The 'curse' of the College Football Playoff first-round bye: Are top seeds' troubles a fluke?
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Antonio Morales
Teams that receive a first-round bye are 1-7, with Indiana's Rose Bowl win over Alabama this year the only victory by a CFP top-four seed.
When Ole Miss defenders slammed Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton to the Superdome turf on the chaotic final play of the Sugar Bowl Thursday night, they extinguished the SEC champion Bulldogs’ national title hopes with a 39-34 upset.
They also extended a phenomenon few saw coming in the first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff: Teams that receive a first-round bye are 1-7, with Indiana’s Rose Bowl win over Alabama this year the only victory by a top-four seed since the field was expanded beyond four teams. The bye was supposed to reward the best teams, but each loss this week, on top of 2024-25’s winless showing, fueled debates on broadcasts and in living rooms about whether the extended time off might actually be a detriment.
Is the bye week curse a real thing, a coincidence or something in between? Let’s examine the context of these losses and assess whether any declarations should be made.
2024
Let’s remember that the seeding format was different in the first year of the 12-team Playoff. The four highest-ranked conference champions were seeded 1 through 4 and received the first-round byes, not the top four teams. The Big Ten champion (Oregon), SEC champion (Georgia) earned first-round byes, but so did Mountain West champion Boise State (CFP ranking: No. 9) and Big 12 champion Arizona State (CFP ranking: No. 12) because they finished ranked ahead of ACC champion Clemson (No. 16).
CFP leaders initially touted this structure as a way to limit the chances any team would need to play 17 games in a season — 12 in the regular season, a conference title game and four Playoff games — to win it all, and sure enough, this year’s final four teams will play no more than 16 games. But the results quickly sparked concern for other reasons.
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Result: Lost 41-21 to No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
The Ducks went 13-0 in the regular season, didn’t play for 24 days, then started disastrously slow in the Rose Bowl, falling behind 34-0 in the first half before losing by 20 to the eventual national champions in a game that wasn’t that close.
Did the long layoff probably lead to some rust? Sure. But Ohio State had lost by just a point, 32-31, to the Ducks in Autzen Stadium in mid-October that season. The Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country last year and had a major chip on their shoulder after an embarrassing loss to rival Michigan. Ohio State looked so impressive in its first-round win against Tennessee that it was actually favored against Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
The lopsided nature of the Ducks’ loss was definitely a surprise, but they were probably hurt more by last year’s CFP seeding format than the first-round bye. Ohio State was the sixth-ranked team in the final CFP rankings but was seeded eighth, which set up a rematch with Oregon in the Rose Bowl because Boise State and Arizona State had to be ranked in the top four.
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion)
Result: Lost 23-10 to No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl
The Bulldogs’ season has come to an end in the Sugar Bowl in two consecutive seasons. Notre Dame outplayed Georgia, which looked sloppy after 25 days off, but that was also Stockton’s first career start after replacing an injured Carson Beck in the SEC Championship Game.
Stockton demonstrated throughout the 2025 season and in the Sugar Bowl loss to Ole Miss that he elevates his game in big moments, but he was not that player yet when he faced the Fighting Irish. He had a costly fumble that set up a short field and an eventual Notre Dame touchdown, and Georgia’s skill players, special teams and even walk-ons on the sidelines all made crucial mistakes that led to the loss.
This felt like Georgia simply making too many mistakes and working with an inexperienced QB rather than seeing their chances derailed by the bye.
No. 3 Boise State (Mountain West champion)
Result: Lost 31-14 to No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl
Penn State was simply the more talented team in this game and was favored by 11 points at kickoff despite the seeds, per BetMGM. The Big Ten runners-up demonstrated their quality across four quarters.
No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champion) Result: Lost 39-31 to No. 5 Texas in double overtime in the Peach Bowl
Arizona State started slow, fell behind by two scores and didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, when its offense suddenly woke up and staged a dramatic rally thanks to some heroics from running back Cam Skattebo. But the Sun Devils blew multiple early scoring opportunities when they got deep into Texas territory that proved costly.
The fifth-seeded Longhorns were nearly two-touchdown favorites and were widely viewed as the better team. They were the higher-ranked team in the final CFP rankings (No. 3). The fact that this game was as thrilling as it turned out to be was more of a surprise than Arizona State losing. So did the first-round bye really prove to be that detrimental?
2025
The CFP seeding format was changed for the 2025 season to give the top four teams first-round byes, regardless of whether they won their conference or not. For example, Ohio State was seeded second even though it didn’t win the Big Ten; the Buckeyes would have been bumped down to the No. 5 seed under the 2024 format.
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champion) Result: Beat No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl
Indiana had no issues with the time off, leading Alabama by three scores at halftime and cruising to an easy victory. The Hoosiers are the only team in the 12-team Playoff era to win as a top-four seed, treating the Crimson Tide as roughly as they did most of their regular-season opponents.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten at-large) Result:Lost 24-14 to No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl
Miami pushed Ohio State around in the trenches for four quarters. Yes, the Buckeyes were national title favorites, but they would’ve had a horrible time blocking Hurricanes pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. if the two teams had met two weeks earlier, too.
And if anyone’s tempted to point to Ohio State’s offensive struggles after some time off, the Buckeyes scored 10 points in their previous game, the Big Ten championship against Indiana, and scored 14 points in their season opener against Texas. They didn’t score more than 14 points in any of their three toughest games this season — that seems like an Ohio State problem against high-level competition, not a time-off issue.
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champion)
Result:Lost 39-34 to No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl
Georgia was favored coming into the game, but an Ole Miss triumph was never out of the realm of possibility. The Rebels led the Bulldogs by nine points in the fourth quarter of their regular-season matchup on Oct. 18, and that game was played in Athens.
This one was at a neutral site in front of a majority Ole Miss crowd, which leveled the playing field a little more for the Rebels. Georgia’s defense struggled against Ole Miss on Thursday night just like it did in the middle of the season.
The difference was that the Rebels just made more plays this time around.
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Result:Lost 23-0 to No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl
Texas Tech’s defense came to play, but its offense struggled mightily. Many expected the Red Raiders offense would have a major uphill climb against Oregon, but few anticipated the extent of their struggles.
Quarterback Behren Morton, playing through a hairline fracture in his right leg, has been a question all season long. The Red Raiders’ offense also had trouble finishing drives, ranking 97th nationally in touchdown percentage in the red zone (56.16 percent) coming into their bowl game.
That stuff didn’t matter much during the regular season because Texas Tech had much more talent than everyone on its schedule. The Red Raiders ran into an Oregon team that has been building its roster at an elite level for several years now. Against an equally decorated and more tested team, Texas Tech’s warts became more pronounced. The Playoff was always going to provide the Red Raiders with a stiffer challenge than they faced in the regular season, no matter when their first game was.
What’s the ruling?
Look, it’s only Year 2 of the 12-team Playoff. It’s only Year 1 of this seeding format, and who knows how long we’ll have that before something changes again. In several instances, the better teams won these quarterfinals despite having to win a first-round game to get there.
Oregon got an unlucky draw. Georgia was playing with a first-time starter at QB. Boise State and Arizona State were considerable underdogs. Ohio State was outmatched along the line of scrimmage. Georgia (again) lost a close game to a team it barely beat in October. Texas Tech finally ran into a more talented defense.
So yes, the top seeds are 1-7 through two years, but it feels far too early to proclaim the first-round byes as the cause for all these losses. An Indiana national championship would give these seven teams even less of an excuse.