It feels as if it’s one of the more wide-open NFL playoffs in quite some time. I’m not quite sure there is an elite team in the AFC this year, as every team seems to have some sort of weakness, while the NFC has the Rams and Seahawks a good bit above the rest. But even with no clear favorites, there are still tiers of teams.

According to my NFL Projection Model, the Seahawks and Broncos are the top two favorites, with some help from receiving the first-round bye in each conference, and then the Rams are the only other team to see more than a 10 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

But since the race is so wide open, I’m interested in looking at a different tier. Let’s call this tier “The Underdogs,” as the bottom six teams in Super Bowl odds per my model all have odds of 3 percent or less. For the sake of this exercise, I’m going to rank these teams based on how much I like them to make a Cinderella run, and explain why the odds are what they are.

1. Los Angeles Chargers

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: 3 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +3000 (30-to-1)
• Chance of winning AFC: 5 percent
• Odds to win AFC: +1300 (13-to-1)

Technically, the Bears have higher odds by the tiniest of margins, but I’m buying the Chargers mainly because I think they have a favorable path if they can get past the Patriots in the wild-card round. First, Jim Harbaugh knows how to win football games and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has the Chargers playing like a top-five defense. Pair that with the fact that the Patriots, despite putting up really impressive numbers this season, have played a historically poor schedule, and anything is possible. The next argument, and maybe my favorite, is that Justin Herbert is a cyborg and he’s been able to get this offense to the playoffs despite missing both offensive tackles and sporting one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And if they manage to get past the Patriots, they get to travel to Denver to play one of the most overrated No. 1 seeds in recent memory (and the AFC is just overall weaker). I’ll take that for an underdog every time.

2. Chicago Bears

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: 3 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +2200 (22-to-1)
• Chance of winning NFC: 6 percent
• Odds to win NFC: +1000 (10-to-1)

This is purely an upside bet because Caleb Williams has found ways to hit explosives this season, but he hasn’t had the down-to-down consistency. Williams ranks 29th in dropback success rate this year among qualified quarterbacks, but 22nd in EPA per play. I think it’s fair to say Williams has gotten better as the season has gone on, and that might be because of the Bears’ successful rushing offense. What I like most about Williams is that he led the league this year in sacks and interceptions per dropback. He doesn’t take negative plays, which raises the floor of your offense significantly. They’ll play a poor defense in Green Bay this weekend in a game they could easily win, but after that, the NFC gets pretty tough. This is why I’m not quite buying into the Bears over the Chargers, but having some home-field advantage should help.

3. Green Bay Packers

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: 2 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +2200 (22-to-1)
• Chance of winning NFC: 4 percent
• Odds to win NFC: +1200 (12-to-1)

The list is getting pretty dire here, but yes, I’m picking the Bears’ opponent as the next-best underdog. Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches in football, and I would be shocked if they didn’t have a good offensive game plan against a poor Bears defense. The Packers would actually be much higher if it weren’t for losing Micah Parsons to an ACL injury earlier this season. With him, the Packers rank 14th and 13th in EPA per play and success rate, but without him, they fall to 29th and 32nd, respectively. There is just such a small chance a team with that poor a defense can make a run through a tough NFC.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: 1 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +5000 (50-to-1)
• Chance of winning AFC: 3 percent
• Odds to win AFC: +1800 (18-to-1)

Well, somehow, someway, the Steelers have a winning record and host a playoff game. I’m still not buying them to make a run to the Super Bowl because they’re incredibly average on both sides of the ball. But they have found something in utilizing their running backs in the pass game, and Aaron Rodgers is intellectually there to not turn the ball over. Luckily for them, the AFC is without any elite teams, which should give them a glimmer of hope. Yes, I’m putting them ahead of the 49ers even though they have worse Super Bowl odds because they have a similar chance to win their wild-card game and then have a chance to host another playoff game, whereas the 49ers cannot host a divisional-round game.

5. San Francisco 49ers

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: 2 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +2800 (28-to-1)
• Chance of winning NFC: 3 percent
• Odds to win NFC: +1400 (14-to-1)

The 49ers might have found themselves out of the underdog category if Nick Bosa and Fred Warner didn’t get hurt, but without them, this defense is putrid. Yes, there is a chance that Warner can return during the playoffs, but even then, I’m not sure they can generate enough of a pass rush to make a run. Throw in the fact that they have to travel to Philadelphia this weekend, in what I think is a very poor matchup for them, before possibly facing the Seahawks in the second round, and I’m passing on them to make a run.

6. Carolina Panthers

• Projected chance of winning Super Bowl: <1 percent
• Betting odds to win Super Bowl: +20000 (200-to-1)
• Chance of winning NFC: 1 percent
• Odds to win NFC: +8000 (80-to-1)

Well, they’re less than one percent to win the Super Bowl, so they firmly finish last among this list of underdogs. The reason is that when I think of the most exciting thing about the Panthers, it’s rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and their kickoff team (which is one of the best in the league and probably got them into the playoffs). Outside of that, the Panthers’ offense and defense are both below average. They play the best team in the NFL per my model (the Rams) in the first round and find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Sure, they could host another playoff game if they were to upset the Rams again, but this team is far and away the worst in the playoffs.