncertainty leads me to pick the Bills to win but the Jets to cover.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 2)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Bears need this win to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They have solid metric advantages in rush offense, rush defense and special teams over the past month. Chicago is also the healthier team. Dan Campbell’s Lions squad won’t make this easy, so I’ll take the Bears to win but by a small margin.
- Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 2)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-12.5)
The Chargers are going to rest Justin Herbert for this game and could rest other starters. Denver had a solid metric advantage before that decision was made. With L.A. playing backups, this is now a 10-point pick-to-win call.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 10)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 9)
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The metrics for this game are not pretty. Both squads are playing subpar football in many areas of late. The Chiefs are playing backups, but Andy Reid’s squad is still playing to win. The Raiders could already have their cars warmed up at halftime. I’ll take the more motivated Chiefs to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Kansas City (CL: 4)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
The Rams’ season has gone south after an 11-3 start. Sean McVay knows this and has indicated that L.A. will play its starters to sharpen up his team. That may be semantics that lead to the Rams going to backups at halftime. Arizona is so bad that even half of its starters should be enough for Los Angeles to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 4)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5)
The Dolphins surprisingly fare quite well in this metric matchup. Over the past four games, Miami has roughly equal offensive numbers to the Pats and has advantages in rush defense and pass rush. New England needs this win to keep the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the Dolphins won’t make it easy. I’ll take the Patriots to win but Miami to cover.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Miami (CL: 2)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
This spread has been all over the place, and the Eagles are currently only favored by four points with reports that the team will rest Jalen Hurts and most starters. Philadelphia has a notable talent and metric advantage that can offset some of that, but maybe not enough to cover. Give me the Eagles for the win but the Commanders for the cover.
- Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Washington (CL: 2)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
King Henry was fantastic last week. Pittsburgh’s rush game doesn’t grade out as well, but the Jaylen Warren-Kenneth Gainwell combination means the Steelers’ ground attack isn’t that far behind Baltimore’s. Not having DK Metcalf hurts Pittsburgh, but the Steelers have much better pass coverage metrics and are the home team. Pittsburgh has won nine of the past 12 matchups in this series. There’s enough here to pick the Steelers to win outright and get the cover.
- Pick to win: Pittsburgh (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (CL: 3)