NFL Week 18 projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
Austin Mock's NFL model has projected point spreads and totals for every Week 18 game.
Alex Highsmith and the Pittsburgh Steelers are underdogs at home against Baltimore in the battle for the AFC North title. Nick Cammett / Getty Images
The final week of the NFL regular season is always messy. There are teams playing for their lives and teams playing for nothing. Plenty of teams rest starters, and projecting those games is complicated and imperfect.
My model is still giving it a shot this week. I have tried to factor in injuries and starters who won’t play, but there are more discrepancies compared to the betting lines than usual.
I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes play-by-play data to map out potential game outcomes for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense.
From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season. Below, you’ll find those projections compared against the odds on BetMGM.
Among the two division-deciding games, Tampa Bay is projected to beat Carolina by 3 points, and Baltimore is projected to win by 3 points at Pittsburgh.
Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419