Why our US alliance is under threat in 2026 – from Trump
The US president said it was “full steam ahead” on AUKUS, but can Australia rely on him – for that and much more?
Opinion
December 30, 2025 — 5.00am
December 30, 2025 — 5.00am
As the year draws to a close, this country is in anguished mourning, distress, fear and uncertainty about the government’s ability to act on antisemitism and keep Australia safe. Australia’s social fabric is in the balance.
But another huge issue is in the balance. US President Donald Trump is exercising his power in ways that pose an existential threat to the alliance of the past 75 years. It is time to understand this and face up to it.
US President Donald Trump following his meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on Sunday. Credit: AP/Alex Brandon
In looking back on 2025, the easy conclusion to reach is that Australia’s relationship with the United States under Trump has gone well. Catastrophes averted. Australia came through.
A lot of credit can be taken by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his government. The PM was lambasted for months by the opposition and the media because no face-to-face meeting with Trump had occurred. Trump gazumped that in the White House driveway. “We love Australia,” he said. No golden gifts or gongs needed to seal this mateship.
For months, the Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS project was reported to be in mortal danger. Not so. “Full steam ahead,” Trump declared.
AUSMIN was as solid as ever. Their joint statement, building on the leaders’ summit, pledged to “advance the safety, security, and prosperity of our two countries and the broader Indo-Pacific region”.
So the year-end assessment from all this work is that the relationship is on track, and that it is business as usual.
But it’s not. Trump has changed the world. The tectonic plates have shifted. We have not even begun to discuss what this means. All we are doing now is day-to-day management – tariffs, AUKUS, AUSMIN – as if nothing transformational is occurring.
Trump is intent – with his obsessions of anti-immigrant nativism, anti-trade protectionism and utter dominance via America First nationalism – on destroying the global architecture, from the United Nations to the World Health Organisation to the Paris Agreement on climate and many others. Australia is tied to all of them.
