Operation Porcupine: Ukraine Develops New Tactics for the Never-Ending War
SOURCE:Spiegel International
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears uninterested in peace in Ukraine, and there is no end to the war in sight. Kyiv has increasingly reached the conclusion that the country must do all it can to guarantee its own security.
The Russians have yet again shifted their tactics, says Sokil. Several months ago, they would send small units into battle, but now, it is often just single soldiers operating on their own. And they are no longer looking to fight, preferring instead to just sneak forward and wait for air support, says the Ukrainian major. "Their FPV drones are everywhere,” he says, using the common shorthand for "first-person view.”
On a mild, late summer night, Sokil is resting at a farm on the western edge of the Donbas, taking a drag from his cigarette. Next to him, in the unit’s command center, his troops are pulling 12-hour shifts – a half-dozen men, eyes squinted, sitting in front of eight screens showing infrared footage from the battlefield: anti-tank ditches, bombed bridges and the ruins of villages.
Before the war, Sokil – whose radio call sign means "falcon” – ran a furniture shop in western Ukraine, traveling to trade fairs in Cologne and other European cities. Today, the 34-year-old commands a battalion in the 68th Brigade. For the last year and more, he and his unit have been defending Pokrovsk, one of the last remaining Ukrainian bastions in the Donbas.
Evening falls in a village in the Donbas not far from the front near Pokrovsk.
Foto: Fedir Petrov / DER SPIEGEL
The mining town was supposed to have fallen to the Russians long ago. That, at least, is what experts predicted last fall. But the Ukrainian troops on this section of the front continue to hold on to the strategically important town with skill and perseverance – and under tremendous hardship. But for how much longer?
Enemy Drones Are Hampering Resupply Efforts
Russian troops recently broke through the western border of the Donbas, occupying the first villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the middle of August. The Ukrainians were able to push them back, but the Russians have since begun launching more frequent attacks, reports Sokil – at least 10 attacks each day, with two or three more coming at night. The enemy drones have also hampered supply efforts. "At some point, no one will be able to get into the city or to leave it,” he says. "And then, we would be forced to withdraw.”
Already, the unit has relocated its command center to the border between the Donbas and Dnipropetrovsk, and the Ukrainian defenders have long since begun preparing for battle in the neighboring region. They dug trenches months ago and installed barbed wire and tank traps.
Meanwhile, says Sokil, the Russians are consolidating their forces for the next phase of their offensive. There is no end to their attacks in sight, he says.
Putin Had Other Plans
Just a few weeks have passed since U.S. President Donald Trump’s flurry of diplomacy aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine. In mid-August, Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. A few days later, he received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European partners in the White House.
Trump described the summit in Alaska as "historic”, praising himself for a purported breakthrough and raising the possibility of a tripartite summit with Putin and Zelenskyy. His talks with the Europeans focused on future security guarantees for the war-torn country – for the period after the weapons had fallen silent.
U.S. President Donald Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15.
Foto:
Kevin Lamarque / REUTERS
Putin, though, had different plans. Instead of meeting with Zelenskyy, he continued launching almost nightly drone attacks on the country. His army remained on the attack in the Donbas as well. After several weeks of frenetic diplomacy, the dust has settled. What has remained is the familiar, sobering reality of war: Russia on the attack, Ukraine struggling to defend.
The Ukrainians, says Sokil, have been able to slow the Russian advance with their innovative use of drones. But they are still outnumbered. The lack of sufficient personnel, he says, is felt in every brigade.
The situation is different for Ukraine’s opponent, says the commander. "I don’t think they’re going to lose their breath. It’s a country with 150 million people, and many of them are prepared to fight for money.” His troops, he says, recently captured a Russian soldier who told them that he had received the equivalent of $50,000 just for signing a contract to join the army.
The Kremlin is unbending, and it has more people at its disposal. For Ukraine, meanwhile, neither a victory on the battlefield nor a solution at the negotiating table seems imminent. What can the country do going forward? What strategy will it follow?
A Plan for the Long-Term Defense of Ukraine
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s defense minister from 2019 to 2020, has long been working on an answer to this question. Today, he chairs the Center for Defense Strategies, a security think tank in Kyiv. Following a night in which the air-raid sirens went off again and again, he receives his visitor in a hotel restaurant on the outskirts of the city.
The fact that security guarantees are under discussion is a good thing, says Zagorodnyuk. It forces the Europeans to consider what concrete contribution they can make. But ultimately, such talks are focused on the period after a ceasefire. "What happens, though, if the fighting doesn’t end?”, he asks.
Russia is preparing for the war to continue for several more years, says Zagorodnyuk. Domestically, he points out, Putin can rely on the efficacy of oppression, while he can turn to partners like China and other countries abroad. The Russian economy is geared entirely toward the war, he says, and a collapse isn’t likely, despite the country’s problems. Furthermore, says Zagorodnyuk, the last several months have shown that the Russian head of state does not have to fear pressure from the U.S. government.
"All of that has convinced Putin that time is on his side,” says Zagorodnyuk. "Deterrence no longer works with him.”
A road in Donbas protected from drones.
Foto: Yevhen Titov / EPA
Ukraine and its partners have to react, says the former defense minister. Together, they must build a state that is sovereign and secure in the long term – despite a constant military threat from Russia. To achieve this goal, Zagorodnyuk has developed a concept he calls "strategic neutralization.”
Accordingly, Kyiv can no longer hope to annihilate its enemy on the battlefield. Nor can it bet on the regime in Moscow abandoning its war due to diplomatic and economic pressure. Instead, the Ukrainians’ war aim must be that of blunting the spearhead of Russian aggression. Zagorodnyuk imagines a specific scenario: Russia continues fighting, potentially for years. The attacks, though, fail to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses – and the people of Ukraine can once again live normal lives, even if the war does not formally end .
"It will be a difficult path,” says the ex-minister, "but our army has already demonstrated that it can do it.” Zagorodnyuk points to the successful Ukrainian campaign in the Black Sea. Their attacks with domestically produced naval drones and anti-ship missiles may not have destroyed the once-proud Russian fleet, but they did minimize its effectiveness as a factor in the war. Moscow was forced to withdraw most of its ships to the eastern part of the Black Sea and today, Ukraine is able to export more goods by sea than in years past.
The concept developed by the former defense minister is not official Ukrainian doctrine. In practice, though, it describes the direction Ukraine is already heading. At its heart is a conviction that has grown increasingly entrenched since the U.S. reversed course under Trump: As important as the assistance from Ukraine’s partners continues to be, it is best for Ukraine to guarantee its own security.
Exhibitions By Day, Drones By Night
According to a survey, a majority of Ukrainian citizens would prefer steady financial aid and arms deliveries for their own armed forces over the presence of foreign troops. "Porcupine” is the term that has gained in popularity in recent months, used among others by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The idea calls for the Ukrainian military to become so prickly that it can defend the country against Russia over the long term.
Ukrainian drone operator in the Kharkiv region.
Foto:
Marko Djurica / REUTERS
What that looks like in practice can be observed in Kharkiv. The city in northeastern Ukraine, hardly 30 kilometers from the Russian border, was hit by the brunt of the invasion in the initial days of the war. Ukrainian troops were ultimately able to push back the attackers and force the Russians out of the surrounding countryside. Since then, locals have grown used to a chilling reality. Even as they have managed to maintain Kharkiv’s character as an intellectual and artistic center by day, with exhibitions, seminars and concerts, the nights are punctuated frequently by Russian drones and missiles, with the battlefield extending to the outskirts of the city.
On Kharkiv’s expansive squares, among jewels of Soviet architecture – both intact and damaged – posters are on display, put up by the military, showing young men holding controllers or wearing video goggles. Were they not wearing uniforms, it would be easy to mistake the posters for gaming ads. But they aren’t. Instead they are meant to attract new recruits for the Khartia
The Khartia is a unit of the Ukrainian National Guard that was reformed in spring. Once a brigade, it is now the heart of a corps by the same name. The restructuring is a response to a set of problems that has been plaguing the country’s military for some time. Poor communication among the brigades contributed significantly to the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive two years ago. Training periods were often too short and inadequate, leading many potential recruits to avoid service and driving inexperienced soldiers to desertion. Like the other newly formed corps, the Khartia is promising better planning and training, better technology and equipment.
Training Soldiers for the New Drone War
On a sunny midday in September, a handful of NCOs in a patch of forest near Kharkiv are working to turn that promise into reality. The route to their location leads across bumpy, leaf-strewn terrain, a one-kilometer trudge beneath thick branches and across fallen birch trees. The cracking of assault rifles suddenly pierces the silence, then a burst, followed by yelling.
The battle isn’t real, as quickly becomes apparent. Two young staff sergeants are simulating a firefight by shooting into the ground and throwing fake hand grenades, all part of the training regimen for five middle-aged soldiers.
Infantry troops belonging to the Khartia during training.
Foto: Fedir Petrov / DER SPIEGEL
"Where are your people?” one of the trainers calls out. "Why aren’t you communicating?” An infantryman crawls forward 10 meters, runs for 15 more and then hides behind a tree. "Where is the contact coming from?” the sergeant yells. "Enemy at four o’clock,” the soldier replies. "Not loud enough,” the sergeant growls back. "You have to talk to each other, pass on all information loudly.”
The infantrymen undergoing training here make mistakes, but on the whole, they are in decent shape. The Ukrainian army has been known to throw men in far worse condition into battle. The soldiers are not new recruits but have already seen action, says an NCO who goes by the call sign Maliy or "Little One”.
A verdant green canopy still protects the men from the viewfinders of Russian drones. That, though, will change in the coming months. Essentially, the drones have transformed the classic line of contact into a 30-kilometer-wide death zone.
Training has changed significantly as a result, says Maliy. Soldiers must be able to march at least 10 kilometers with a full load of equipment and each of them are trained in how to use maps. The idea is to make them more independent, teach them to avoid grouping together and train them to better disguise their foxholes. Traditional firefights have become rarer. Now, an infantryman must be able to withstand a Russian attack for 16 to 18 minutes before a drone arrives to support him.
The flying robots help the outmanned Ukrainians protect their foot soldiers. Large drones like the Vampir can are used to plant mines, resupply troops at forward positions and repel attacks. They are able to carry up to 15 kilograms. "Our most important task is to prevent the Russians from breaking through to the infantry,” says the commander of a drone unit who goes by "UFC.” According to him, they succeed four out of five times. Still, the drones are unable to completely compensate for the personnel disadvantage, particularly since the Russians have improved as well. "They have very good drone pilots, a lot of resources. They attack far behind the front and strike our logistics.”
The Example of the Black Sea
Once again, things are seem to follow a familiar pattern: The Ukrainians innovate, but the Russians are quick to copy and scale. When it comes to FPV drones, the two sides are thought to have comparable amounts. But Russia produces around three times as many long-range drones as Ukraine does.
The Vampir, a Ukrainian transport drone, can carry up to 15 kilos.
Foto: Maria Senovilla / EPA
His concept of "strategic neutralization,” says Zagorodnyuk, the former defense minister, would result in a "constant innovation race” with Russia. The Ukrainians, he says, are working on midrange weapons, which would expand the "kill zone” on the Russian side of the front by dozens of kilometers. Such a development could finally put a stop to Putin’s overland advance, Zagorodnyuk believes.
The situation is particularly challenging in the air, however. "We currently have no response to their ballistic missiles,” says Zagorodnyuk. "Only the Patriots help,” the U.S. air defense systems with their expensive interceptors. Even if the Ukrainian defense industry succeeds in making the country less dependent on weapons deliveries from abroad, there is no alternative to Patriots for the foreseeable future.
Given the situation, the Ukrainians are seeking to defend themselves with attacks deep inside Russian territory. Such as the spectacular set of drone attacks known as Operation Spiderweb in early June, during which the Ukrainian secret service SBU hit dozens of Russian warplanes. In addition, a Ukrainian munitions producer introduced the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile in mid-August. With a range of 3,000 kilometers and a warhead of more than a ton of explosives, the missiles could drive up the cost of war for the Kremlin.
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In a best-case scenario, such developments would lead to the situation in the air mimicking thatin the Black Sea: While Russia would not be completely defeated, Moscow would be unable to continue its drone and rocket assault on Ukrainian cities in its current form. The U.S. could help that along by equipping Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles and allowing the Ukrainians to fire them deep into Russia. U.S. Vice President JD Vance recently said that Trump was examining such a request submitted by Ukraine. For the time being, though, those are just hopes: The Flamingo has thus far only been used on a few occasions, and the U.S. president is well known for his flip-flopping.
The Ukrainians are facing other challenges as well. Reports indicate that the country’s recruiting system is on the brink of collapse. The continued fighting is putting a strain on its democracy. Ukraine is facing a budget deficit of several dozen billion dollars. And the U.S. has been pulling further and further away even as Europe finds itself plagued by economic weakness and political instability.
Ukraine cannot afford an endless war of attrition, says Andriy Zagorodnyuk. "We have to enable the people in our country to once again lead normal lives. We will have failed if we don’t.”
