Pete Hegseth has weathered a string of scandals in his first year, including a controversial air strike in the Caribbean and the Signal-gate national security leak.

But high-ranking Pentagon staff are betting the Secretary of War won't last much longer, running clandestine 'betting pools' on the date of his removal as they describe the atmosphere under his command as a precarious game of survival. 

Money is changing hands between officers, with varying odds offered on whether Hegseth hits the one-year and 18-month mark, three Army staff told the Daily Mail. 

That would place his departure - or ouster - around July 2026. 

The sweepstakes are ongoing in various offices, described as fantasy football-style games that act as a 'coping mechanism' for personnel who say Hegseth runs the Pentagon like the unruly Army captain he once was rather than a distinguished Cabinet secretary. 

'There are a lot of people in each group - maybe 20 or 30. They are all mostly done on text or Signal because nobody wants to get caught doing that on an official platform,' the source explained.

Insiders say Hegseth's downfall could come as a result of misplaced priorities, like an obsessive focus on uniforms and facial hair over a pressing national security threat or military mishap, according to one army source.

This internal friction is reflected in the current betting markets, where Hegseth's job security is increasingly viewed as volatile. 

Jennifer Rauchet and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth attend the 48th Kennedy Center Honors at The Kennedy Center on December 7

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth walks by the Brigade of Midshipman before the start of the game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Air Force Falcons at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on October 4

An exclusive look inside senior offices of the Department of War reveals a catastrophic breakdown in trust and confidence. Insiders accuse Hegseth of having the wrong priorities, while expressing deep alarm over his handling of the recent controversial Caribbean boat strikes

The revelations come as the Secretary of War faces intense scrutiny over the lethal airstrikes on a drug boat in the Caribbean, where his own support in Congress appears to be wavering

According to Kalshi, Hegseth remains among the top contenders in the 'Next Cabinet Member Out,' his odds having spiked following the controversy surrounding the video of a double strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean.

Hegseth has eroded some trust inside the Pentagon with sudden firings of top commanders sparking paranoia among colleagues, according to insiders. The atmosphere was likened to 'Game of Thrones' by one senior staffer whose boss works closely with the Secretary of War.