What we learned about the NHL in December: How the Sabres got their groove back
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:Shayna Goldman
Can the Sabres end their 14-year playoff drought? Plus Mark Stone has the Golden Knight's power play cooking again and stars of the month.
The Eastern Conference is so tight that the Buffalo Sabres were never truly out of the playoff picture. There were two ways to look at Buffalo’s placement in the standings at the end of November. The glass-half-empty perspective emphasized that the Sabres sat in 16th place, with 24 points and the only team below a .500 record in the East. The glass-half-full view was a reminder that they were only five points out of a wild-card seed and 10 points behind first in the conference.
But with a 14-year playoff drought, the Sabres haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt, so the glass-half-empty approach was the only way to view things.
Until this nine-game winning streak.
The Sabres started to show positive signs before this streak began — it aligned with Rasmus Dahlin’s return to the team in mid-November. Over the next 12 games (until the streak started on Dec. 9 against the Oilers), Buffalo moved up to third in the league with a 56.6 percent xG rate, thanks to some really strong play on both ends of the ice at five-on-five. What held them back was a combined 0.870 save percentage in all situations, and some shaky special teams.
So what’s changed over the last nine games?
One thing that stands out is the Sabres’ tendency to score first in games, with the opening goal in seven of nine wins. The best teams can win despite falling behind early, but Buffalo hasn’t yet built that foundation or resiliency. Before this streak started, the Sabres only led in 28 percent of their all-situation minutes. Now, over the last nine games, they’ve had the lead for about 55 percent of the time.
That context is important to keep in mind when digging into the Sabres’ play below the surface because teams generally play differently with a lead. In Buffalo’s case, the team has been really solid defensively at five-on-five, with the goaltending to back it up (and that goaltending, led by Alex Lyon, has been even more clutch in short-handed situations). But the team still has to work on maintaining an offensive edge while defending a lead. Since the power play still isn’t a threat, it’s even more important at five-on-five. Over the last nine games, Buffalo’s generated a league-low 2.26 xG per 60.
So that is the area to improve on the fly, to turn this run into a potential playoff return. It’s even more pressing if Lyon is out for an extended period of time. The odds are only improving as the streak continues — Dom Luszczyszyn’s model went from 10 percent odds on Dec. 10 to 44 percent ahead of Tuesday’s matchups. With this streak, the Sabres built themselves a path back into the playoff picture; now they have sustain that momentum.
Mark Stone’s PP impact in Vegas
The Golden Knights’ power play looked unstoppable to open the season, with nine power-play goals in six games. While Mark Stone only scored one of those goals, his impact was clear — he earned six primary assists and one secondary assist in just six games.
With Stone, Vegas generated chances at a clip of 12.6 xG per 60, and scored at a ridiculous rate of 17.5 goals per 60. But the Golden Knights couldn’t keep that momentum up while he was sidelined.
Tic-tac-toe passing from Vegas' PP sets up Dorofeyev's league leading 4th goal of the season 🤧🤧🤧 pic.twitter.com/U86Ej5P376
The go-to play was actually pretty simple, as pictured below with the NHL’s goal visualizer. Jack Eichel would send the puck to Stone, who generally hovers around the goal line. And there, he could either take his own chance or feed quick passes to Tomas Hertl (in the slot) or Pavel Dorofeyev (in the right circle).
The Golden Knights experimented with Mitch Marner in Stone’s position and gave Braeden Bowman looks on PP1. But no one could replicate his role, or consistently thread those passes through. So in 16 games without the winger, Vegas’ power play efficiency tanked; the team’s xG rate slipped to 9.89 per 60, and its scoring pace dropped to 6.73 per 60.
Stone’s return clearly has reinvigorated Vegas’ power play over the last 15 games — the team is back up to an xG rate of 11.9 per 60, and scoring 10.9 goals per 60. So while he isn’t the most consistent scoring threat on that top unit, he is the ultimate facilitator to its success.
Edmonton’s red-hot power play
Speaking of dangerous power plays, how about the Oilers?
Edmonton’s power play has been hot all year, but it’s been absolutely scorching in December. The team has generated 19 power-play goals in 46 opportunities, operating at a 41.3 percent rate. When accounting for minutes played, it shakes out to 19 goals per 60. And there is a lot of substance below the surface to support it — 14.2 xG per 60, to be exact, which ranks second to the Red Wings this month.
It’s no surprise that a unit that consists of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard is elite. That’s been a trademark of the Oilers throughout this core era. Add Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and a healthy Zach Hyman (after experimenting with fifth forwards such as David Tomasek and Jack Roslovic earlier this year), and it makes for a star-powered unit with a ton of chemistry.
That primary unit has pushed Edmonton up to a season-wide scoring rate of 14.7 goals per 60 and an overall power play efficiency of 34.9 percent. For context, that’s higher than any team in the entire salary cap era; the closest match is the 2022-23 Oilers, whose power play converted on 32.4 percent of its opportunities. It’s even more impressive because Edmonton actually sits 27th this season in power-play opportunities per game, with 2.73 per game.
So while the Oilers still have work to do in their own end, from a defense and goaltending perspective, this scoring advantage has helped Edmonton climb up to first in the Pacific Division.
J.J. Moser’s glow-up in Tampa Bay
Two years ago, the big question was how J.J. Moser was going to adjust to his new surroundings, in a tough role, on his off side. He had experience shouldering matchup minutes in Arizona and playing on the right, but he generally played his best on the left.
Moser proved he was up to the task last season and became an important part of the Lightning’s supporting cast on the back end as Victor Hedman’s partner. But this year, he has really taken that importance up a level — both on Hedman’s right and on the left in Hedman’s absence. That versatility has been key for a team that has had to navigate a lot of injuries, and Moser has absolutely thrived.
In between earning a 60 percent xG rate in 160 five-on-five minutes with Hedman, Moser shifted to the left and maintained that pace with Darren Raddysh. And in that new-look top pair’s 313 minutes, Tampa Bay has outscored opponents 17-4. That plus-13 goal differential ranks third among defense pairs, behind only Cale Makar-Devon Toews and Jakob Chychrun-Matt Roy.
This year’s two-way growth has brought Moser up to the level of a No. 2 defenseman. And that makes the 25-year-old’s eight-year extension even more cost-effective with a $6.8 million AAV — especially with last summer’s defensive market in mind.
J.J. Moser's new deal looks like a great one if he can keep up this season's massive leap. The expected value falls right between where he was last season (a no. 4) and this year's new level (a no. 2). pic.twitter.com/FlzGDL1QS8
A few weeks ago, I analyzed what Stamkos has left in the tank. At the time, he had finally started to turn things around on the scoresheet with four goals in five games (after scoring only four goals through his first 22). Now, 16 games (and 13 goals) deep into that turnaround, some patterns are forming below the surface that add more substance to his scoring boost.
Two things stood out in his first 22 games: Stamkos wasn’t getting enough pucks on net or driving well enough to the scoring areas, especially at five-on-five. It wasn’t for a lack of trying; he was attempting 10.3 shots per 60, but it only connected to 3.84 shots per 60 going on goal. His shot quality, at the time, only added up to 0.53 xG per 60.
Since Nov. 26, that’s the element of his game that has ticked up the most. He is now attempting shots at a rate of 14.2 per 60, with 8.38 reaching the net. It’s not just the volume but where those shots are coming from: Stamkos is concentrating his chances to the slot area, which has bumped his xG to 1.56 per 60.
Changing centers seems to be one of the keys here, since the combination of Stamkos and Erik Haula didn’t lead to much quality offense, as evidenced by the heat map on the left. But with Ryan O’Reilly, Stamkos is back to playing to his strengths, regardless of who is playing on their right wing. That duo is consistently driving to the middle of the ice, as pictured below in red, with a lot of those shots coming off Stamkos’ stick.
Via HockeyViz
O’Reilly’s defensive game helps keep Nashville in control, along with his ability to regain puck possession. So does his playmaking. All Three Zones has O’Reilly generating 3.25 high-danger passes per 60, which stands out league-wide. And that was on display just last Monday night when his primary passes set up Stamkos for two goals in a comeback win against the Mammoth.
Jack Hughes’ return alone won’t fix the Devils’ finishing issues
The Devils’ five-on-five offense wasn’t a strength before Jack Hughes was sidelined with injury — the team’s xG (2.52 per 60) and scoring (2.32 per 60) both ranked in the bottom half of the league. But that gap only added up to New Jersey slipping three goals below expected, and the team at least had the power play to make up for scoring lapses.
And then Hughes was sidelined, and that weakness was even more strained. The Devils’ xG rate stayed pretty consistent, but their scoring rate plummeted to 31st in the league with just 1.77 goals per 60 and the power play wasn’t able to make up for it.
If Hughes’ return reset the lineup and helped this team flip a switch, it wouldn’t really be a focal point. But the team only mustered one goal in his return (against the Sabres, which he scored) and one goal against the Islanders, before falling 4-3 to Washington.
Add up all of those scoring woes in 13 games this month (before Tuesday’s matchup in Toronto), and it combines to the Devils falling 15 goals below expected. That is the worst mark this month by a pretty wide margin (with Carolina second to last, with a minus-10.7).
Getting Hughes up to full speed will help close that gap, but it’s clear that this team also needs more goal support down the lineup behind him.
Edvinsson-Seider’s excellence
Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson aren’t just the Red Wings’ top defensemen; they have emerged as one of the best shutdown pairs in the entire league. In about 500 five-on-five minutes, this pair has a 61.8 percent xG rate, which ranks sixth among all defense pairs (with at least 100 minutes together).
What’s fueling that? The duo is incredibly stingy defensively, giving up only 2.16 xG against per 60 despite having to match up to top offensive threats. It starts with strong zone entry defense and continues with the pair’s ability to close passing lanes and pivot back to offense. Seider’s puck retrievals help get the Red Wings get back in control, to generate an impressive 3.50 xG per 60 with these two deployed.
That all-around play has been key all season, and shone in Detroit’s last two wins. Sunday against the Maple Leafs, they spent about 13 minutes head-to-head with Auston Matthews. In that time, Detroit had an 11-9 edge in shot attempts and a 62 percent xG rate. A couple of games earlier against the Stars, this team went up 10-4 in shot attempts against Mikko Rantanen’s line, while breaking even in xG.
With this pair cooking on the back end, the Red Wings have a strong foundation to lean on — and it’s helped this team earn a sparkling 10-3-1 record in December.
Askarov’s struggles
Yaroslav Askarov had a fantastic November. He gave his team a chance to win with nine quality starts in 10 appearances. Over that span, he saved 18 goals above expected and was absolutely lights-out in short-handed situations.
December hasn’t been as kind, though. After an average game against the Mammoth to open the month, he failed to record a quality start in his next six outings and allowed 6.73 goals above expected. Interestingly enough, this slide came during “easier” nights for Askarov in terms of shot volume and quality against, and included opponents such as the Flames, Kraken and struggling Penguins.
Monday night, at least, he rebounded against the Ducks with his best performance in a month. Askarov faced 63 unblocked shots worth 5.97 xG, and saved 2.13 goals above expected. If that’s a sign that he is back after a tough stretch and ready to handle the chaos on a nightly basis, it should help the Sharks hang around the wild-card picture.
December Stars
McDavid is on another level right now. He has been dynamite on the power play and an offensive force at five-on-five. After a scoreless outing to open December against the Wild, he is in the midst of a 13-game point streak where he has 13 goals and 33 points. He has nine multi-point efforts along the way. He has a plus-7.2 edge in Game Score on the next best player this month.
Macklin Celebrini is proving that he isn’t just a rising talent to watch — he is already proving to be one of the most dynamic stars in the league. With 23 points in 13 games, he has 60 points on the season, which puts him on pace for 126. That’s impressive for any forward, let alone a second-year player. Only McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have scored more at this point in this season. And there is a lot of substance behind it, in December alone, he earned a 59 percent xG rate at five-on-five, and helped the Sharks outscore opponents 20-10.
The third star could have gone a few ways. Ilya Sorokin’s outstanding play, before he was sidelined with injury, deserves a mention. MacKinnon is obviously always an easy pick to highlight, while Matt Boldy has earned some hype as well. But Seider gets the nod, thanks to his strong two-way play throughout December. He is at the heart of the Red Wings’ success this season, which is rightfully earning him some early Norris Trophy hype and should gain him some Hart buzz.
