Practical quantum computers are moving closer to reality

Alexander Yakimov / Alamy

Fully practical quantum computers haven’t arrived yet, but the quantum computing industry is ending the year on an optimistic note. At the Q2B Silicon Valley conference in December, which brings together quantum business and science experts, the consensus seemed to be that the future of quantum computing is only getting brighter.

“On balance, we think it is more likely than not that someone, or maybe multiple someones, are going to be able to make a really industrially useful quantum computer, which is not something I thought I’d be concluding at the end of 2025,” said Joe Altepeter, programme manager for the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) at a presentation during the conference. The goal of QBI is to determine which of the several currently competing approaches for building quantum computers can produce a useful device, which would also have to correct its own errors, or be fault-tolerant.

The programme will run for several years and involve hundreds of expert evaluators. Taking stock of the programme after its first six months, Altepeter said the team identified “huge obstacles” in the way of each of the approaches, but he also expressed surprise that this didn’t disqualify any of them from the race to produce a useful quantum device.

“In late 2025, it feels to me like all of the key hardware building blocks seem to be more or less in place, at roughly the required fidelity, maybe for the first time, leaving only these enormous questions about… the engineering challenges,” said Scott Aaronson at the University of Texas at Austin in another presentation. A respected expert and long-time commentator on the industry, Aaronson noted the ongoing challenges with identifying new algorithms that could lead to more practical uses for quantum computers, but described the recent progress in hardware development as “spectacular”.

There are good reasons to be excited about quantum computing hardware, but applications lag behind, said Google’s Ryan Babbush. At the conference, Google Quantum AI and several partners announced the finalists in the XPRIZE competition, which aims to change this.

The work of the seven finalists includes simulations of biomolecules relevant for human health, algorithms that could augment classical simulations of candidate materials for clean energy solutions and computations that may factor into diagnosis and treatment of diseases that have complex causes.