The Las Vegas Raiders emerged from Week 17 in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

According to The Athletic’s NFL Simulator, the Raiders enter Week 18 with about a 77 percent chance to land the top pick in the draft. The New York Giants — winners of the Week 17 Toilet Bowl — have about a 23 percent chance to finish atop the draft board. The New York Jets were eliminated from the running for the No. 1 pick when the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, as that result ensured the Jets could not win the strength of schedule tiebreaker over any three-win teams.

The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans are also no longer in the running due to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.

Let’s take a look at what will decide the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

The Raiders enter Week 18 in sole possession of last place in the league standings. It’s the first time since Week 14 that there hasn’t been a tie for the top spot.

The formula is simple for the Raiders, on paper: Lose their Week 18 home matchup against the banged-up Kansas City Chiefs, and the top pick goes to Las Vegas. The game can be tricky for Raiders fans hoping for a loss. The Chiefs, who are down to third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun, are less than two weeks removed from a loss to the then two-win Titans. However, the Chiefs also managed to play the Denver Broncos, the potential top seed in the AFC, tough in a 20-13 loss in Week 17.

A 24-point loss to the Giants, days after shelving star pass rusher Maxx Crosby and star tight end Brock Bowers for the rest of the season, would indicate that it’s unlikely the Raiders have to worry about a win. Even if they do pull off the upset, Las Vegas still has two paths to the No. 1 pick.

The first is the obvious one: if the Giants win or tie against the Dallas Cowboys.

Yet, there’s also a scenario in which the Raiders win, the Giants lose to the Cowboys and the Raiders still secure the No. 1 pick. That would happen if any three of the four following teams lost in Week 18, thus securing the Raiders the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Giants (they already have it secured against any other potential three-win teams):

• Seattle Seahawks (at San Francisco 49ers)
• Cleveland Browns (at Cincinnati Bengals)
• Atlanta Falcons (vs. New Orleans Saints)
• Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)

Even if the Raiders win and lose out of the top pick because of the tiebreaker scenarios, they can’t drop lower than the No. 2 pick.

Remaining schedule: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants (3-13)

The Giants could have clinched the No. 1 pick in Week 17 with a loss to the Raiders, but now they need help. New York’s first order of business would be to lose at home to the Cowboys. Although the Cowboys have been eliminated from the postseason, they have been playing their healthy starters and intend to continue that to finish the season. If that’s the case, the Giants would face Dak Prescott, who has won 14 consecutive games against New York and hasn’t lost to the Giants since 2016.

Still, a New York loss is just the start. In addition to the Raiders losing to the Chiefs, the Giants need at least two losses from the following four teams to secure the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Raiders (and any other three-win teams):

• San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• New Orleans Saints (at Atlanta Falcons)
• Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)

The Giants still have quite a bit of variance in their potential draft slots, as a win over the Cowboys could knock them as far as the No. 7 pick.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dallas Cowboys