Rams defense, Texans offense among units that must improve for playoff runs
Whoever can iron out or compensate for their deficiencies will bolster their Super Bowl hopes.
The NFL teams that usually turn playoff appearances into Super Bowl runs are those that have found ways to rectify glaring weaknesses. There are the elite teams that have been consistently good on both sides of the ball all year, but there are other playoff participants that have to find answers. Let’s take a look at some of those faltering units as they head into this postseason and see what they need to do to help their teams become true contenders.
Rams defense
There was a distinct split from when the Rams’ defense was dominant to when they became a below-average unit, and it’s when versatile safety Quentin Lake went down with an injury in Week 11. The Rams ranked third in points per drive allowed from Weeks 1-10. They’ve dropped to 18th since Lake was hurt.
Lake is essential to defensive coordinator Chris Shula’s scheme. His ability to defend against the run allowed the Rams to stay in sub personnel (five or more defensive backs on the field) while remaining stout against the run. Before Week 11, the Rams ranked 13th in base defense (four or fewer defensive backs on the field) rate (22.2 percent). After his injury, they dropped to 20th in base defense rate (29.1 percent). This is huge because when they have sub personnel on the field, they have the fifth-best defensive explosive pass rate in the league (11.3 percent). When they are in base defense, they drop all the way to 31st (23 percent). They give up more than double the rate of explosive passes out of their base personnel.
Lake will be back for the playoffs, according to coach Sean McVay. Of course, there are other issues that have led to the defensive decline. Outside corner Emmanuel Forbes has regressed after a strong start to the season, and the defensive backs they’ve rotated in the box in Lake’s absence, whether Josh Wallace, Kamren Kinchens or Jaylen McCollough, just have not been physical enough to play there consistently, and their bad plays have directly led to explosive plays.
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The defense must be more disciplined with its run fits and improve tackling, but Lake’s physicality and tackling will give them a boost. It may be asking too much for the Rams to be a top-five unit like they were early in the season, but Lake can get them closer. The Rams must have realized this while Lake was hurt because they just signed him to a three-year extension worth up to $42 million on the first day of the new year.
Texans passing offense
After a terrible start to the season, the Texans’ offense found some answers when Davis Mills filled in for C.J. Stroud. The offense turned a corner in their Week 10 comeback against the Jaguars and has continued with Stroud back in the lineup.
The Texans only averaged 1.82 points per drive from Weeks 1-9. From Weeks 10-15, they increased their points per drive to 2.22. The biggest change to their offense was their ability to run the ball with more efficiency. The offensive line began to gel and the team started to give rookie running back Woody Marks a majority of carries. After Week 9, their offensive rushing success rate jumped from 27.4 percent to 40.1 percent. Marks isn’t an explosive runner, but he’s done a good job of maximizing runs with his short-area quickness and vision.
Though the offensive line has improved in pass protection, avoiding third-and-long with an efficient run game is how they’ve been able to reduce sacks. After Week 9, their third-and-long (7-plus yards to first down) share decreased from 53.8 percent to 42.2 percent. Rookie receiver Jayden Higgins’ development and Christian Kirk’s return give Stroud reliable options when Nico Collins is getting double-teamed.
However, the offense has taken a step back in the last couple of weeks. The Texans struggled to move the ball against the Raiders, and last week against the Chargers, after starting the game with two explosive passing touchdowns, the offense bogged down and only scored six points for the remainder of the game. Offensive tackles Aireontae Ersery and Trent Brown were injured in Week 16, causing pass protection to be an issue the following week against the Chargers. Two of Stroud’s interceptions came when he had to let go of the ball early, throwing blindly because he knew he was going to get hit.
Ersery and Brown should return soon, and the Texans’ offense should be able to get back on track for the playoffs. They don’t have to be a high-flying unit with the closest thing we’ve seen to the Legion of Boom on the other side of the ball. If they can score over 20 points a game, they’re going to be a hard team to beat in the playoffs.
Bills run defense
The Bills have been one of the league’s worst run defenses for most of the season. You are going to have issues if you can’t stop the run in the playoffs. However, they just had their best game defending the run against the Eagles, who were starting to look explosive on the ground again before this week. Against the Bills, the Eagles ran for 82 yards on 26 carries (3.2) with a rushing success rate of 33.3 percent.
The Bills don’t have much talent on defense, but a lot of credit should go to their coaching staff. They’ve been able to confuse offenses occasionally with strong game plans and complete unpredictability.
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They confused the Eagles’ run blockers with run blitzes, gap exchanges and a ton of movement up front. Of course, if they get caught in a bad call, they can get burned, but they were dialed into the Eagles offense on Sunday.
With Josh Allen at the helm and one of the best rushing attacks in the league, the Bills have a shot against any given opponent in the playoffs. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich doesn’t need to be hot rolling the dice the entire day, but if he succeeds in clutch situations, the Bills can be a dangerous team in the postseason.
Bears defense
The Bears lead the league in takeaways with 32. In two games that they didn’t get a takeaway, they gave up 30 points to the Ravens and 52 points to the Lions.
As much as you work on takeaways in practice with defensive disguises and ball-stripping drills, there is an element of luck involved. The Bears have been remarkably consistent doing it, though. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does as good a job as any coach at creating confusion on third-and-long. Even with one of the worst four-man pass rushes in the league (32nd in pass rush win rate), they rank 15th in third-and-long conversion rate allowed (39.9 percent).
The issue is getting to third-and-long. The Bears rank 28th in opponent average distance to first on third down (6.5) and 28th in early-down defensive success rate. If the Bears run into the Rams or 49ers, it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to slow them down. Their offense is certainly explosive enough to win in shootouts, but Caleb Williams is only in his second season and his first in coach Ben Johnson’s offense, so there is some question about how their offensive production will translate to the postseason.
49ers defense
The 49ers’ defense just needs to be average or a little below average for them to be Super Bowl contenders. However, there isn’t another unit that has been as ravaged by injuries.
The impact of losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner cannot be understated, but they’ve also lost first-round pick Mykel Williams, who was key to their run defense. Warner could make a miraculous comeback from a devastating ankle injury in the divisional round of the playoffs if the 49ers get there, but it’s hard to see how this team can make the improvements necessary to reach that average-to-below-average level. They don’t get takeaways like the Bears’ defense does and their safeties struggle to cover.
The one way the 49ers could survive defensively is by playing bend-but-don’t-break defense. Since Week 12, the 49ers rank 12th in explosive play rate allowed and 11th in touchdown rate allowed in the red zone. If they can force field goals, the 49ers are good enough on the other side of the ball to take advantage.