NHL trade matchmaker: Predicting where top targets go by the deadline, part 3
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Chris Johnston and Pierre LeBrun
Where could Alex Tuch, Blake Coleman, Justin Faulk and Andrew Mangiapane end up by the deadline? Our insiders' picks.
Trade activity has picked up since the NHL’s holiday roster freeze was lifted last weekend.
Just nine weeks remain until the March 6 trade deadline.
That leaves enough runway for the needs of buyers and sellers to shift before the biggest decisions are made — or for buyers and sellers to switch places. Still, it’s never too early to start identifying potential fits between teams and players available on our latest NHL trade big board.
With that in mind, enjoy part three of trade-board matchmaker. (Catch up on Part 1 here and Part 2 here.)
Alex Tuch
Team: Buffalo Sabres Position: Winger Shoots: Right Age: 29 Contract term: 2026 UFA Current cap hit: $4,750,000 Trade Board ranking: No. 3
LeBrun: Los Angeles Kings
There’s been a reset in extension talks with agent Brian Bartlett now that Jarmo Kekäläinen has replaced Kevyn Adams as general manager, and Kekäläinen has made a point of saying he wants to retain Tuch. It’s a hard situation to read now; no one involved is tipping their hand as they want to give these talks an honest shot and there’s a clear positive mood to that situation for the moment.
It still comes down to whether Kekäläinen is comfortable that it will get it done, though. There remains a world in which it doesn’t, and then what? The Sabres are the NHL’s hottest team and could be sitting in a playoff spot at the trade deadline. Would they really trade Tuch in that case? On the flip side, can Kekäläinen afford to let an asset like Tuch walk out the door for nothing on July 1?
Kekäläinen isn’t afraid to make hard decisions. I can see him trading Tuch if he thinks he can’t sign him. And I’m going to pick the Kings as the destination. Los Angeles is hanging on in the playoff race in the West despite struggling offensively. Tuch would be an ideal boost on the right side behind first-liner Adrian Kempe. And the Kings have ample cap room.
This is an obvious fit for me if the Sabres ever put him on the market.
Johnston: New York Rangers
Let me reiterate the point Pierre just made: No one is getting traded away in the middle of a 10-game winning streak. The Sabres are smoking hot, and Tuch is the team’s second-leading scorer.
But at some point in the coming weeks, this is going to come down to business, and Buffalo will have to decide if it can stomach a significant raise in the years ahead while still leaving room for the team to spend in other areas.
If the Sabres move on from Tuch, the Rangers look like a sneaky good fit. New York is armed with serious cap space this summer, and it doesn’t have a lot of obvious places to deploy it after the most attractive potential UFAs signed extensions with their existing clubs. The Rangers won’t be looking to rebuild and need to make sure they spend that free money wisely.
Rather than waiting until July 1 and chasing someone like Tuch on the open market, the most prudent move might be executing a sign-and-trade deal at the deadline to build in more certainty around what’s to come.
Blake Coleman
Team: Calgary Flames Position: Winger Shoots: Left Age: 34 Contract term: 2027 UFA Current cap hit: $4,900,000 Trade Board ranking: No. 4
LeBrun: Tampa Bay Lightning
Coleman is the player the Calgary Flames have received the most calls on this season. That’s because his game is especially fit for playoff time. He is a leadership/character guy with a versatile skill set and the ability to make an impact on both sides of the puck.
There’s no guarantee the Flames move him, but it’s going to be tough to resist the calls that will come closer to the deadline. And I like the idea of Coleman being traded back to Tampa Bay, where he won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021.
The Bolts already brought back Ryan McDonagh and Yanni Gourde, so why not Coleman?
All the injuries the Lightning have had this season have affected their ability to accrue cap space, so the Flames would need to retain salary to make the math work — and even then, it won’t be easy. But where there’s a will, there’s a way. I think the Lightning have traded away all their draft picks for the next 20 years. Just kidding, but they’ve traded away a lot, so making this deal work would need some creativity. They do have a 2028 first-rounder, as well as their second-rounders each of the next three years.
Few, if any, are more creative than Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois. He can get it done.
Johnston: Dallas Stars
The Stars have all of the same incentives to chase the player and don’t have nearly the same level of cap constraints, with Tyler Seguin’s $9.85 million hit available to be used through long-term injured reserve.
As an added bonus, Coleman is a local boy — from Plano, Texas.
Most important of all is the fact that he plays a responsible two-way style that can help elevate a third line into becoming a difference-maker for a contender. He was a major secondary contributor to those Stanley Cup wins for Tampa Bay and has continued to perform at a similar level in Calgary, where the Flames just haven’t had the top-of-the-lineup horses needed to maximize his impact.
The Stars are in full Cup-or-bust mode after three straight trips to the Western Conference final and will be looking to improve around the margins as the deadline nears. Adding Coleman would be a good place to start.
Blake Coleman won the Stanley Cup twice during his time with the Lightning. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Justin Faulk
Team: St. Louis Blues Position: Defenseman Shoots: Right Age: 33 Contract term: 2027 UFA Current cap hit: $6,500,000 Trade Board ranking: No. 7
LeBrun: Vegas Golden Knights
Blues GM Doug Armstrong has been open for business since November, and there’s no question in my mind that one of the players he’s listening on is Faulk. He’s a veteran who carries value, and the Blues want to continue their push to retool on the fly and get younger in the process.
Faulk has averaged more than 22 minutes of ice time this season and would be a valuable addition for a Cup contender needing that kind of top-four boost for the next two playoff years.
I could see a world in which Faulk ends up with the Golden Knights, who haven’t really replaced the injured Alex Pietrangelo. I still think Rasmus Andersson is the more natural fit for the Golden Knights but if that doesn’t happen, Faulk is signed through next season and would give Vegas two playoff runs with a trusted right-shot defender.
Johnston: Florida Panthers
The Panthers will be looking to upgrade the right side of their blue line, where Jeff Petry is currently logging minutes on the third pairing behind Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad.
Chasing Faulk would represent a home-run swing rather than a mere upgrade, and who could be more incentivized to go big than the Panthers?
Florida GM Bill Zito has never shied away from an aggressive move, and he’ll be trying to arm his team with the horses needed to win a third straight Stanley Cup. Faulk looks like he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank, and he’s never been particularly close to a championship during a 1,000-game career.
He’d bring some hunger with him to South Florida.
A move like this one would require some serious cap maneuvering, but that’s been another strength of this budding Panthers dynasty. They tend to find a way to get business done when everyone else thinks it’s not going to be possible.
Andrew Mangiapane
Team: Edmonton Oilers Position: Winger Shoots: Left Age: 29 Contract term: 2027 UFA Current cap hit: $3,600,000
LeBrun: Winnipeg Jets
Made a healthy scratch earlier this week by the Oilers, the writing appears to be on the wall for the 29-year-old winger in Edmonton. It just hasn’t been a fit.
The tricky part is that Mangiapane has a full no-trade clause, so his agent, Allain Roy, will have a major say in helping the Oilers find a new home for his client. League sources confirm Roy has been calling teams to gauge market interest.
There’s also the part of having another year on his deal at a $3.6 million cap hit. I think Mangiapane is pretty open-minded about where he lands, with a contender being ideal, but a team that’s getting close is also a possibility.
How about a team that was first overall in the league a year ago and is in dire need of help? Give me the Jets. They’re dying for any kind of secondary scoring. I think the fact Mangiapane has another year on his deal would actually be appealing to the Jets, whose playoff chances are certainly in trouble for this season but far from done.
Johnston: Toronto Maple Leafs
There’s definitely some risk built into this type of move, given how poorly things have gone for Mangiapane in Edmonton. The last thing the Leafs need is another underperforming veteran forward eating up valuable cap space.
There’s also some logic to it, though.
Toronto is low on draft capital and knows it’s going to have a tough time chasing upgrades at the trade deadline as a result. The acquisition cost in this case will likely be negligible. Plus, Mangiapane is only one year removed from a season with the Washington Capitals that included some encouraging stretches of play.
It’s also worth noting that the player has a favorable history with Leafs GM Brad Treliving dating back to their time together in Calgary.
If you’re going to take a risk, it’s always easier to do it on a known commodity.
