(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 29, 2025.)

5. The Buccaneers are skidding toward the finish line. Is the end near?

The Buccaneers are 3.5-point favorites to beat Carolina at home in Week 18 and claim a fifth consecutive NFC South title. That’s a great place to be, except Tampa Bay has lost seven of its past eight games, including four in a row after losing 20-17 at Miami on Sunday.

If the 7-9 Bucs do beat 8-8 Carolina next week, they’ll win their division with a losing record for the second time in four seasons. That could become tougher to pull off in the future if the Saints have found a franchise quarterback in Tyler Shough, who looks more promising each week.

What’s gone wrong in Tampa?

Some of their issues reflect simple regression. The Bucs’ 6-2 start to the season included a 4-0 mark in games decided by three or fewer points. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in those games since. The Bucs have lost four in a row by four points or fewer for the first time in franchise history.

Some opponents think the defensive scheme under head coach and play caller Todd Bowles could use a refresh. That is tougher to prove because injuries and personnel can play outsized roles.

But as the league has shifted toward split-safety deployments to limit explosive gains, Bowles has remained oriented around single-safety structures and blitzing. That has worked for him across many seasons and still works in Tampa when the personnel is right.

Whether the approach makes the Bucs more vulnerable when injuries strike, especially against offenses proficient with motion and play-action, is a question for the team to answer.

“When the players play well, it is no problem for them,” one opposing offensive coach said. “But as far as structurally, are they outdated?”

Whatever the case, a defense that ranked 10th in EPA per play in 2022 has ranked 18th in each of the past three seasons, including through Week 17 this season.

The pass rush has suffered without interior rusher Calijah Kancey (out since Week 2) and without getting much from outside rusher Haason Reddick, who had 50.5 sacks from 2020 to ’23 but has only 3.5 since.

Non-injury turnover in the back seven suggests weakness there.

The Bucs have lost some of the guardrails that helped quarterback Baker Mayfield play at maximum efficiency.

Both starting guards suffered season-ending injuries. Both tackles missed time early in the season, and Tristan Wirfs missed Sunday’s game with a toe injury. Running back Bucky Irving missed seven games. Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have played only three games together (Evans and first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka have played seven together).