Then their focus will shift to the postseason. Jim Harbaugh will be looking for his first playoff win as Chargers head coach. Quarterback Justin Herbert will be looking for his first career playoff win. The organization will be looking for its first playoff win since 2018.
Harbaugh announced earlier this week that Herbert will not be dressing for the regular season finale. The Chargers have a chance at moving up to the No. 5 seed, but it is a very small chance. Harbaugh is prioritizing Herbert’s health.
With one regular season game remaining and the playoffs firmly in view, let’s get to some of your questions.
You ask. I answer.
It’s the mailbag.
Thoughts on the best playoff matchup? — @rcastillon29
When it comes to seeding in the AFC playoff picture, there is still a lot to be decided in Week 18. The Chargers could finish as high as the fifth seed. They could finish as low as the seventh seed. The Broncos, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars all still have a shot at the No. 1 seed. The AFC South is still undecided between the Jaguars and Houston Texans. The AFC North, and the No. 4 seed, will come down Sunday night’s game between Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
With so much hanging in the balance, the Chargers could play any of six teams in the wild card round. The only current playoff team the Chargers will not play in the opening round is the Buffalo Bills, who will make the postseason as a wild card after losing the AFC East to the Patriots.
Here are my rankings of those six potential Chargers opponents, from the best matchup to the worst matchup:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
There is already proof of concept in this matchup. The Chargers cruised to a 25-10 win over the Steelers in Week 10. Most importantly, the Chargers defense was dominant in that game against quarterback Aaron Rodgers. By expected points added per play, it was the Chargers defense’s best performance of the season, according to TruMedia. I have confidence that the Chargers can replicate this defensive showing if they see the Steelers in the first round. The Steelers do have a good defensive front, and playing in Pittsburgh in January is never easy. But I like the Chargers defense’s matchup against Rodgers quite a bit.
This is the Chargers’ likeliest first-round matchup. The Chargers have about a 67 percent chance of finishing as the No. 7 seed, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. The Patriots have about a 69 percent chance of finishing as the No. 2 seed. The Patriots have undergone a dramatic turnaround in Mike Vrabel’s first season. But I still like this matchup for two reasons. One, the Patriots have not really been tested this season. They only have one win over a current playoff team, and that came against the Bills in Week 5. New England then lost to Buffalo in Week 15. Two, quarterback Drake Maye will be making his playoff debut, and he will have to handle and decipher coordinator Jesse Minter’s coverage disguises.
3. Denver Broncos
Jim Harbaugh has not lost to Sean Payton since he took over as Chargers head coach in 2024. That could change this weekend, as the Chargers will be resting some starters. But it is clear Harbaugh and his coaching staff can build a plan capable of topping the Broncos. Of course, the Chargers’ win over the Broncos this season came in Week 3, when tackle Joe Alt was still healthy. The Broncos’ defensive front would give the Chargers injured offensive line a lot of trouble. That mismatch puts the Broncos more in the middle of the pack in these rankings. I am not particularly scared of quarterback Bo Nix.
4. Baltimore Ravens
A pretty simple explanation here. Even though he is battling injury, quarterback Lamar Jackson is still incredibly dangerous. The Chargers have also been up and down in run defense this season, and I would want to avoid a first-round matchup with running back Derrick Henry, who is coming off a 216-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Green Bay Packers in Week 17.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chargers got blown out by the Jaguars in Week 11. It was probably the Chargers’ worst game of the season. Jaguars coach Liam Coen has dominated Minter twice in the past two seasons. In 2024, Coen’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense put up 40 points on Minter’s defense. This year, his Jaguars offense put up 35. The Chargers struggled to defend the Jaguars’ misdirection in the run game. The Chargers need to rely on their defense in the playoffs. They have proven to be unreliable against Coen.
6. Houston Texans
Between last year’s playoff loss and the Week 17 loss this year, the Chargers probably have nightmares about this Texans defensive front. Avoid Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter at all costs. The Chargers are not built to handle those edge rushers, as we saw last week.
Why is Ladd McConkey not being used more, especially in the quick game? — @jakebrodt30
Receiver Ladd McConkey had 112 targets during his standout rookie season in 2024. He has 106 targets this season. He has already played 838 snaps in 16 games in 2025. He played 735 snaps in 16 games last year. The Chargers are using McConkey, but his production has waned pretty dramatically. Last year, McConkey finished with 82 catches for 1,149 yards on his 112 targets. This year, McConkey has 66 catches for 789 yards on his 106 targets. According to TruMedia, McConkey totaled 59 expected points added when targeted last year. This year, McConkey has totaled just 2.7 expected points added.
The Chargers signed Keenan Allen in August, and Allen has impacted McConkey’s production. Allen and McConkey have similarities in how they win as receivers. They are both very good route runners. They both thrive out of the slot, where they can read leverage on option routes and create in the short area of the field. Last year, McConkey was running all of these routes for the Chargers. This year, Allen and McConkey have shared that role. McConkey has still played a majority of his snaps in the slot, and Allen has played a majority of his snaps on the outside. But McConkey has a fewer percentage of his snaps in the slot this season, according to TruMedia.
Ladd McConkey is being targeted just as much as last year, but the production hasn’t been there. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
Allen has become Herbert’s go-to receiver in quick-game situations. To portray this statistically, we can look at all passing attempts when Herbert got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less. Last season, McConkey was targeted on 25.2 percent of his routes in these situations, according to TruMedia. This year, he has been targeted on 18.4 percent of his routes in these situations. Allen, meanwhile, leads the Chargers in targets by a considerable margin when Herbert gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, with 70. He has been targeted on 33.5 percent of his routes in these situations.
This change is even more drastic on third downs. Last season, McConkey was targeted on 25 percent of his third-down routes when Herbert got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less. This season, that rate has dropped to 13.8 percent. Allen, meanwhile, has been targeted 27 times in these situations. No other Chargers player has been targeted more than nine times. Allen has been targeted on 44.3 percent of his third-down routes when Herbert got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less.
Allen has made his money in this league by being a short-area weapon, particularly on third downs. Herbert trusts him in these situations. That has impacted McConkey’s production.
What would be your starting five with the offensive line when they go into the playoffs? — @jtthenutt
Jamaree Salyer at left tackle. Zion Johnson at left guard. Bradley Bozeman at center. Mekhi Becton at right guard. Trey Pipkins III at right tackle. That group is the Chargers’ current best five — if everyone is healthy.
Salyer suffered a hamstring injury in a Week 16 win over the Dallas Cowboys. He did not play in Week 17, and Harbaugh said Wednesday that Salyer is unlikely to play Sunday against the Broncos. Harbaugh did add that Salyer could “possibly” return for the first round of the playoffs.
If Salyer is healthy and can play like he is capable of playing, then the Chargers have a fighting chance to go on a run. If Salyer cannot play, the Chargers will have an issue at left tackle, whether that is Bobby Hart or Austin Deculus starting.
Given how adamant Jim was about playing for seeding last year, how surprised are you he’s sitting starters when the 5 seed is still possible? — @DJakaDT
Last year, the Chargers had a chance to clinch the No. 5 seed heading into Week 18. They needed a loss from the Steelers in a Saturday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals, and they needed to win at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Steelers lost, and the Chargers beat the Raiders, so the Chargers moved up to the No. 5 seed. If the Steelers had won, the Chargers would have been locked into the No. 6 seed.
In the week leading up to the Raiders game, Harbaugh said, “Eleven wins sounds better than 10.”
We don’t know what Harbaugh would have done had the Steelers won. He could have rested starters with nothing tangible to gain in terms of seeding. But that scenario did not become reality.
The situation is different this year. The Chargers would need the Jaguars to lose to the Tennessee Titans or the Texans to lose to the Indianapolis Colts to have a chance for the No. 5 seed. Both the Jaguars and Texans are heavy favorites.
The bigger factor is Herbert’s health. He is a little more than a month removed from left hand surgery. The Chargers need him rested and as healthy as possible. Because of that, I’m not overly surprised that Harbaugh decided to sit Herbert. If there was a more realistic scenario for clinching the No. 5 seed, we might be having a different conversation.
