When the Patriots’ buses arrived back in New England after their trip to New York — during which they dismantled the Jets — hats and T-shirts commemorating their AFC East title were waiting for them. They had watched on the bus as the Buffalo Bills lost, clinching the division for the Pats and ending the Bills’ five-year reign atop the division.

But as the Patriots head into the final week of the regular season (their finale against the Miami Dolphins will kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday to line up with the Denver Broncos’ start time), much remains unknown.

The Patriots could finish with the first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference, or they could fall as low as the No. 3 seed if they lose to the Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans. The most likely outcome, though, is the No. 2 seed, which has a 60 percent chance of occurring, according to our playoff simulator.

We won’t know who the Patriots are playing in the wild-card round (if anyone) until Sunday night, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start looking ahead at potential matchups. So let’s rank their four potential first-round playoff foes from the team they match up worst against to the opponent they should most want to face.

First goal ✅ pic.twitter.com/yK8kWKVfP9

— z – New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 29, 2025

4. Buffalo Bills

The argument here is based more on feel than stats. Statistically, the Bills aren’t that much better than the Chargers, Jaguars or Texans.

But two things make the Bills the scariest potential matchup for the Patriots: experience and the quarterback.

Josh Allen is the defending NFL MVP. He’s carrying that team. And two weeks ago, he came into Gillette Stadium and hung 35 points on the Patriots, sending them off the field with their only loss in the last 13 games.

And while there are plenty of questions about the Bills roster beyond Allen and running back James Cook, this is a team that has proven it can win in the playoffs. Coming to Foxboro for a playoff game under the lights wouldn’t be too big for them. They haven’t gotten over the hump and reached the Super Bowl, but the Bills have won at least one playoff game in each of the last five years.

For a young and inexperienced Patriots team, that would make for a tough matchup.

3. Houston Texans

Unlike the Bills, the concern here is more based on the matchup. The Texans have an unbelievable defensive line that will give any offensive line issues, let alone a Patriots unit that has been playing without its starting left tackle and left guard. While the New England front five is much improved from a year ago, this would be tough sledding.