The labor market cooled during a rollercoaster year for the economy and financial markets, and 2026 should start off slow but then improve later in the year, according to JPMorgan.

In a forecast published earlier this month, economists at the bank attributed 2025’s loss of jobs momentum to business uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies.

“As a result both long-term and short-term business planning has remained difficult, and layoff and hiring rates have been low,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, said in the report. “Businesses are hesitant to make sweeping changes to either grow or shrink their payrolls when they’re unsure what the next six months might hold.”

In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown and deportation campaign have been more aggressive than expected, JPMorgan added.

This reduced supply of workers plus the relatively flat labor participation rate flat mean that the monthly job gains needed to keep unemployment steady could tumble to just 15,000 from 50,000. Despite the lower breakeven rate, unemployment will creep higher.

“The first half of 2026 will likely deliver uncomfortably slow growth in the labor market, with unemployment peaking at 4.5% in early 2026,” JPMorgan said, a week before the Labor Department released the delayed November jobs report that showed the rate climbing to a four-year high of 4.6%.

The bank blamed sluggish growth due to the labor supply shrinking from deportations, an aging population and fewer visas for workers and students.

Another factor in the early-2026 slump is artificial intelligence, which has spurred massive investment in equipment, software and data centers—but not so much job creation.

While there are still no signs yet of widespread job losses because of AI, some of the sectors most exposed to the technology have seen slower gains, JPMorgan pointed out.

But then the labor market will reverse course in the second half of the year, economists predicted, citing a more consistent tariff policy, tax cuts from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

“We believe supports are coming together that will arrest this labor market slowdown and revive activity growth later next year,” Feroli said. 

JPMorgan sees GDP growth in 2026 at 1.8%, with one-in-three odds of a recession, and inflation remaining sticky at 2.7%. 

Separately, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan expects Trump to de-escalate trade tensions next year, telling CBS News’  that an average tariff rate of 15% for a broad group of counties is “not a huge impact.”