The Falcons won, and now the NFC South championship could be complicated
A win by the Panthers over the Bucs on Saturday clinches the NFC South. If the Bucs win, the Falcons-Saints game on Sunday comes into play.
When the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both lost on Sunday, it appeared the NFC South would be decided in Tampa Bay in a Week 18 winner-take-all matchup.
But in this wacky NFL season, it’s not quite that simple and the Atlanta Falcons — long since eliminated from playoff contention — play a starring role.
The Panthers (8-8) still control their own path. If they beat the Buccaneers (7-9) on Saturday, they will win the NFC South by being the only team in the division to reach nine wins. The Panthers have alternated wins and losses for over two months and are coming off of a 27-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17. They beat the Bucs at home 23-20 in Week 16.
But if the Bucs beat the Panthers, they will not automatically win the NFC South. The teams would have identical 8-9 records, and split the season series 1-1. They would also both have a 3-3 record in divisional games. The Bucs do win the tiebreaker over the Panthers by virtue of their record in common games, but that’s where the Falcons come in and complicate things.
The Falcons have won three straight games, including an upset of the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, to get to 7-9. If they beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, they’ll get to 8-9 and could create a three-way tie atop the NFC South if the Bucs also beat the Panthers.
If that happens, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head among the three teams. The Panthers swept the Falcons 2-0 in the season series and split with the Bucs for a 3-1 record against the other two teams. The Bucs split with the Panthers and the Falcons, giving them a 2-2 record. The Falcons went 1-3 against the Bucs and Panthers. In that scenario, the Panthers would win the division despite the Week 18 loss.
The first order of business for the Bucs would be to get the win on Saturday, which has not come easy lately. Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight games. If the Bucs do beat the Panthers, they will be hoping the newfound magic for the Saints, which has them riding a four-game winning streak, continues for another week. However, the Falcons have some of their own magic going as well, as they’ve won three consecutive games and are coming off the big Week 17 win over the Rams — even though they had to hold on for a 27-24 win after jumping out to a 21-point lead.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers boast a matchup on Sunday night that is truly winner-take-all, with the winner of that game walking off the field with the AFC North crown and a ticket to the playoffs while the loser goes home. The NFC South crown is still between the Bucs and Panthers. The winner may just find out while sitting on a couch and watching their two already-eliminated division foes decide their destiny.