Rams at Falcons on MNF: Updated odds, playoff stakes, Stafford's MVP push
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Steven Louis Goldstein
There's much to appreciate around this week's "Monday Night Football" offering. Here's what viewers should know before kickoff.
It’s the last “Monday Night Football” game of 2025. Here’s our seasonal send-off for the iconic theme music (“Heavy Action” by Johnny Pearson) and the most inspired animation packages (a claymation Sean McVay feels inevitable).
The Los Angeles Rams continue their glimmering Super Bowl push, while the Atlanta Falcons try to play spoiler on a national stage. Few wideouts can keep up with Puka Nacua, and few rushers can match Bijan Robinson. There’s much to appreciate around this week’s Monday offering. Here’s what viewers should know before kickoff.
Good: There’s so much of it. Entering Week 17, these Rams lead all teams in points per game (30.5) and were sixth in scoring defense (19.9). Quarterback Matthew Stafford is amid the best stretch of his decorated 17-year tenure. Running back Kyren Williams has notched at least 1,100 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns for the third straight season. And Nacua is a metal-made WR1 with singular fearlessness through the middle of the field. He’s first in receiving yards per game at 113.7, and he’s coming off a career-best stat line (12/225/2 TD) in last week’s instant classic:
On defense, Chris Shula’s Rams are paced by a three-headed edge rush that racks up sacks. Byron Young (11), Kobie Turner (7) and Jared Verse (6 1/2) constrict pockets with relentless pressure. Young and Verse are on the as outside linebackers; Turner, known as “The Conductor” for his choir talent, holds a three-game sack streak and has 5 1/2 sacks since Week 12.
Bad: Bad health is compounding for Los Angeles. Starting guard Kevin Dotson (ankle) is set to miss his first game of the year. Fellow lineman Alaric Jackson (knee) carries an injury designation after missing most of this week’s practices. And all-world red-zone target Davante Adams (hamstring) hasn’t played since Dec. 14. Assuming he can’t suit up, Stafford’s goal-to-go offense gets a lot narrower.
The offense is shining overall, but the group needs to improve on third downs, where it’s 21st in conversion rate. And special teams struggles might be the difference between a first-round bye and a wild-card berth. The instant classic was set off by a missed field goal and some shoddy punt coverage.
Atlanta (6-9)
Good: There’s not nearly as much of it, as the standings show, but the individual skill players have juice. Tight end Kyle Pitts is popping off down the stretch. He’s at more than 98 receiving yards per game in his last four tries, versus around 42 yards per game in Weeks 1-11. The 6-foot-6 tower jumps off the line to make second-level mismatches. WR Drake London (knee, questionable) stretches vertical space along the sidelines. Fantasy football bellwether Bijan Robinson is a three-down marquee at RB. He’s the third player in franchise history with 2,000+ scrimmage yards, joining William Andrews (1981, ’83) and Jamal Anderson (’98).
From the other side, the Falcons’ rookie pass rushers are promising. James Pearce has 8 1/2 sacks, and Jalon Walker adds 5 1/2. Together, the pass rush is up to No. 2 in sacks per game.
Bad: Through 15 games, Atlanta was 26th in points scored and 21st in points allowed. Raheem Morris takes Monday with an 18-25 record as the team’s head coach. Michael Penix Jr. is on the shelf, and replacement Kirk Cousins is mostly a low-ceiling check-down option at this point. The Falcons have negative differentials in turnovers and penalties. Their offense is down to 29th in third-down efficiency. And like their Inglewood guests, the Dirty Birds have gone through it on special teams. Zane Gonzalez is their third kicker for 2025.
The playoff stakes
Despite its winning ways and title bona fides, LA is boxed out of the NFC West race. The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will tangle for the division crown next weekend. The Rams are guaranteed to hit the postseason as a wild card, even if they win out and go 13-4. That doesn’t mean McVay can phone this one in, though. If LA handles the Falcons on Monday and the flailing Arizona Cardinals in Week 18, it secures the conference’s fifth seed. That would lead to a first-round game against the NFC South winner, and either option (Carolina Panthers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is less intimidating than the other division reps (Chicago Bears or Philadelphia Eagles).
The MVP stakes
With 40 touchdowns and five interceptions, Stafford is putting together an all-time great season under center. He tops the NFL in TD rate, adjusted yards per pass attempt and quarterback rating. Coming into 2025, Stafford’s highest MVP vote finish was eighth place in 2023. But he’s favored to win the award ahead of Monday’s national TV spot … and yes, those odds factor in Drake Maye’s incredible Sunday showing (five touchdowns to two total incompletions). It’s Stafford’s hardware to lose as the league hits its last regular-season lap.
The broadcast
It’s the usual ESPN booth — Joe Buck on play-by-play, Troy Aikman on color commentary and Lisa Salters on sideline reporting. There’s no “ManningCast” this week, but there is an ESPN2 simulcast called “MNF Playbook” that uses NFL Next Gen Stats and other advanced analytics. “MNF Playbook” also uses an all-22 overhead camera angle. Luke Kuechly, Dan Orlovsky and Field Yates are on that broadcast.
Fantasy fusion team
Players to wear both jerseys, via Pro Football Reference
QB: Steve Bartkowski, 1975-86
RB: Eric Dickerson, 1983-93
WR: Drew Hill, 1979-93
TE: None!
Defense: Leonard Floyd, 2020-present
No tight end here, but a lot of running backs. In addition to Dickerson, the Rams and Falcons share backfield Pro Bowlers like Todd Gurley, Steven Jackson and Craig “Iron Head” Heyward. This team would pound the rock, then pound it again.
Rams at Falcons odds
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