NFL Week 18 picks against the spread: Why I'm trusting King Henry and the Ravens
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Vic Tafur
Picking the Ravens over the Steelers is almost too easy. We also like the Seahawks over the 49ers and Bucs over Panthers in critical games.
Long live the king!
That’s what Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh will be yelling Sunday night when “King (Derrick) Henry” saves his job by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North and punch a ticket to the playoffs. Henry has put the Ravens on his back, and they would have a three-game winning streak if Harbaugh had noticed Henry not being used in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots two weeks ago.
As it is, they are in position to put a sensible, no-nonsense end to what has been a bizarre regular season: a team giving a 252-pound future Hall of Famer the ball and watching the bodies fall. Last week against the Green Bay Packers, Henry rushed for 216 yards despite facing a stacked box on 44 percent of his 36 rushes. Not bad for someone blowing out 32 candles on Sunday. Henry now has seven career games with 200-plus rushing yards, the most in NFL history.
We’ve been saying all season that Harbaugh and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin should be on the bubble, and it bursts here for Tomlin after 19 seasons. He needs a fresh start, as do the Steelers, and we thought Tomlin essentially waved the white flag last week when he punted from the Cleveland Browns’ 46 on fourth-and-5, down 10-6 in the fourth quarter.
We, on the other hand, will never surrender. We started 5-0 against the spread last week before stumbling on Sunday and Monday, but we were one point away from being perfect on the five best bets — and we learned after that the Jacksonville Jaguars were dealing with a flu bug in winning by only six points.
Season record: 124-124-8 against the spread, 42-43 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.Click herefor live odds.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) | 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN
It’s obvious how this has to end in the NFC South — the Buccaneers beat the Panthers and then have to root for the Falcons to lose Sunday to make the playoffs because of the three-way tiebreaker. That’s not going to be easy, as the Buccaneers have been bad in all three phases during their 1-7 skid.
But they lost to the Panthers by only 3 two weeks ago and are otherwise 4-0 against Bryce Young. Like a horror movie monster that’s been “killed” several times, the Buccaneers trudge on for another day thanks to muscle memory.
The pick: Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers | 8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN
The Seahawks have a much better consolation prize than the 49ers, as they get to face the NFC South winner if they lose Saturday. They also have the better team, as their defense is No. 1 in EPA per play allowed. The 49ers stole a win in Seattle in the opener when they had Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pass rush in the league without them. Sam Darnold is averaging a league-best 9.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Packers are locked into the seventh seed in the playoffs and will rest starters, while the Vikings’ defense is coming off a dominating performance against the Lions, and Minnesota has won four games in a row. Though the Packers should drop to 0-4 since Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they have enough pride to keep it close.
The pick: Packers
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Joe Burrow and company have won easily as best bets for us the past two weeks, and part of the reason is that their defensive players can now look their families in the eyes after games.
Meanwhile, it feels like the Browns ended their season with a big win over the hated Steelers last week, and players are deciding what shirts to pack for Cancun and Las Vegas. And they’re probably chuckling at reports on how coach Kevin Stefanski is a hot candidate to get a job elsewhere,
The pick: Bengals
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
It sounds like Jerry Jones wants Dak Prescott to go out with a bang, and that he thinks finishing 8-8-1 is important. The Giants can’t stop the run (31st at 145 yards allowed per game), which will get Prescott into some comfortable down and distances. Plus, I have no interest in backing a 3-13 team exhaling after a win.
The pick: Cowboys
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Trevor Lawrence became the fourth player in NFL history with 25-plus passing touchdowns and nine-plus rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Cam Newton. The Jaguars are 4-0 since defensive end Travon Walker came back from wrist and knee injuries, and they have a lot to play for, as they could still finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 7 in AFC playoff seeding.
The pick: Jaguars
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Saints rookie Tyler Shough, three months older than Brock Purdy, joined Burrow (2020) and Prescott (2016) as the only rookie QBs since the 1970 merger with 300-plus passing yards and zero interceptions in back-to-back games.
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ run game has improved by 28 yards per game (120 to 148) since old man Kirk Cousins took over at quarterback. Raheem Morris gets his first four-game winning streak as Falcons coach, thanks also to a defense that has stopped opponents for no gain or a loss on league-high 38 percent of snaps the past three weeks.
The pick: Falcons
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Philip Rivers finishes 0-3, but oh man, was everyone entertained. The Colts brass this week: “Hey, Riley Leonard, never mind that we signed a grandpa to play over you. You’re up … against the scariest defense in the league.’ The Texans are playing for a division title, while the Colts should see past the Daniel Jones injury as an excuse and clean house.
The pick: Texans
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
What are we missing with this number? The 11-5 Bears are playing for the No. 2 seed and also looking to avenge a 31-point loss to the Lions back in September. The 8-8 Lions are already licking their paws, having lost three in a row and been eliminated, and their run defense has been awful (5.5 yards per rush) the past five weeks. And Jared Goff hates the cold. Hmm. We’re going to trust our spidey senses — and hey, Dan Campbell is 8-1 ATS after losses as a favorite — and go against logic and take the points.
The pick: Lions
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If the 49ers win Saturday, the Rams have nothing to play for. If the Niners lose, the Rams can grab the No. 5 seed and a date with the NFC South chump. (No, not a typo.) Either way, laying the points here probably comes down to your confidence in backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo against a Cardinals team that, it turns out, was much more competitive with the often maligned Kyler Murray.
The pick: Rams
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
It sounds like Josh Allen, who has a sore foot, and the Bills’ starters will play a little bit to get the taste of last week’s loss out of their mouths. Which is probably bad news for Jets coach Aaron Glenn, who already can’t feel safe after losing each of the past four games by at least 23 points (-107 overall). Imagine if Mitch Trubisky and Ray Davis put up 35.
The pick: Bills
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Eagles are going to rest players, as coach Nick Sirianni noted how important a week of rest was for the Super Bowl teams of 2022 and 2024. They’re still a mess offensively — Jalen Hurts didn’t complete a pass in the second half last week and is somehow 2-0 when doing that this season — but their defense is coming around. It has allowed a league-low 1.0 points per drive during the three-game win streak. That’s good enough for me and my Tanner McKee.
The pick: Eagles
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Either Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford is deserving of the MVP award. How’s that for a hot take? Maye might have had the easiest schedule this century, but he does take care of business. He leads the league with a 71.7 completion percentage, and this week, he gets a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the highest completion percentage to opposing QBs this season. Plus, the Patriots might get a stud back on each side of the trenches in Will Campbell and Milton Williams.
The pick: Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-12.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Jim Harbaugh is smart. Resting his players Sunday locks up the No. 1 seed for the Broncos and gives Harbaugh two weeks to scout the Patriots, the likely first-round opponent for the healthiest version of his team. Does that mean the Broncos are the obvious bet here? Well … they’re 2-8 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this season, and while R.J. Harvey helped your fantasy team, the Broncos sorely miss J.K. Dobbins in games like this. Give me Trey Lance and the backdoor cover.
The pick: Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Pete Carroll said he wants a “special” win to end the season, never mind that Raiders fans are coveting the first pick in the draft. Maybe he thinks a meaningless win will convince owner Mark Davis to let him stay another year, but Davis isn’t making those decisions anymore.
Anyway, I do think some players like Carroll enough to give the Chiefs and Raiders fans a scare. It doesn’t hurt that Geno Smith is out — his -0.1 EPA per dropback ranks 38th among qualified QBs. Take the points.
The pick: Raiders
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
This one just seems too easy, which might mean trouble. But … the Ravens are 7-3 and sixth in defensive EPA per play since their Week 7 bye.
Without the suspended DK Metcalf last week, Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed a season-low 38 percent of his pass attempts to wide receivers (8 of 21), including 1 of 9 passes thrown to wideouts at least 10 yards downfield. Metcalf, out again, has more receptions from Rodgers on 10-plus-yard throws (17) than all other Pittsburgh wide receivers combined (15). And then, the whole “King” thing.
The pick: Ravens
Best bets: All favorites. The Bengals and Ravens keep it rolling against the Browns and Steelers, respectively. And coaches say “next man up” so often that we’ve been brainwashed — the Bills, Eagles and Rams’ backups carry us home against the Jets, Commanders and Cardinals.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We took only four underdogs this week. Of those, we’re gonna hope Malik Willis plays and the Packers cash in at +280 against the Vikings.