Week 18 watch guide for NFL playoff seeding, draft order
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Jacob Robinson
What's at stake in Week 18, from playoff positioning to the No. 1 draft slot. Plus, comparison Drew Brees and Eli Manning HoF worthiness
Understanding playoff positioning typically requires a mix of math, if-then statements and scenario-mapping. Not fun.
Thankfully, our visuals team put together the best product I’ve seen to help you understand every seeding scenario. First, two of the most basic:
The AFC North
Ravens at Steelers on Sunday night will determine the division, with the winner landing the AFC’s No. 4 seed and likely hosting the Texans in the wild-card round. It might also impact the futures of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh.
It’s a big game for Aaron Rodgers, who led the Steelers (9-7) to a 27-22 victory in Baltimore in early December while relying heavily on since-suspended receiver DK Metcalf, whose 148 yards accounted for 52 percent of the team’s aerial total. Rodgers struggled without him in last week’s loss to the Browns.
Lamar Jackson is back for Baltimore (8-8) after his first full week of practice since early November. Derrick Henry is rolling, the Ravens’ defense has been one of the league’s better units since their Week 7 bye and Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points at BetMGM. I’ll take the Ravens.
The NFC South
Saturday’s Panthers-Buccaneers game is a win-and-you’re-in scenario solely for Carolina (8-8), because even if Tampa Bay (7-9) wins, the Panthers could still finish ahead via tiebreaker (if the 3.5-point-favorite Falcons beat the Saints).
Despite a 1-7 record since a Week 9 bye, including last week’s loss to the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins, the Buccaneers are 3-point favorites in what might be the final game of 32-year-old Mike Evans’ career. The Bucs could be due for some luck after losing the past four games by a combined 11 points. Vic Tafur rolls with Tampa in his Week 18 picks against the spread.
Don’t dismiss the Panthers, who won this matchup 23-20 just two weeks ago. Joe Person, who covers the team for us, broke down the biggest matchups of this game here, picking Carolina to win by four. This feels like a game decided by a big fourth-quarter play.
No. 1 seed: AFC
The AFC’s top seed could be the Broncos (13-3), Patriots (13-3) or Jaguars (12-4). I’d expect it to go to Denver, a 12.5-point favorite over the Justin Herbert-less Chargers (rest), who are giving Trey Lance his first start in L.A.
The NFC’s top seed is simply whoever wins between the Seahawks (13-3) and the 49ers (12-4) on Saturday. That game is in San Francisco, with Seattle a 1.5-point favorite. The Niners won this matchup 17-13 in Week 1, but it was close. Catch those highlights here.
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More at stake in Week 18
The Jaguars or Texans (11-5) could win the AFC South, the only other divisional race yet to be decided, depending on a variety of factors. To avoid scrambling your brain during this lovely holiday season, I’d again recommend our visual playoff picture. Here’s the full schedule, with ⭐️s for division title games:
Don’t forget the No. 1 pick
The Raiders (2-14) and Giants (3-13) are the only teams with shots, and both are expected to lose, of course. Las Vegas hosts the Chiefs as a 5.5-point underdog while New York is a 3.5-point home dog against the Cowboys. A loss gives the Raiders the top pick, while the Giants get it if … the Raiders, Browns (at Bengals) and Falcons (at Saints) win.
Remember, I found that over the past 25 years, the first quarterback drafted has become the best pro only 40 percent of the time. So hope isn’t lost after No. 1 (though you’d rather have 40 percent than any of the percentages that follow it).
As for the top prospects, quarterbacks Dante Moore (Oregon) and Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) helped their teams to dominant victories in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals and will face off in the Peach Bowl semifinal on Jan. 9. We preview that game here.
A quick note from Ted Nguyen before we enter the Eli Manning debate.
What Ted’s Seeing: Room to improve for Bills and Bears
The NFL teams that usually turn playoff appearances into Super Bowl runs are those that have found ways to rectify glaring weaknesses. Let’s take a look at some faltering units as they head into this postseason:
Bills run defense.
With Josh Allen at the helm and one of the best rushing attacks in the league, the Bills have a shot against any given opponent.
The problem? Buffalo has had one of the league’s worst run defenses for most of the season, and that tends to matter in the playoffs.
The good news: The Bills just had their best game defending the run, limiting the Eagles to 82 yards on 26 carries (3.2) with a rushing success rate of 33.3 percent. Buffalo confused Philly’s run blockers with run blitzes, gap exchanges and a ton of movement up front.
Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich doesn’t need to be rolling the dice the entire day, but if he succeeds in clutch situations, the Bills can be a dangerous team.
Bears defense.
Their offense is certainly explosive enough to win in shootouts, but Caleb Williams is only in his second season and first in coach Ben Johnson’s offense, so there is some question about how their offensive production will translate to the postseason.
We’ll start with the positive: The Bears lead the league in takeaways with 32, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does as good a job as any coach at creating confusion on third-and-long.
The problem? As much as you work on takeaways in practice with defensive disguises and ball-stripping drills, there is an element of luck involved. In the two games when they didn’t get a takeaway, they gave up 30 points to the Ravens and 52 to the Lions.
Another problem is actually getting to third-and-long. The Bears rank 28th in opponent average distance to first on third down (6.5) and 28th in early-down defensive success rate. If the Bears run into the Rams or 49ers, it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to slow them down.
The full story has more on the Rams defense, Texans passing offense and 49ers defense. Back to you, Jacob.
The Great Eli Manning Debate
For the first time, Drew Brees is eligible to enter Canton as a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He has the bona fides you’d expect of a first-ballot inductee:
Super Bowl MVP, 13-time Pro Bowler, five-time All-Pro and two-time Offensive Player of the Year.
He led the NFL in passing yards seven times and in completion percentage six times, retiring as the NFL’s all-time passing yards leader (currently No. 2 to Brady) and career leader in completion percentage (67.7).
Brees’ list of greatest on-field moments is longer still, and his off-field leadership was nearly as important for his adopted city of New Orleans. But if Brees is the list’s most obvious entrant, Eli Manning is its enigma. In his second year of eligibility, his resume remains widely debated.
Then again, Manning was never among the top quarterbacks of his era. He made just four Pro Bowls in 16 seasons, was never an All-Pro and has a career passer rating tied with Joe Flacco (84.1).
My colleague Ian O’Connor thinks Manning should get in, but his story nearing 1,000 comments illustrates the struggle of assessing Manning’s legacy. I don’t think Manning’s a Hall of Famer, but that decision is now in the hands of the selection committee.
💵 How much for … George Pickens, who said he’s prepared to talk about his contract with Jerry Jones? Dak Prescott gave Pickens some advice: “Don’t let it get personal.”
❓Do you keep … Chris Ballard, the Colts general manager whose teams are 70-77-1 with just two playoff games in nine seasons? It’s one of five major questions for Indy this offseason.
👎 Sidelined. Saints receiver Chris Olave had a goal of playing 17 games. He’ll narrowly miss it after being sidelined due to blood clots, though 100 catches, 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns made it a career year for the 25-year-old.
