The Ravens' season is riding on Week 18. Lamar Jackson's future could be, too: Pick Six
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Mike Sando
Does any team have more at stake on the final week of the regular season than Baltimore?
The stage is set for two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson to return from injury and save the Baltimore Ravens’ season.
Beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, win the AFC North and take your chances against a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow, and with Josh Allen hobbling on a bad foot.
Does any team have more riding on the final week of the regular season than the Ravens?
Coach John Harbaugh’s 18th season with Baltimore could be his 13th in a row without a Super Bowl appearance, despite having Jackson, a two-time MVP, in his prime for the last seven. That clock is ticking, much as it was for his mentor, Andy Reid, in Philadelphia a dozen years ago.
As for Jackson? He’s under contract through 2027, but a prominent NFL agent said Sunday what more people are thinking: “The biggest story of the offseason is going to be Lamar. That is going to be crazy.”
Hyperbole? Perhaps. Irresistible? For sure.
The Pick Six column explores possibilities after Harbaugh downplayed a Baltimore Sun report suggesting the relationship with Jackson was again strained. Where there wasn’t a market for Jackson under very different circumstances in early 2023, there could be a robust one now.
The full menu this week:
• Ravens approaching crossroads?
• MVP update: Your turn, Stafford
• Steelers, Metcalf and precedent
• Packers right where they started
• Changing of guard in NFC South?
• 2-minute drill: Thuney’s ninth title
1. Malik Willis looked great for the Packers (again) Saturday night. How would he look in Baltimore?
The Ravens have been here before: about to miss the playoffs (possibly) while their superstar quarterback watches from the sideline, unavailable after not quite looking right most of the season, with anonymously sourced reporting that the team has grown weary of him.
Last time, after a lengthy contract negotiation and a trade request from Jackson, reason prevailed and the sides entered into a five-year, $260 million extension in April 2023.
But in a league where Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff have changed teams under a range of circumstances, it’s not enough to say teams simply do not move on from star quarterbacks. Especially given the unusual dynamics here.
• Projecting the relationship: Jackson secured a lucrative extension from the Ravens without employing an agent, but it was a struggle, and good agents do much more than negotiate. Baltimore has reason to think the relationship with Jackson will always be more difficult because of the unusual arrangement.
“The fact that Lamar does not have an agent is really a big negative,” an NFL team exec said. “Who is talking to Lamar? Who is having the honest conversations? Where is he getting advice in terms of how to deal with these injury things? There needs to be a buffer there for that process to work.”
Agents sometimes clash with teams, which is better than players clashing with teams, or distance growing between the parties.
“A quarterback has all kinds of ongoing issues that other positions do not face,” the exec added. “The top agents have experience with those things. That advice is important, even to the point of sometimes agreeing with the team and letting the player know, ‘No, you can’t do it this way.’ With Lamar, he may feel he knows best.”
• Projecting Jackson's trajectory: Jackson's 2019 and 2024 seasons rank first and second, respectively, in EPA per play (counting rushes) among 231 qualifying QB seasons since 2019.
That's great, but his other seasons rank 58th (2020), 88th (2023), 104th (2022), 117th (2021) and 133rd (2025).
Put another way, Jackson ranks 17th in EPA per play among 41 quarterbacks with at least 25 starts across 2020-23 and 2025. That's right behind Jared Goff and Joe Burrow, which sounds good, but it's also just ahead of Teddy Bridgewater, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, Watson, Kyler Murray and Jacoby Brissett, which sounds less good.
Point being, Jackson has been spectacular at his best, but he has not been consistently excellent. With a hamstring injury (and various other injuries) curbing his running this season, the Ravens might have gotten a preview of what Jackson, who turns 29 next week, will look like as he ages.
If you are Baltimore, do you push for max value in a trade while you can get it, or do you stick with Jackson for the long term? The team is 3-5 in the playoffs with Jackson, including 1-2 after his two most impressive statistical seasons. That's a consideration as well.
• Identifying a fallback: Would you rather have Jackson, or would you rather have, say, three first-round picks and Willis, who becomes a free agent after the season and could be signed for a fraction of what Jackson is earning.
"Get Malik for $15 million a year, trade Lamar, get your three 1s and a player, and now you can justify it, thinking we have a similar style quarterback who is not as good but is younger with way fewer miles," the agent said.
Willis, 26, has completed 70 of 89 passes (79 percent) for 972 yards (10.9 per attempt) with six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 134.6 passer rating in 11 appearances (three starts) for Green Bay over two seasons. He has also rushed for 261 yards and three touchdowns in those games.
• The Luka Dončić comp, but more even: The Baltimore Sun suggested Jackson would like to play for the Dolphins, whose stadium is 47 miles south of where Jackson graduated high school.
The agent loved Minnesota as an under-the-radar destination. The Vikings would send J.J. McCarthy to Baltimore as part of the deal, giving both QBs a fresh start.
Jackson on artificial turf, in a dome? Look out.
McCarthy with a Harbaugh? Worked well at Michigan, where his coach was Jim, not John.
The Ravens, long rooted in the draft, could put the extra draft picks to use wisely (they drafted Jackson at No. 32, after all).
Minnesota, stung by the success Vikings alums Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones enjoyed this season while McCarthy faltered, would recover in spectacular fashion, changing the dynamics of the NFC North.
"Lamar being traded could be similar to the (Dallas) Mavericks trading Luka Dončić," the agent said. "The Mavericks were complaining about Luka's toughness, taking care of his body, work ethic. Luka gets moved, he loses all that weight, he gets in great shape and he's got a new lease on life. Lamar might be the same."
The key difference from Baltimore's standpoint is that the Ravens, unlike the Mavericks, would be getting strong value in return.
"If Lamar were to be put on the block even quietly, and you are a team that is not established at quarterback, do whatever it takes," the agent added.
2. First out of 13,687 seems pretty good for Drake Maye. Can Matthew Stafford tighten his grip on the MVP race Monday night?
Drake Maye's statistical line in the Patriots' 42-10 victory over the Jets ranks first on a list of 13,687 QB performances since 2000, counting playoffs.
Yes, it was against a horrendous Jets defense, but lots of quarterbacks have faced lots of horrendous defenses without reaching this level of efficiency.
With more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (two), Maye averaged 1.28 EPA per pass play, the highest figure in TruMedia's data set, which dates to 2000 and includes those 13,687 performances when QBs participated in at least 20 pass plays.
The outsized production reflected touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal from the 3 and on third-and-7, an 11-yard scramble on fourth-and-3, and only three plays producing negative EPA: an incompletion on second-and-6, another on first-and-10 and a 1-yard sack on second-and-7.
Your turn, Matthew Stafford.
Even with Maye's huge game Sunday, and even with some of Maye's superior statistics, Stafford remains the betting favorite to win MVP heading into his Rams' Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Rams lost any shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed when Seattle and San Francisco won Sunday. But if they beat the Falcons, they have a shot at the fifth seed instead of the sixth, which is preferable because the No. 5 seed faces the NFC South champion (Tampa Bay or Carolina), which will be 9-8 or worse.
Beating the Falcons would also improve the 2026 first-round pick Atlanta traded to the Rams during the most recent draft. That pick is currently No. 11, with potential to reach No. 8.
3. The Steelers' decision to spare DK Metcalf's salary guarantees following his suspension reflects the nuance of these situations. But this story is not complete.
With a playoff berth at stake Sunday, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers faced second-and-goal from the Cleveland 7, trailing 13-6 with less than 30 seconds on the game clock.
Ideally, this is when the Steelers' future Hall of Fame quarterback might target the 6-foot-3, 229-pound wide receiver acquired in the offseason and signed to a deal averaging $33 million per season.
But with Metcalf serving a two-game suspension to end the regular season, Rodgers threw incomplete for receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling on second, third and fourth downs.
Two of the wide receivers on the field for the final play, Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen, are each on their third team since August. The other wideout, Scotty Miller, has started two games over the past five seasons and entered Sunday with 94 receptions for 1,182 yards and six touchdowns in his career (Metcalf had 90 catches for 1,048 yards and six TDs in 2022 alone).
Bad for the Steelers. Bad for Metcalf.
Teams around the league were watching to see how the Steelers would handle Metcalf's contract after Metcalf confronted a Lions fan in Detroit in Week 16. The resulting suspension gave Pittsburgh the right to invalidate $45 million in future guarantees. That right presumably endures in the absence of a hard deadline to make a decision.
"That is a club-precedent-type decision, so they have to be careful with how they handle it," a former GM said.
Fox's Jay Glazer reported Sunday that the Steelers would not be invalidating those guarantees, but the team might be able to revisit the issue later, up to the point when the guarantees vest.
"I don't know that you do anything," another exec said. "To me, it gives you flexibility. You only do it if it gets to a point where it is ugly. The other side of that is, what has it really been like? Do they regret acquiring him?"
In this case, Metcalf contended the fan called him racially offensive names. The fan denied this, but his history of badgering Metcalf, as reported by multiple outlets, could mean more in the Steelers' locker room than Metcalf's own history of losing his cool during games.
"They need to be really smart (with the decision on guarantees)," a veteran agent said. "It is either, 'Hey, do it every time, no matter who the player is, including the star quarterback, or don't do it unless you kind of have to, in a sense. There are definitely repercussions."
GMs navigate a range of considerations where the rest of us sometimes see black and white (Seahawks GM John Schneider wore a Derick Hall jersey under his sport coat Sunday, honoring a player the league suspended for reasons the Seahawks rejected).
The Steelers went into Sunday riding a three-game winning streak in which the offense finished each game with at least three touchdowns and 6.0 EPA. That was the longest streak for Rodgers since 2021 with Green Bay, and the longest for Arthur Smith, the Steelers' offensive coordinator, at any point in his career as an NFL play caller.
Metcalf picked a terrible time to incur a suspension, in other words.
"You can't let him off the hook totally," another exec said. "You have to set some precedent that we are not going to stand for this bulls---, which is the exact reason Seattle moved on from him."
4. Whoever plays QB for the Packers under Matt LaFleur shines. Does it matter?
Rodgers ranked fifth in EPA per pass play across his four seasons as the Packers' starting quarterback under coach Matt LaFleur. His successor, Jordan Love, ranks sixth since taking over in 2023.
Even Love's fill-in, Willis, has shined in three starts under LaFleur (of 31 QBs to start more than one game in those three specific weeks, he ranks first among them in EPA per pass play).
It's a leading reason LaFleur would be highly sought after to run an offense and/or coach a team if he left Green Bay.
But if you're a Packers fan, watching the Eagles defeat the Bills on Sunday without completing even one pass in the second half could not have been pleasant.
Just a day earlier, Green Bay lost at home to Baltimore 41-24 with Willis completing 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards and a score (he was 10 of 13 for 155 yards after halftime).
Willis' EPA per pass play (.746) was the highest for a Packers starting quarterback in the regular season since Rodgers against the Raiders in 2019. The figure ranks eighth out of 411 regular-season starts by Green Bay quarterbacks since 2000, per TruMedia. He also rushed for 60 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries.
Willis was exceptional, and the Packers still got run out of Lambeau Field. Green Bay became the first team since 2000 to string together 22 consecutive drives without a punt while not winning a game. The previous high mark was 16. Seven of those 22 drives ended with a giveaway (two fumbles, one interception) or turnover on downs (four).
Green Bay's defense was not the first to let Derrick Henry rush for at least 200 yards. Henry has done it seven times in his career, more than any player in league history. But this was the second time a Ravens team with Tyler Huntley at quarterback lit up a Packers defense.
The Ravens have played 17 games with Huntley in the lineup at quarterback instead of Jackson. Their points per game average in two games against Green Bay (35.5) is more than twice their average in the other 15 Huntley starts (14.7).
Sound familiar? It should.
Sixty quarterbacks have faced the Packers in the regular season since LaFleur became coach in 2019. Drew Brees and Justin Herbert rank among the top 10 in EPA per pass play from that list, but so do Bo Nix, Jameis Winston, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones and, yes, Huntley.
5. The Buccaneers are skidding toward the finish line. Is the end near?
The Buccaneers are 3.5-point favorites to beat Carolina at home in Week 18 and claim a fifth consecutive NFC South title. That's a great place to be, except Tampa Bay has lost seven of its past eight games, including four in a row after losing 20-17 at Miami on Sunday.
If the 7-9 Bucs do beat 8-8 Carolina next week, they'll win their division with a losing record for the second time in four seasons. That could become tougher to pull off in the future if the Saints have found a franchise quarterback in Tyler Shough, who looks more promising each week.
What's gone wrong in Tampa?
Some of their issues reflect simple regression. The Bucs' 6-2 start to the season included a 4-0 mark in games decided by three or fewer points. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in those games since. The Bucs have lost four in a row by four points or fewer for the first time in franchise history.
Some opponents think the defensive scheme under head coach and play caller Todd Bowles could use a refresh. That is tougher to prove because injuries and personnel can play outsized roles.
But as the league has shifted toward split-safety deployments to limit explosive gains, Bowles has remained oriented around single-safety structures and blitzing. That has worked for him across many seasons and still works in Tampa when the personnel is right.
Whether the approach makes the Bucs more vulnerable when injuries strike, especially against offenses proficient with motion and play-action, is a question for the team to answer.
"When the players play well, it is no problem for them," one opposing offensive coach said. "But as far as structurally, are they outdated?"
Whatever the case, a defense that ranked 10th in EPA per play in 2022 has ranked 18th in each of the past three seasons, including through Week 17 this season.
The pass rush has suffered without interior rusher Calijah Kancey (out since Week 2) and without getting much from outside rusher Haason Reddick, who had 50.5 sacks from 2020 to '23 but has only 3.5 since.
Non-injury turnover in the back seven suggests weakness there.
The Bucs have also lost some of the guardrails that helped quarterback Baker Mayfield play at maximum efficiency.
Both starting guards suffered season-ending injuries. Both tackles missed time early in the season and Tristan Wirfs missed Sunday's game with a toe injury. Running back Bucky Irving missed seven games. Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have played only three games together (Evans and first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka have played seven together).
An interesting offseason in Tampa is approaching, perhaps faster than the team envisioned just six months after signing Bowles to an extension through 2028.
6. Two-minute drill: The Bears and their fans should not take division titles for granted, but this guy can be excused if he does.
Not many saw it coming before the season, but Joe Thuney, the guard Chicago acquired in a trade with Kansas City, had reason to feel differently.
Thuney has won nine division titles in 10 NFL seasons with three franchises. If you like quarterback wins as a stat, you'll absolutely love lineman wins. Thuney's teams have 136 of them in the regular season and playoffs since he entered the NFL as a third-round pick in 2016, most of any player in that span.
"I think Joe’s record speaks for itself," Thuney's first NFL coach, Bill Belichick, said by text Sunday. "I can’t imagine that any player has a better record with three different organizations!"
Wilder yet, Thuney's timing has been nearly impeccable. He left the Patriots one year after Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay, enduring a 7-9 season with New England in 2020, his only one without a division title. Thuney then left the Chiefs last offseason, just in time to miss Kansas City's first losing season since 2012, before Andy Reid became coach.
Thuney landed in Chicago just as Ben Johnson became coach, and the team doubled down on upgrading the offensive line, which has been a major reason for the improved offense.
Lucky guy, right? Smart, too.
Thuney, who earned an accounting degree from North Carolina State in less than three years, famously sandbagged the Wonderlic test as a college prospect, completing only 39 of the 50 questions. Why? Because an adviser told him NFL line coaches valued players who were smart, but not too smart (Thuney got all 39 correct before stopping).
• Henry's push: Untimely fumbles and the Ravens' curious late-game usage plan in Week 16 have put Henry in the news for unfortunate reasons this season. His 36-carry, 216-yard, four-touchdown domination of the Packers on Saturday night refocused attention where it belongs, on Henry's incredible career, which will likely land him a bust in Canton.
Henry, now the record holder with seven games gaining at least 200 rushing yards, led the NFL in carries four times in five seasons before signing with Baltimore in 2024 for his age-30 season. He was a prime candidate for sudden decline. Instead, Henry has proved his greatness with 3,390 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns in 33 games with Baltimore.
The table above shows Henry ranking third in league history for rushing yards in career game Nos. 120-152, which covers his tenure with Baltimore. Only Barry Sanders and Tiki Barber had more yards over that career span. Only John Riggins had more rushing touchdowns (38 to 32).
• Not feeling worse about Chargers: It's tough to see the Chargers making a deep playoff push with their offensive line in such bad shape, but they easily could have beaten Houston, which possesses arguably the NFL's top defensive front, on Saturday.
Losing by four points (20-16) when squandering 9.7 EPA on borderline fluke plays should give the Chargers hope in a rematch.
Here's the accounting on that 9.7 EPA: 4.3 lost on Oronde Gadsden II's dropped pass near the goal line, which turned into an interception; 2.8 lost on the usually reliable Cameron Dicker missing a 32-yard field-goal try; 1.7 more lost on a late Keenan Allen drop; and 0.9 lost on Dicker's missed PAT.
Every losing team can circle a handful of plays in each game that might have swung the outcome, but these were basic plays carrying outsized impact.
• Not feeling different about Texans: It's much easier envisioning Houston making a deep playoff run with its dominant defense, which ranks first in EPA per play. But the Texans rank 26th on the offensive side, including 18th during their current eight-game winning streak. They are 6-0 since Week 10 in games decided by one score. They won't have to win close games if their offense comes around.
• Seattle's defense covers: Seattle held Carolina to 139 yards and 2.7 per play, the Panthers' second-lowest totals in 43 games with Bryce Young in the lineup at quarterback (Carolina had 124 yards and 2.3 per play against Jacksonville in Week 17 of 2023).
The Seahawks' offense started four drives in opposing territory, a total Seattle last exceeded against San Francisco in 2013, when the Legion of Boom defense was ascending to championship form. Seattle scored 21 of its points against Carolina on drives spanning 21, 29 and 25 yards.
Carolina batted two of Sam Darnold's passes, forced two Darnold fumbles (one recovered), intercepted one Darnold pass in the end zone, sacked the Seattle quarterback three times and still lost by 17.
The Seahawks, like the Texans, have a championship defense and questions on offense. They rank 1-2 in combined EPA on defense and special teams this season. Neither ranks among the top half in offensive EPA per play, including lately (they are a combined 13-1 since Week 11 despite Houston ranking 23rd and Seattle 24th in offensive EPA per play over that span).
• Batted passes: Darnold owns the second-highest rate of batted passes this season (3.55 percent) behind only Trevor Lawrence (3.58 percent). Both had two batted Sunday. Lawrence has had 19 batted this season, compared to 16 for Darnold. Caleb Williams is the only other player above 3.0 percent (his rate jumps to No. 1 if we exclude plays outside the pocket, where batted passes are rare).
• From Nagy to Flores: Kansas City’s Matt Nagy and Minnesota’s Brian Flores are among the high-profile former head coaches working as coordinators without contracts for next season.
Working without a deal makes sense for Nagy in theory because he isn’t the full-time play caller for the Chiefs. He could gain those duties elsewhere if he took another job as coordinator.
There’s no obvious reason why Flores would play out his deal as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator. Like Nagy, he could take a head-coaching job whether or not he’s signed as a coordinator for next season.
Is there more to the story in Minnesota?
The Vikings gave coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah extensions with raises last offseason. They led the league in cash spending for players in 2025.
Is Minnesota about to go younger and cheaper on defense? Could that include on the staff if Flores walks?
Daronte Jones, Minnesota's defensive passing game coordinator, interviewed for multiple coordinator jobs last offseason and made a strong impression, according to those who interviewed him. Execs from other teams presume he’d be a natural Flores successor.
• Steelers futility note:Per CBS researcher Doug Clawson, the Steelers are winless in their past five games against teams that were eight or more games below .500 at kickoff. That ties the longest streak in league history. The losses include Sunday to the 3-12 Browns, plus games against the 2023 Patriots (2-10), 2023 Cardinals (2-10) and 2020 Bengals (2-10-1), plus a tie against the 2021 Lions (0-8).
• Bengals must have been bored: Joe Burrow completing a pass to 345-pound offensive lineman Cody Ford for a 21-yard gain against Arizona was one of the funnier plays of the season if you weren’t affiliated with the Cardinals.
Bengals OL Cody Ford splits out wide and makes a play!
• 49ers on verge: If the 49ers beat Seattle at home in Week 18 to earn the NFC’s top seed, Kyle Shanahan wins Coach of the Year, right? Mike Vrabel and Liam Coen also have strong cases, and if Seattle beats the 49ers, how about Mike Macdonald?
Quarterback narratives are also at stake in the Seahawks-49ers game.
Brock Purdy, who accounted for five touchdowns in the 49ers’ 42-38 victory over Chicago, ranks second to Maye in EPA per pass play this season.
Darnold, whose late sack-fumble helped the 49ers to a 17-13 victory in Week 1, has strong production overall, but not lately.
Since Week 11, Purdy has 19 total touchdowns and six turnovers. Darnold has eight and 10, respectively, as opponents have stopped prioritizing run defense as much. Seattle is far superior on defense. Will that be enough?